Ross: Opportunity for Diplomacy with Iran

On the radar: Dennis Ross on the chance for engagement; Ashton gets the letter; Guidance process gets leaky; Iran touts small advancements; ISIS sees low breakout risk in 2012; and Warheads on 18 wheels.

February 15, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Ross on the opportunity for Engaging Iran - “The Obama administration has now created a situation in which diplomacy has a chance to succeed. It remains an open question whether it will,” writes former Obama administration official Dennis Ross in The New York Times. “Iran is now signaling that it is interested in diplomacy.”

--”Iran can have civilian nuclear power, but it must not have nuclear weapons. Ultimately, Ayatollah Khamenei will have to decide what poses a greater threat to his rule: ending his quest for nuclear weapons or stubbornly pursuing them as crippling economic pressures mount.” http://owl.li/95EvO

Ashton gets a late valentine - EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton has received a letter from Iran’s nuclear negotiator responding to a invitation from the P5+1 for nuclear talks. Laura Rozen has the report. http://owl.li/95Exv

Welcome to Early Warning - Apologies for the delayed delivery. Technical issues kept the radar offline. Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

Hay is getting made of this - The nuclear guidance options the Pentagon plans to present include significant cuts to the number of deployed strategic warheads, AP’s Robert Burns reports. http://owl.li/95EzU

--NSC spokesman Tommy Vietor told USA Today that the AP story is “vastly overwritten.” Viettor noted that the policy guidance is in line with the NPR goal of reducing the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security strategy, and added that the Pentagon is still in the process of developing its options. http://owl.li/95EBZ

Tweet - Author David Hoffman (@thedeadhandbook): “P story on nukes raises impt question but way too early. Key is not range of #s but how many warheads do we really need for deterrence?”

Iran fuel and centrifuge advancements - In a highly publicized nuclear announcement, Iran has said it has inserted domestically made nuclear fuel into the Tehran Research Reactor and installed more of a new generation of centrifuges at Natanz. “The moves were aimed at showing that Iran is mastering the entire cycle of producing nuclear fuel on its own,” reports AP. http://owl.li/95EF7

--The Iranians "make incremental steps to create fuel for reactors. ...They announce such incremental steps as if it is more of an accomplishment than it actually is,” said Paul Brannan to Yahoo News. http://owl.li/95EHx

ISIS on breakout - The risk of an Iranian breakout in 2012 is low, due to international pressure and Iran’s still-limited capabilities, according to a forthcoming report from ISIS. “Ultimately, a negotiated solution remains the best way to resolve the nuclear crisis with Iran, and increased pressure offers the best hope of convincing Iran to undertake successful negotiations,” concludes a write-up of the report. http://owl.li/95EJh

Call for cooperation on Iran -Getting Iran to the negotiating table will require international cooperation, particularly from China, Russia, and India, writes the New York Times editorial board. “It’s time for Russia, China and India (which desperately wants a Security Council seat) to meet the test of leadership. That means all three need to work to find ways to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions.” http://owl.li/95ELE

WashPost on next steps with Iran - “We continue to believe that military action against Iran, by Israel or the United States, is not yet necessary or wise,” the Washington Post editorial board writes. “U.S. and Israeli officials share an assessment that, though Iran is building up nuclear capability, it has not taken decisive steps toward building a bomb.”

--The editors argue for keeping the military option on the table, but clearly spelling out red line and consequences. http://owl.li/95EOU

On the road with nuclear truckers - “Big rigs with bombs are secretly cruising the interstate near you. But how safe are they from terrorists or accidents? Mother Jones’ Adam Weinstein has the story. http://owl.li/95GlF