Restoring Compliance with the INF Treaty

On the radar: Worth saving; Kagan on Bibi’s speech; Poor timing; Senate Banking votes out Iran sanctions; Sen. Cotton wants to kill talks with sanctions; a Giant inflatable missile; Mousavian book; and Movement in Pyongyang.

January 30, 2015 | Edited by Will Saetren

INF - “The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is in trouble, write Oliver Meier, Greg Thielmann and Andrei Zagorski in a column for the European Leadership Network. “That trail-blazing accord, now 26 years old, resulted in the destruction of 2,700 U.S. and Russian ground-based, nuclear-tipped missiles of 500-5500 km ranges in less than three years and helped shift the dangerous Cold War arms race into reverse.”

--“The treaty is now under threat over allegations of noncompliance. Although both the U.S. and Russian governments continue to pledge fidelity to the treaty, they have not convened the group established for resolving compliance issues, the Special Verification Commission (SVC). It’s high time they do.” Full column here. http://bit.ly/1BzowaO

About the speech - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to address Congress in early March. Not only would such a move damage U.S.-Israeli relations, it would also hurt U.S. efforts to secure a good nuclear deal, writes Robert Kagan in The Washington Post.

--Having Netanyahu address Congress at this time “is not good for the American debate over Iran. At the end of the day, that debate has to rest on a consideration of U.S. interests, not those of Israel….Given that the United States is carrying out a vigorous and healthy debate over what to do about Iran, the intrusion of the Israeli prime minister only muddies the waters.” Full article here. http://wapo.st/1ESXcrI

Rep. Blumenauer - “A joint session, organized in this manner, at this time, undermines the only way of stopping a nuclear-armed Iran: a negotiated solution… Leadership serious about bolstering Israel's security should be focused on using the historic, multilateral sanctions in place today that have brought Iran to the table. Sidestepping the White House in this way could easily fracture the united front America has built with Russia, China, Germany, and others,” writes Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) in Huffington Post. http://huff.to/1wIBsZm

Banking Committee - The Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee voted 18-4 yesterday in favor of the Kirk-Menendez Iran sanctions bill. The four no’s: Senators Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Jack Reed (D-RI), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). Deb Riechmann for APhttp://yhoo.it/1JPyEm9

--Key quote from Sen. Brown’s opening statement: “Congress should have the collective patience to wait until the end of June to see whether our negotiators can resolve the nuclear issue with Iran through diplomacy.” http://1.usa.gov/1zGkRgn

Blunt and reckless - “Unlike some of his Senate colleagues, [Sen. Tom] Cotton has been blunt in stating his view that Congress should be seeking to end the negotiations with Iran. This is irresponsible and dangerous for all parties. To end negotiations with Iran at this stage would not only throw away the best chance to limit Iran’s nuclear program through peaceful means, but it would put the U.S., Iran, and the entire region on a path towards unnecessary conflict,” writes Daniel Larison in The American Conservative.

--“Cotton is a hawkish ideologue, and it seems clear enough that he welcomes the prospect of a new conflict, but that is all the more reason why it is imperative that his reckless counsel be ignored.” Full column here. http://bit.ly/1BzlaVo

Tweet - @Cirincione: "Iran is the gravest threat facing America today," screams @TomCottonAR in WSJ today. Only 2% of investors agree.

Nuke on the Mall - “The presence of a nuclear missile on the National Mall sounds like a scene out of Independence Day. But this Saturday, such a missile—albeit a facsimile of one—will appear outside the White House,” writes Emma Roller in Defense One. Global Zero “will stage a protest outside the White House with a ‘life-size, four-story inflated nuclear missile’ to illustrate the humanitarian threat posed by nuclear weapons.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1EudF8p

--Sign up for Global Zero’s “Rally to Say No to a $1 Trillion Nuclear Arsenal” here. http://bit.ly/1BySK2Q

Shrouded in mystery - There are a lot of unknowns when it comes to the new nuclear bomber, and that’s a bad sign, writes Franz-Stefan Gady for The Diplomat “The relative secrecy surrounding the program can yield to poor oversight and exploding costs.... The Air Force also has a track record of fiscal irresponsibility when it comes to bomber projects.” http://bit.ly/1Howc8j

Lost in translation - Former Iranian negotiator Hossein Mousavian thinks a big reason Iran has not struck a deal over its nuclear programme “boils down to a lack of understanding between Tehran and Washington, and a lack of U.S. appreciation for gestures Iran has made,” writes Parisa Hafezi for Reuters.

