Prospects for a Missile Defense Agreement

On the radar: Progress, but a long way to go with Russia; Comprehensive strategy, not exaggeration needed on Iran; Retirement for the Red October; Avoiding calamity with Iran; Nonpro funding critical; A regional approach on Iran; Kimball on the record; and Lewis sled tests his B83x argument.

October 4, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Progress and Caution on BMD cooperation - U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Beyrle is cautiously optimistic about the prospects of achieving a NATO-Russia missile deal by the NATO summit in May 2012. “The process is not fast, but I am very pleased we have been able to raise the level of trust significantly,” Beyrle said.

--Russian officials are still cautious. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov emphasized the importance of guarantees that a Western missile defense system would not threaten the Russian nuclear arsenal. "This is what the struggle is about now. It's impossible to say that we've made strong progress on this,” Ryabkov said. http://owl.li/6N2mv

Clarity on Iran - Both exaggeration and complacency in assessing Iran’s nuclear program are “irresponsible,” writes Mark Fitzpatrick. “Iran is already nuclear-capable, but a nuclear-armed Iran is not inevitable.”

--Keeping Iran from crossing from nuclear-capable to nuclear-armed will require a combination of policy tools, including containment, deterrence, inspections, and engagement. The policy brief from the Arms Control Association is here (pdf). http://owl.li/6N2jY

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Event - ”Taking Stock of Iran's Nuclear Program: What Does it Mean, and What are the Implications?” with David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security. This Friday, 9:30 - 11:00, at George Washington University. Event details and RSVP here: http://owl.li/6LQaL

Russia’s disappearing subs - Russia is considering decommissioning three Typhoon nuclear submarines. Construction delays for the next generation of submarines could mean that “within a decade, Russia could possess just half a dozen operational missile submarines,” writes David Axe in The Diplomat. “That has strategic implications for Moscow and Washington.” http://owl.li/6N2ip

Dangers of mutual misunderstanding - “The current policy of sanctions, sabotage, and assassinations is on course to hand Iran a pretext for building nuclear bombs, whether or not that was Tehran's plan all along,” argues Patrick Disney in The Atlantic.

--Countering the risks of mutual misunderstanding requires “understanding the risks of a backlash...and making careful calculations about whether we stand to gain more from the policies we choose than the risk of it blowing up in our face.” http://owl.li/6N2gO

Tweet - @IISS_org: As South drops some aid to #NorthKorea, Mark Fitzpatrick discusses why "Pyongyang should pay for food it seeks"...http://fb.me/1jquJTpgp

Defending nonpro spending - “Having a strong military is only part of guaranteeing our national security,” writes Aaron Scheinberg. Noting the “very real” threat of nuclear terrorism, Scheinberg calls for fully funding nonproliferation programs. In The Daily Record. http://owl.li/6N2bj

Iran and the Arab Uprisings - ”Iran's backing of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, its tumultuous domestic politics, and the government's crackdown on demonstrations led by opposition leaders in 2009 and again this spring has limited Tehran's ability to benefit from the Arab uprisings.” Jayshree Bajoria of the Council on Foreign argues for a comprehensive, regional approach. http://owl.li/6N297

Obama’s mixed record on nukes - “A great deal has been achieved under this administration, but there is clearly much more that has to be done,” said Daryl Kimball in an interview with Salon’s Justin Elliot. Among the most important goals still unaccomplished are the entry into force of the CTBT and ending production of nuclear materials. http://owl.li/6N26R

Lewis on a B83 Mod X - Jeffrey Lewis received a lot of responses to his recent op-ed calling for enhancing the earth-penetrating capabilities of the B83 nuclear bomb. Acknowledging and addressing arguments against that proposal, Lewis comments on how his proposal compares with other LEP programs and argues the possible utility of a modified B83. http://owl.li/6N24E