Leaving Space for Diplomacy with Iran to Succeed

May 1, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Back seat drivers - “As the United States and Iran begin a new round of expert-level talks in New York next week, Congress must resist the urge to back-seat drive the diplomatic process,” write Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) and Kate Gould in Roll Call. “While our diplomats are working to drive us toward a deal guarding against a war and a nuclear-armed Iran, some members of Congress have tried to take the wheel and steer us in a different direction. Like most back-seat drivers, they believe they are being helpful. However, aggressive back-seat driving doesn’t do drivers, or diplomats, any favors.”

--The “general contours of a crisis-ending nuclear agreement are well-known by U.S. and Iranian officials alike. However, the nitty-gritty details will have to be hashed out through more rounds of intensive negotiations, rather than be issued by congressional decree. This is not to say that Congress shouldn’t be deeply involved with the negotiating process. In fact, there can be no final nuclear agreement without Congress’ support. For Iran to submit to iron-clad safeguards on its nuclear program, sanctions will have to be lifted. While the president can waive many of these sanctions, congressional action would be required to lift the most significant sanctions… Congress must also adhere to its commitments under the [interim agreement] by holding off on passing any new sanctions. That is why it is such a crucial victory for diplomacy that the deal-breaking sanctions bill in the Senate remains stalled.”

--“As we continue down the road of months of marathon negotiations for a final nuclear deal, our diplomats must do the driving. Congress has its role to play, but everyone needs to agree on supporting their guidance toward the final destination: peacefully preventing a nuclear-armed Iran and war.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1kmuovA

Tweet - @TheIranPulse: Iran-Russia energy deals no threat to nuclear talks. By @MeirJa almon.co/22n9

Report - “Nuclear Weapons: Actions Needed by NNSA to Clarify Dismantlement Performance Goal” by the Government Accountability Office. April 2014 (pdf). http://1.usa.gov/1pStHT2

Building toward shutdown - “The Energy Department on Tuesday said construction of a mixed-oxide plant will continue for now, though the intention is to eventually ax the project,” Global Security Newswire reports. “‘We will continue with construction activities through [fiscal] 2014, retaining the key nuclear engineers and other highly skilled workers that will be needed regardless of the path forward,’ National Nuclear Security Administration spokesman Josh McConaha said in a statement.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1fwt79p

Everything but the kitchen sink - “Senate Republicans on Wednesday slammed President Barack Obama's response to Russian aggression as timid and insufficient, and offered an alternative that would impose sanctions on banking and energy sectors and provide weapons to Ukraine,” Donna Cassata reports for the AP. “In an election-year broadside against administration policy, eight Republicans led by GOP Leader Mitch McConnell unveiled a package of penalties on Russians, assistance for NATO and exportation of U.S. natural gas.”

--“The U.S. and the European Union imposed new sanctions against government officials in Moscow and some businesses this week, the latest round of penalties in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea and the increasing unrest in eastern Ukraine… The Senate GOP legislation would accelerate work on a missile defense system in Europe and provide missile defense support to NATO allies, impose penalties on four Russian banks, energy monopolies such as Gazprom and the Russian arms dealer, Rosoboronexport. It would provide $100 million of direct military aid to Ukraine, including anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons and small arms.” Full report here. http://abcn.ws/1kxcAAJ

Tweet - @ArmsControlWonk: US post-New START force structure at 700 DVs: 400 ICBMs, 240 SLBMs (20 tubes per SSBN), and 60 heavy bomber http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/225580.pdf

Preserving silos - “An early version of the National Defense Authorization Act for the next fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1, includes language to retain all existing intercontinental ballistic missiles silos that currently house a missile,” writes Jenn Rowell in the Great Falls Tribune. “The bill went through markup from the House Armed Services Committee’s subcommittee on strategic forces Wednesday, and the language is similar to what was approved in the current authorization and spending bills and requires the Department of Defense to ‘preserve each intercontinental ballistic missile silo that contains a deployed missile as of the date of the enactment of this act in, at minimum, a warm status that enables such silo to remain a fully functioning element of the interconnected and redundant command and control system of the missile field; and be made fully operational with a deployed missile.’” Read the full story here. http://gftrib.com/R3Ojbv

Risk of nuclear accidents rising - “A report recounting a litany of near-misses in which nuclear weapons came close to being launched by mistake concludes that the risk of potentially catastrophic accidents is higher than previously thought and appears to be rising,” reports Julian Borger for The Guardian. The report claims that “individual decision-making, often in disobedience of protocol and political guidance, has on several occasions saved the day” in preventing the launch of nuclear warheads.

--“The report lists 13 instances since 1962 when nuclear weapons were nearly used. In several cases the large-scale launch of nuclear weapons was nearly triggered by technical malfunctions or breakdowns in communication causing false alarms, in both the US and Russia. Disaster was averted only by cool-headed individuals gambling that the alert was caused by a glitch and not an actual attack.”

--The new report “focuses on cases in which nuclear weapons came close to being launched deliberately on the basis of bad or incomplete information. However, there is an additional risk of accidents inherent in the maintenance of stockpiles of more than 17,000 warheads held by Russia, the US and the other seven nuclear-armed states.” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1kdAKgN

--And read the full report, “Too Close for Comfort: Cases of Near Nuclear Use and Options for Policy” by Patricia Lewis, Heather Williams, Benoit Pelopidas and Sasan Aghlani here. http://bit.ly/1rNgR68

Quick-hits:

--“Five Powers Agree to Respect Central Asian Nuclear-Free Zone” by Rachel Oswald in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1fT0Ap8

--“North Korea: New Kind of Nuke Test Still an Option” by Eric Talmadge for the AP. http://abcn.ws/1fwog84

--“Six Powers Meet in Brussels to Fine-Tune Iran Strategy Talks” by Justyna Pawlak in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1fBvg3i

Events:

--“Governing Uranium: Security in the Front-End of the Fuel Cycle." Discussion with Cindy Vestergaard. May 7 from 1:30 to 3:00 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW, Washington. RSVP by email to PPP@CSIS.org

--“The Countdown Begins: All You Need to Know About an Iran Nuclear Deal.” Discussion with Robert Einhorn, Alireza Nader, and Joseph Cirincione. Moderated by Colin Kahl. May 13 from 9:30 to 11:00 at the U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1o6UYwo