--In his newly released book, "Iran and the United States: An Insider's View on the Failed Past and the Road to Peace", Mousavian aims to illustrate “how flawed analysis on both sides has created a cycle of mistrust that has not been addressed -- let alone broken -- to this date.” Full story here. http://reut.rs/1EuerlD

Kim making moves - “Since Kim Jong Un opened North Korea’s door a crack four weeks ago, diplomats from the U.S. to Japan have been shuttling around Asia to seek momentum for a revival of formal talks, writes Sam Kim for Bloomberg Business.

--“The series of meetings comes as Kim is squeezed by both his main ally China and the U.S. in a renewed bid to prod him to the table. In a sign the effort may start to bear fruit, Kim on Jan. 1 suggested he’d be open to meeting South Korea’s president and is on Russia’s guest list to make his first overseas trip as leader in May.” http://bloom.bg/1CHktNN

Quick Hits:

--“Regulators Issue Final Volumes in Nevada Nuclear Dump Report,” in the Associated Press. http://abcn.ws/1CHoba3

--“Potential Kim Jong Un Visit to Russia Highlights Possible Rift with China,” by Brian Padden in Voice of America. http://bit.ly/1zGqIm2

--“UK summons Russian envoy after bombers fly over English Channel,” by Lucy Pawle, Vasco Cotovio and Jason Hanna for CNN.http://cnn.it/162PRJI

--“Nuclear regulators say Yucca disposal site would be safe,” by Timothy Cama in The Hill. http://bit.ly/1uJ20tK

--“Don’t short-circuit Iranian nuclear talks.” Editorial in The Day. http://bit.ly/1BDTC3B

Events:

--“Australia and the Bomb," featuring Christine Leah, Yale University; Christian Ostermann, Wilson Center; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. January 28, 2:00-3:30 p.m., Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP http://bit.ly/1tGp8bD.

--“Debunk the Myths of Iran Sanctions,” featuring Kate Gould, Legislative Associate for Middle East Policy, Friends Committee on National Legislation. Hosted by Physicians for Social Responsibility. Wed, Jan 28, 2015 8:30 PM - 9:30 PM EST. Register http://bit.ly/1sWA1uX.

--“An Assessment of Russian Concerns About Missile Defenses In Europe,” Featuring Timur Kadyshev, Center of Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies, Moscow. January 29 at Noon EST. Online webinar sponsored by the Union of Concerned Scientists. http://bit.ly/1BovLm3

--"Avoiding Disaster in a New Era of Superpower Tension." Featuring Nikolas Gvosdev, U.S. Naval War College; Fiona Hill, Brookings Institution; Ali Wyne, RAND; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. January 29 from 6:30-8:00 p.m. Located at the FHI Conference Center, Eighth Floor, 1825 Connecticut Ave. NW, Washington DC. Sponsored by PS21: Project for the Study of the 21st Century. RSVP. http://ow.ly/HHuLJ

--“Rally to Say No to a $1 Trillion Nuclear Arsenal.” Hosted by Global Zero, from 1:00-3:00 p.m. on January 31. Located at the Ellipse (south of the White House), Washington, DC. RSVP http://bit.ly/1BySK2Q.

--“The Nuclear Enterprise: Past and Future." Featuring Michael Elliott, Deputy Director for Strategic Stability Plans and Policy Directorate, Joint Chiefs of Staff. February 3 from 9:30-10:30 a.m. Located at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Second Floor Hess Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington DC. RSVP http://bit.ly/1xXGYaE.

--“A Visit to Tehran: former Congressman shares his outlook for U.S.-Iran Relations.” Featuring former Congressman Jim Slattery. February 9 from 2:00 - 3:00 p.m. Located at the Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor, Washington DC. Register here. http://bit.ly/15JYZ64