Nuclear Subs Not Given Budget Bailout, Yet

April 30, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Footing the bill - “A key U.S. House panel leader says Congress won't create a special funding stream for nuclear-armed submarines this year, but he thinks the idea of bankrolling the vessels outside of the Navy's strained shipbuilding budget is almost certain in the long term,” Elaine M. Grossman reports for Global Security Newswire. “Representative Randy Forbes (R-Va.) told reporters on Tuesday morning that replacing today's Ohio-class ballistic-missile vessels ‘is a national strategic concern’ that cannot be allowed to fall victim to an already underfunded naval ship-procurement plan in coming decades. That plan, by his estimates, is $4 billion to $6 billion short annually.”

--“Some Navy leaders and members of Congress have advocated that as a ‘national strategic asset,’ the purchase of 12 new ‘SSBN(X)’ submarines armed initially with Trident D-5 nuclear-tipped missiles should have its own dedicated funding source outside of the service's normal budget. However, Forbes sees a growing need for U.S. seapower in the Asia-Pacific region and around the globe. He said he can't imagine how the Navy could realistically fund the nuclear-equipped vessels -- a program estimated at more than $90 billion -- and still have funds to buy enough of other classes of required warships.”

--“The Navy estimates it will need an average of $16.8 billion annually -- measured in fiscal 2013 dollars -- to underwrite its 30-year shipbuilding plan, which is more than $2 billion a year over historic averages, according to a recent Congressional Research Service report. The Congressional Budget Office says the Navy plan would actually require $19.3 billion on average each year, or $2.5 billion more than the service's estimates… The Navy has requested $1.2 billion in SSBN(X) research and development funds for fiscal 2015, and plans to begin building the first such vessel in 2021. It is to be ready for fielding a decade later.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/1mYqnDP

Big spenders - “House Armed Services Committee Republicans are pushing back against the Obama administration's plans to delay selected efforts to modernize the U.S. nuclear arsenal,” writes Douglas Guarino in Global Security Newswire. “The Obama administration's fiscal 2015 defense budget looks to delay the controversial development of an interoperable warhead that could be used to replace two separate warheads fielded today by the Navy and Air Force. Committee Republicans have concerns with this postponement -- as well as other delays to modernization efforts,” according to the panel's version of annual defense-authorization legislation.

--“The bill also pushes back against the Obama administration's proposed delay to a planned cruise-missile warhead modernization. The legislation would require the Energy Secretary ‘to deliver a first production unit for a nuclear warhead for the long-range standoff weapon not later than’ 2025… Committee Republicans are also continuing their legislative efforts to limit the influence of the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board. The bill would mandate that the inspector general of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission also serve as inspector general of the safety board. It would additionally limit the number of board employees to 120.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1iCJpYw

Analysis - “The ICBM Budget Bunker Buster” from Taxpayers for Common Sense. April 2014. http://bit.ly/1u4ubF9

Stockpile declassified - “The Obama administration has declassified the size of its nuclear weapons stockpile: 4,804 warheads as of September 2013,” writes Hans Kristensen in the FAS Strategic Security Blog. “The new stockpile size is 309 warheads fewer than the 5,113 warheads that the administration in 2010 reported were in the stockpile as of September 2009… What the declassification does not include, unfortunately, is a number for how many retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement. That number includes ‘several thousand’ warheads, according to the fact sheet; we estimate approximately 2,500.”

--“It is good to see that the administration has decided to declassify the stockpile and dismantlement numbers after 2009. It provides and official record that the United States is making progress (although slowly) in reducing its inventory of nuclear warheads.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1khhy1B

Site visit - “The United Nations atomic agency will visit two uranium sites in Iran next week, Iranian media reported on Tuesday, part of the body's efforts to gain greater insight into Tehran's disputed nuclear program. A senior inspector from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will visit the Saghand uranium mine in central Iran and the Ardakan milling plant, where the ore is separated from other elements.” Fredrik Dahl has the story in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1nHF8uO

Sanctioned missile proliferator - “China said on Wednesday it ‘resolutely opposes’ U.S. sanctions that could harm non-proliferation work between the two countries after Washington laid charges against a Chinese businessman accused of allegedly procuring missile parts for Iran,” writes Ben Blanchard in Reuters. Get the full story here. http://reut.rs/PQRj9U

