Nuclear Budgets and Austerity Cuts

On the radar: CNAS’ nuclear budget proposals; Panetta warns against Israeli strike; Last B-52 pilot not born yet; Getting past “nyet” on BMD; Boomer port visits in Korea; NATO partners wade into BMD roles, budgets; and the Problems of divorcing Pakistan again.

October 5, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

CNAS - “The United States needs to rethink its defense strategy for an age of fiscal austerity.” That’s the opener for a new report from CNAS titled “ Hard Choices: Responsible Defense in an Age of Austerity.” (pdf)

--Of those choices, the report recommends avoiding cuts to delivery vehicle procurement until the U.S. reevaluates its deterrence requirements (currently underway). The report identifies savings between $12.6 and $25.2 billion by deferring expensive NNSA programs for CMRR, UPF, MOX, and other programs beyond FY2021. The report recommends a $37.5 billion whack to missile defenses, mostly from national missile defense programs. http://owl.li/6ObeM

Tweet - @LarryKorb: “Lynn: Nuclear reductions will have to be part of budget solution. But I'm not sure if that takes you to a dyad. #CAPSecurity”

Panetta on Iran - Against the backdrop of a trip to Israel, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta’s call for “working together” to address the threat of Iran’s nuclear program is a “thinly veiled message” against a unilateral military strike. The former head of Massad agreed, saying a military strike is “far from being Israel’s preferred option.” Ali Gharib follows the story. http://owl.li/6O6Ok

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B-52s to fly through 2040 - The bomber is getting a series of updates to keep it in service into the 2040s. “The airframe itself is very solid, very reliable,” said Global Strike chief Lt. Gen. James Kowalski.

--”To keep the B-52 relevant in its nuclear role,” the Air Force is planning to acquire a new cruise missile for the bomber. The Air Force has set requirements for such a capability, and the program for a Long Range Stand-off Missile program is already underway. Air Force Times has the report. http://owl.li/6O9wK

Russian politics and a U.S. BMD proposal - In a Moscow Times op-ed on “The Kremlin’s Missile Defense Follies,” Alexander Golts argues that Russia’s posturing against missile defense cooperation is mostly a vehicle for protesting U.S. foreign and defense policy writ large.

--Golts also outlines a “very reasonable” offer being tabled by the U.S.: “two joint missile defense centers with Russia. The first center would be for exchanging all information that the two countries’ early warning radar stations gather concerning missile attacks and the deployment of satellites. The second would be for the joint planning of operations, in which, according to [ASD Alexander] Vershbow, Russian and U.S. officers would work shoulder to shoulder 24/7, developing military response plans under different attack scenarios.” http://owl.li/6OdNI

Boomer visits and deterrence on the Peninsula - From 1979 to 1981, U.S. nuclear-armed ballistic missile subs made port visits to South Korea almost every month. There has been a recent buzz of arguments calling for more measures to strengthen deterrence with South Korea. What can be learned from the port visits of the late 70s?

--The port visits had great potential to signal the power of the U.S. extended deterrent. “The question is whether it is necessary,” argues Hans Kristensen. “To the extent anything can, [today’s more capable sub fleet] should be sufficient to deter large-scale North Korean attacks against the South.” http://owl.li/6O9yW

BMD momentum in Europe - “Europe will never match the U.S.’s passion for missile defense; but step-by-step, Washington’s NATO partners are moving to build up capacities that could augment and expand the shield the Pentagon is creating,” reports Aviation Week. “Progress will be slow and incremental...Nevertheless, there is clear momentum in Europe to do more, even if the main motivator is industrial base considerations.” http://owl.li/6Oc2P

Event - ”Taking Stock of Iran's Nuclear Program: What Does it Mean, and What are the Implications?” with David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security. This Friday, 9:30 - 11:00, at George Washington University. Event details and RSVP here: http://owl.li/6LQaL

Latest on the Iran fuel proposal - If Western nations decline to sell nuclear fuel to Iran, not only will Iran continue producing 20% enriched uranium", "[We will] also build a factory for manufacturing even the fuel rods by ourselves," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said. From Global Security Newswire. http://owl.li/6Of0U

U.S.-Pakistan Tragedy, Farce & Divorce - The last “divorce” between the U.S. and Pakistan (after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan) caused problems for both countries. Now, “another divorce looms, which will cause even greater damage to Pakistan and far worse security dilemmas for the United States,” writes Michael Krepon.

--“Somehow, against lengthening odds, we are obliged to figure out ways in which the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan can be turned into a new start instead of an impending divorce.” http://owl.li/6O8K4