President’s Budget Expected to Fuel Nuclear Spending Spree

On the radar: Nuclear budget still booming; Changed politics in the U.S.; Rouhani takes on hardliners; Bomber’s hidden costs; Shoot the bombs; and Send in the goats.

February 2, 2015 | Edited by Will Saetren and Jacob Marx

Nuclear budget - “President Barack Obama will propose spending cuts for many federal programs in the 2016 budget request he’ll send to Congress on Monday, but not for nuclear weapons. Quite the contrary, Obama’s administration is proposing to go on a nuclear weapons spending spree. This is an expensive and profound mistake, and one that ignores the limited contribution that nuclear weapons make to U.S. security,” writes Stephen Young in Defense One.

--”These [nuclear weapons spending] plans will cost $348 billion over the next 10 years, according to a Congressional Budget Office estimate released last week. The National Defense Panel, appointed by Congress, found that the price tag over 30 years could be as much as a $1 trillion.”

--“The United States can maintain an effective and reliable arsenal at a reasonable cost, for as long as needed. But spending money on new types of warheads undermines efforts to stop additional countries from pursuing these weapons. Rather than an asset that increases national security, nuclear weapons are now our greatest security liability.” Full column here. http://bit.ly/1DomBbb

--See also: “Where’s America’s commitment to seek a world without nuclear weapons?,” by David Krieger in The Hill. http://bit.ly/1tVNiEx

Sanction politics - “Some extraordinary changes to the political landscape in the United States have occurred that should prompt Iran to reevaluate Obama’s abilities,” writes Trita Parsi for Reuters. “Passing sanctions on Iran used to be the safest political move in Congress. But today, imposing sanctions means supporting war, which is a move that carries a tremendous political cost.”

--President Obama has “succeeded in changing the underlying politics of the matter. The debate over Iran sanctions is no longer about Iran, but about war with Iran. Diplomacy with Iran is the best way of avoiding both a nuclear Iran, and bombing Iran. Any measure that undermines diplomacy, such as new sanctions, automatically enhances the risk of war.” Full column. http://reut.rs/1BUFGm6

Tweet - @NIACouncil: Obama Quiets Menendez on #Iran | Cartoon by Drew Sheneman via @NJ_Politics | #IranTalks #NoNewSanctions http://bit.ly/166ZuY5

Beyond waters edge - “There is no more sensitive task — or a more hazardous one — than trying to keep nuclear weapons out of Iran's hands. Throughout the talks, the six nations negotiating with Iran have shown remarkable unity. It would be a shame if all that effort was lost because of political gamesmanship here or in Israel. Politics, as they used to say, should end at the water's edge,” write the editors of USA Today on Netanyahu’s upcoming speech to Congress. http://usat.ly/1HKN8pY

Rouhani pushes back - Iranian President Hassan Rouhani accused opponents on Saturday of "cheering on" the other side in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, reports Reuters. “This is not criticism, it is sabotage of national interests and favor for partisan politics,” said Rouhani. Full story here. http://reut.rs/1z6UJof

--See also: “In Iran, foreign policy heavyweight Sadegh Kharazi has come out in strong support of the country’s nuclear negotiating team,” writes Mohammad Ali Shabani for Al-Monitor. Full story here. http://bit.ly/1CpJPky

Budget busting - President Obama is sending his 2016 budget to the Hill this week, with an expected $1.5 billion earmarked for the Air Force’s new Long Range Strike Bomber. However, as Mark Thompson reports for Time, the actual price tag for the project may be much higher. Planes produced early in the program will likely be far pricier than the projected $550 million per unit. That price, which fails to incorporates the research and development needed to build the plane was also “based on the value of a 2010 dollar.” Full story. http://ti.me/16aorBH

Protest - “About 100 demonstrators, holding signs that said, ‘No $1 Trillion Nuclear Arsenal,’ rallied outside the White House Saturday, calling on President Obama to halt plans to invest billions of dollars to expand and rebuild the country’s nuclear arsenal,” writes DeNeen Brown for The Washington Post.

--The organizers of the rally said that “Obama had once called nuclear weapons ‘the most dangerous legacy of the Cold War,”’ and accused him of backsliding on his promise to move towards “a world without nuclear weapons.” Full story here. http://wapo.st/1KkcO8E

Quick Hits:

--“New Zealand Robustly Defends Nuclear Ban,” by Neena Bhandari in Eurasia Review. http://bit.ly/1CpHBBR

--“India tests nuclear-capable missile from mobile launcher,” reports Deutsche Welle. http://bit.ly/1Kk5VEu

--“The 5 Most Dangerous Nuclear Threats No One Is Talking About,” by Zachary Keck in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1tVQ9NR

--“Good cop, bad cop on North Korea? Washington plays the tough guy,” by Anna Fifield in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/16lyLb5

--“Fiji compensates its veterans of British nuclear tests in the Pacific,” by AFP. http://bit.ly/1K3oChx

--“Russia says nuclear arms to keep military edge over NATO, United States,” by Reuters. http://reut.rs/1wXp8od

Events:

--“The Nuclear Enterprise: Past and Future." Featuring Michael Elliott, Deputy Director for Strategic Stability Plans and Policy Directorate, Joint Chiefs of Staff. February 3 from 9:30-10:30 a.m. Located at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Second Floor Hess Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington DC. RSVP http://bit.ly/1xXGYaE.

--"Reinvent Nuclear Security - An Alternative Future for the National Labs," featuring Adam Steltzner, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Peter Schwartz, Salesforce.com; Gregory Benford, University of California, Irvine; and Paul Carroll, Ploughshares Fund. February 3, 2:00-3:30 p.m. EST. Online webinar sponsored by N Square. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1HLGC1Y

--"And Then What? Imagining the Middle East if Nuclear Negotiations with Iran Fail," featuring Gary Samore, Belfer Center; Shai Feldman, Brandeis University; Alexei Arbatov, Carnegie Moscow Center; and Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Princeton University. February 4, Noon-2:00 p.m. Harvard University, Belfer Center Library, Littauer 369, Cambridge, MA. http://bit.ly/1uR68aZ

--"A Visit to Tehran: Outlook for U.S.-Iran Relations," featuring former Rep. Jim Slattery (KS). February 9, 2:00 p.m., Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1Df9zNk

Dessert:

When to shoot a nuke - The year is 1960. You’re a young, lone American G.I. guarding nuclear weapons on an air base in West Germany. “What are you going to do if these guys come running out and they’re going take off and no one has told you that it’s all right?...What you ought to do is just shoot the bombs.”

--That’s advice from scientist Harold Agnew, who shares other tips and recollections on “how to ensure that nuclear weapons will always work when needed, but would never work in an accident or when stolen” in the 2010 film Always/Never: The Quest for Safety, Control and Survivability. Full story by Paul Huard for War is Boring. http://bit.ly/1DoyVIB

Iron stomach - “A goat herder who has a college degree in weed sciences told federal wildlife officials that she could eliminate the need for a possible 700-acre controlled burn at the Rocky Flats National Wildlife Refuge by turning her goats loose there and eliminate concerns over spreading radioactive plutonium.” The Associated Press has the full story. http://wapo.st/1z6hYn4