Objectives for Dialogue with Iran

On the radar: Jalili expresses cooperation to Ashton; Priority goals for talks; Panetta and Dempsey deflate press accounts of proposed nuke cuts; $55 billion for bombers just a “planning number”; Rusty nuclear facilities; Iran’s nuclear program in #context; and Springfield goes to war with Iran.

February 16, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Jalili’s letter to Ashton - “We voice our readiness for dialogue on a spectrum of various issues which can provide ground for constructive and forward looking cooperation,” wrote Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili in a letter to EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. AP reports on the contents of the letter. http://owl.li/96SuJ

Goals for dialogue with Iran - “The most critical objectives of the dialogue will be to secure more intrusive access by the IAEA to all of Iran’s nuclear-related activities and to convince Tehran to finally address the agency’s questions about its weapons-related work,” writes Peter Crail at Arms Control Now. “A permanent uranium-enrichment halt would be beneficial and very welcome, but it is not necessary to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, and should not become a condition for further talks.” http://owl.li/96SwV

Panetta and Dempsey on the guidance - "It's the Cliff Notes version of what is a very comprehensive set of discussions internal to the military with the national security staff on what is our next negotiating strategy, notably with Russia," said JCS Chairman Gen. Dempsey to HASC committee members on reports about the ongoing nuclear policy guidance review and potential nuclear arsenal cuts.

--"The status quo by the way is always an option and one that is in play...I'd encourage you not to become too concerned with the media reports about what is a very comprehensive process." http://owl.li/96SWw

--Defense Secretary Panetta emphasized that no decisions have been made: "This has been something that has been part of a process for discussion within the national security team and remains there at this point." http://owl.li/96SYe

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Bomber price tag - The latest cost estimate for the new bomber is $550 million per copy. The Air Force wants to buy 80-100, bringing the total price to $55 billion. That presumably includes just the bomber; the extended “family of systems” will cost extra.

--Air Force budget chief Marilyn Thomas says $550M is "a planning number" and will likely change as the program matures. Carlo Munoz reports for AOL Defense. http://owl.li/96Srd

History lesson - “Nations have often believed that they face a closing window to act, and almost always such thinking has led to disaster,” writes Fareed Zakaria in The Washington Post. Conflicts in the recent past, he concludes, show that “it is profoundly shortsighted to base a major decision — to go to war — on narrow technical considerations like windows of vulnerability.” http://owl.li/96SLq

Quote - “Our best strategy is solid, cost-effective implementation of high-priority programs that address the long-term state of the nuclear enterprise,” said John Harvey, principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical and biological defense programs, about current plans for nuclear modernization programs.

--On the FY13 budget: ““[It] maintains our commitment to the programs and capabilities essential to DOD’s strategic deterrence mission.” http://owl.li/96SOv

Rust & leaks - Photos of the rusty and dated underbellies of nuclear facilities at Oak Ridge and Los Alamos are circulating from a press release from Rep. Michael Turner. Mark Thompson at TIME has the story. http://owl.li/96T7L

--EW editors’ observation: Missing from stories about these older nuclear facilities is any mention about the costs of existing plans to replace them (CMRR $3.5-$6 billion & UPF $6.5-$7.5 billion) and whether or not such price tags are reasonable.

Iran’s nuclear announcement in two tweets - Iran’s announcement of nuclear achievements yesterday coincided with a letter to the EU expressing a willingness to return to P5+1 nuclear talks. Joe Cirincione explains these developments in ≤280 characters:

--@cirincione: 1. Iran showed some tech advances but mainly its determination to keep enriching U to 20%, increasing nuclear weapon capability.

--2. Iran has history of exaggerating capabilities 4 negotiating advantage. Told EU today it's ready to talk. That's what this is all about. http://owl.li/96Tk8

”This means war!” - Iran is banning the sale of all Simpsons toys within its borders, with Iran’s Institute for the Intellectual Development of Children and Young Adults arguing such toys promote Western culture. “This means war!” said Simpsons executive producer Al Jean. LA Times has the story. http://owl.li/96T0j