No Room for Complacency on Nuclear Security

On the radar: Experts highlight nuclear materials security; the Real question on Iran; Sen. Feinstein on NNSA cost overruns; Iranian nuke still not imminent; New START, missile cuts, and election politics; Heinonen on nonproliferation challenges; National Academy’s CTBT report; and Nuclear Drone Plan Nixed.

March 23, 2012 | Edited by Mary Kaszynski

- Ahead of the Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul this coming Monday, IAEA officials like director Khammar Mrabit caution that more work lies ahead to secure nuclear materials worldwide. "Nuclear security is [a] work in progress," Mrabit told reporters. "Continuous improvement is a must."

--The IAEA’s Illicit Trafficking database recorded around 200 incidents per year, Mrabit added. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://owl.li/9Q6Pa

--Analysts also caution against slowing down nonproliferation efforts. In the U.S., budget cuts to nonpro programs are "an assault on common sense and a threat to American and international security," Ken Luongo told USA Today. http://owl.li/9Q6JB

The False Iran Debate - The fundamental question in the Iran debate is not about “red lines” or “zones of immunity,” writes Roger Cohen in The New York Times”The fundamental question...is how to satisfy Iran’s pride and usher it from historical grievance while capping its enrichment at a low, vigorously inspected level.”

--”This is Ground Zero of the negotiations about to begin. It’s what you get after 30 years of dangerous noncommunication,” Cohen writes. “Is there a way out of the impasse? Perhaps not...But perhaps yes, if real concessions are made by both sides and the nuclear issue is not taken in isolation.” http://owl.li/9Q6Ih

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Sanctions and Iran’s internal politics - “The result of the external pressure - sanctions, rhetoric against Iran, and threats of military strikes - has been to shift power to the hardliners. You can see Ahmadinejad’s power has weakened,” writes Fareed Zakaria. “Iran is in the process of morphing from a theocracy to a military dictatorship. It’s not clear what impact this will have on foreign policy...” http://owl.li/9Q6GR

Feinstein on nuclear budgets - Sen. Dianne Feinstein highlighted cost overruns and poor project management at NNSA in a recent budget hearing. “NNSA has just terminated or delayed 2 major construction projects after spending $1.5 billion only to conclude that it could use existing facilities to meet mission requirements,” she said.

--Excerpts from Sen. Feinstein’s opening statement via Council for a Livable World. http://owl.li/9Q6wx

Intel agreement on Iran - Reuters reviews intelligence assessments on Iran: “The United States, European allies and even Israel generally agree on three things about Iran's nuclear program: Tehran does not have a bomb, has not decided to build one, and is probably years away from having a deliverable nuclear warhead.” http://owl.li/9Q6zT

New START confusion - A mailer sent by Rep. Danny Rehberg (R-WA) to constituents claims that the New START treaty “seeks to eliminate 150 missiles at Malmstrom [Air Force Base in Washington]."

--The claim seems based more in election politics than fact. Air Force leaders have indicated that to get down to the treaty-mandated level they will likely cut 10 ICBMS from each of the three bases. http://owl.li/9Q6yd

"The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime Challenged" - The nonproliferation regime must adjust to address a number of changes, from the “renaissance” of nuclear energy to the proliferation of sensitive technologies to the challenges posed by Iran and North Korea, Olli Heinonen said in a presentation.

--”We will need to map out new verification technologies and approaches to keep abreast of this changing environment,” Heinonen concludes. “How can we do this? Technology foresight can help us provide a vision to deal with future challenges posed to the safeguards community.”http://owl.li/9Q6uo

Event - The rollout of the National Academy of Sciences report The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Technical Issues for the United States is one week from today - March 30th, at 1:30. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/9EtrX

Tough break for Sandia - “It was disappointing to all,” Sandia National Lab said in a report obtained by FAS, that their plan for a nuclear powered drone presented “no near-term benefit to industry or the taxpayer.”

--Not everyone shares Sandia’s disappointment. ”They’re (relatively) cheap! They’re (relatively) disposable! But with nuclear fuel inside, they’d be categorically dangerous,” writes Gizmodo’s Sam Biddle. “A Predator crash with nuclear consequences would be a diplomatic crisis. Suddenly, you don’t just have debris—you have a contamination zone. That wouldn’t go over well in downtown Islamabad.” http://owl.li/9Q6rY