Defusing the India-Pakistan Standoff

On the radar: Military leaders’ proposal to avoid nuclear war; A Trial marriage on missile defense; Next round of Iran talks; Perspective on the North Korea satellite launch; Steps to prevent nuclear terrorism; Feinstein on nuke funding; Broad engagement with Iran; and Gates urges caution on Iran.

March 22, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Steps for India and Pakistan - “For once, generals on both sides [of the India-Pakistan standoff] are talking about how to avoid war, rather than how to prepare for it,” The Washington Post’s David Ignatius reports on a proposal from two top-level officials on steps to reduce the risks of nuclear war.

--In a joint op-ed, the retired generals recommend a “framework for crisis management” that includes talking when a crisis erupts, rather than cutting off communication; avoiding military actions that could be misinterpreted as an offensive; working together on counterterrorism, and sharing information on immigration and border controls. http://owl.li/9OyCO

A win-win proposal - To get out of the U.S.-Russia missile defense stalemate, Steven Pifer proposes a “trial marriage” in which the two sides agree to provisional cooperation for a limited time.

--”If U.S. officials are correct, this kind of transparency and day-to-day interaction would alleviate Russian concerns about a threat from U.S. missile defenses...Moscow would lose nothing by agreeing to this because it could always walk away at any moment. But if things worked out, NATO and Russian missile defenders might decide to make it a lasting partnership.” http://owl.li/9OyAS

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Save the date - The next round of P5+1 and Iran talks will take place April 13th in Geneva, U.S. officials and EU officials have told Israel. Haaretz reports. http://owl.li/9OyyZ

Difficult road ahead for U.S.-DPRK - Brookings’ Evan Revere provides some much-needed perspective on North Korea’s planned satellite launch: “First, last week was not the first time that the DPRK spoke of its plans to launch a satellite...the decision to announce a launch had [likely] already been taken by the now-deceased Kim.” “The DPRK [seems to have] made this decision for internal political reasons.” And “Pyongyang may also have believed that the United States would not walk away from the Leap Day deal, since it had the potential to lead to a negotiation...”

--Looking ahead, Revere writes, “A North Korean launch will almost certainly kill the food assistance deal, and the North Koreans could use that as an excuse to say they are no longer obligated to fulfill their commitment...But the North Koreans could also offer to re-admit IAEA monitors while proceeding with the launch...” http://owl.li/9OwTs

Seizing momentum on nuclear security - “Real momentum has been achieved to secure weapons-grade nuclear materials, but decisive and bold action is needed,” writes Alexandra Toma in The Hill. “The 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit next week will not fix nuclear security, but it’s a step in the right direction in building global support to combat this global threat.”

-- For ”an effective one-two punch to combat nuclear terrorism,” Toma writes, the U.S. should commit to nonproliferation by fully funding programs like the Global Threat Reduction Initiative, and the IAEA should be given watchdog authority on global nuclear security. http://owl.li/9OyvS

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: “At approps hearing on NNSA, Sen. Feinstein says FY13 request for weapons activities "more than sufficient" to sustain stockpile”

Moving beyond the nuclear issue - “Resolving the nuclear issue requires a broader conceptual framework about Iran's role and US interests in the region,” write Barry Blechman and Ellen Laipson in Al-Monitor.

--Engaging Iran on other areas, particularly Afghanistan, will help address the fundamental problems - deep mistrust and decades of miscommunication, the authors conclude. http://owl.li/9Oyu5

Event - Ahmed Rashid discusses his new book, Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, with George Perkovich next Thursday, March 22, at 12:30. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/9OyrZ

Quote - "If you think the war in Iraq was hard, an attack on Iran would, in my opinion, be a catastrophe," former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said at an event last week. http://owl.li/9Oyqj