New Strategy Signals Nuclear Reductions

On the radar: New Pentagon strategy on nuclear cuts; In need of rethinking; Iran and West working toward nuclear talks; Nuclear policy experts on DoD strategy; Problems with open-ended pressure; Sanctions hit the bazaar; and Nuclear policy in 2012.

January 6, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Deterrence at lower levels - Yesterday President Obama unveiled the Pentagon’s new strategy guidance. On nuclear weapons, the strategy says, “It is possible that our deterrence goals can be achieved with a smaller nuclear force, which would reduce the number of nuclear weapons in our inventory as well as their role in U.S. national security strategy." http://owl.li/8ks88

Quote - “I do think it's that -- our judgment than we -- that we can maintain deterrence at lower levels of forces, but I will defer any discussion of specific programmatic details to the budget when it rolls out,” said Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Michèle Flournoy. http://owl.li/8ks9Y

Editorial - “In particular, we applaud the insistence that U.S. “deterrence goals can be achieved with a smaller nuclear force,” writes Bloomberg in an editorial. “The nuclear issue requires a complete rethinking of long-term strategy and philosophy.”

--The editorial gives attention to Sen. Tom Coburn’s plan to save $79 billion through nuclear reductions. Interestingly, the editorial calls for renovating the B-52 fleet instead of building a new bomber. It also suggests upgrading U.S. ALCMs and argues for spending more on low-yield nuclear weapons. http://owl.li/8kDMO

Iran talks - Turkey’s foreign minister said that Iran has accepted an offer to resume nuclear talks with the West; an EU official says they’re still waiting for Iran to respond to the invite. Laura Rozen reports.

--”Will it be a real negotiation or just another exchange of ultimatums?" asked Trita Parsi. http://owl.li/8ksmU

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How the strategy played - “Further reductions in U.S. nuclear forces and scaling back planned investments in new strategic nuclear weapons systems and warhead production facilities make both strategic and economic sense,” said Kingston Reif of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. http://owl.li/8ksbt

--”We need to make smart decisions that avoid wasting scarce resources to modernize and deploy excessive numbers of nuclear weapons for decades to come,” said Daryl Kimball and Tom Collina of the Arms Control Association. http://owl.li/8kscA

”Billions of dollars can be saved over the next decade by reducing the nuclear forces and removing nuclear doctrine further from the warfighting thinking that characterized the Cold War and which is still prevalent in today’s planning,” said Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. http://owl.li/8ksg7

--”The President and the Pentagon are crafting a security strategy that makes more sense for the United States’ strategic needs, nuclear assets, and budget priorities. With today’s announcement, the Pentagon recognized that a smarter strategy might mean fewer nuclear bombs,” writes your humble editor for Ploughshares Fund. http://owl.li/8ksiF

Counterproductive Sanctions - “the White House's embrace of open-ended pressure means that it has backed itself into a policy of regime change, something Washington has little ability to influence,” writes Suzanne Maloney in Foreign Affairs. “The more Washington corners Tehran, the higher the value of a nuclear deterrent becomes in the eyes of the leadership.” http://owl.li/8ksl4

Grim view in Tehran - “At a time when U.S. officials are increasingly confident that economic and political pressure alone may succeed in curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the mood here has turned bleak and belligerent as Iranians prepare grimly for a period of prolonged hardship and, they fear, war.” Thomas Erdbrink and Joby Warrick on the view from Iran. http://owl.li/8ksUv

Bomber tea leaves - Commenting on the Pentagon’s new guidance, Mark Gunzinger argues, “This is a big green light for long-range strike capabilities and for the next bomber...[It] could very well be perhaps the only major new program start in this next budget.” http://owl.li/8ksuw

Arms control in an election year - Election politics make things complicated, but there are still opportunities for arms control progress in 2012, writes Steven Pifer. Opportunities include a Pentagon reexamination of deterrence requirements, U.S.-Russia talks about future reductions, and decisions to cut nuclear forces and save defense dollars. http://owl.li/8ksxs