Tweet - @CNSWolfsthal: @Cirincione @Gottemoeller how many #3 level government officials take the time to go to the Marshall Islands? one, that is how many

Nixing MOX - “As the Cold War ended, the United States and Russia agreed to each dispose of 34 tons of plutonium that was produced for use in nuclear weapons, with most of it being turned into fuel for civilian power reactors,” writes Matthew Wald in The New York Times. “Now, 14 years after deciding to build a plant near Aiken, S.C., that would have converted the plutonium into reactor fuel, the Obama administration has proposed to stop work on the site, which has already cost the government $3.9 billion. But South Carolina, eager to keep 1,600 construction jobs at the site, where much of the plutonium was made in the first place, is suing to keep the work going.”

--“You’ve seen the cost estimate go from $4.8 billion to $7.8 billion,” says John J. MacWilliams, senior adviser to Ernest J. Moniz, the energy secretary. “We’re actually concerned it’ll go closer to $10 billion.” Read the full article here. http://nyti.ms/R2YaOl

Waste transfer - “The United States and German governments have been in talks for the past three years over a proposal to send shiploads of highly radioactive nuclear waste from a German reactor to the Savannah River Site in South Carolina,” writes Eric Connor in Greenville News. “The U.S. Department of Energy offered to evaluate accepting waste from the German prototype reactor, according to a 2011 U.S. Department of Energy letter obtained under the Freedom of Information Act.”

--“However, a representative of an environmental group that opposes further acceptance of waste at SRS — a Cold War-era facility near Aiken that once helped produce nuclear weapons and now is spending millions to clean up waste after decades of acting as the nation’s dumping ground — said the plan would be unprecedented. ‘The proposal to import highly radioactive spent fuel from Germany to SRS is simply nuclear dumping dressed up as nuclear non-proliferation,’ said Tom Clements, director of the SRS Watch environmental group. ‘Germany’s challenging dilemma with what to do with its nuclear waste must not become a waste management problem for the Savannah River Site.’” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1ktgsml

Exercises and warnings - “North Korea on Tuesday staged a live-artillery exercise in waters near the South, and the regime issued a fresh nuclear warning,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The United States and South Korea are keeping a close eye via satellites on the North's Punggye-ri nuclear test site, where personnel appear to be in the thick of preparations for an expected fourth underground atomic trial. U.S. President Obama and South Korean President Park Geun-hye on Friday warned that Pyongyang could expect more sanctions and an end to any hope of reviving a moribund aid-for-denuclearization process if it proceeds with the test.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/R2Tkka

Quick-hits:

--“Iran Wants 400 New Planes by 2025 if Sanctions End” by Ali Akbar Dareini for AP. http://abcn.ws/1hdWNmz

--“Amid a Revived East-West Chill, Cold War Relics Draw New Interest” by Neil MacFarquhar in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1hdO5Vt

--“First Deployment of SM-3 Block IB Interceptors” in Mostly Missile Defense http://bit.ly/1kokj2m

--“A Gordian Knot: Missiles in the Gulf” by Aaron Stein in Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1lyY1h4

Event:

--House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, markup of its portion of the defense authorization bill, H.R. 4435, which includes the nuclear weapons programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration. April 30 at 12:00 in 2118 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington. Webcast here. http://1.usa.gov/1m1RcaH

Dessert:

Solid security - The 8-inch floppy disk is the “stuff of computer nostalgia, finding themselves made into a desk clock, attached to a tote bag or throw pillow, or emblazoned on a T-shirt. And they can also be used to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles,” writes Kevin McCaney in Defense Systems. “In a ‘60 minutes’ report Sunday, correspondent Leslie Stahl visited an Air Force launch control center in Wyoming and discovered that Cold War-era facilities still have Cold War-era technology, including analog phones and, yes, 8-inch floppy disks that are used in issuing launch commands for the Minuteman missiles.”

--“ICBM missile silos went up in the 1960s and ‘70s and have remained pretty much frozen in time. The missiles themselves have undergone regular upgrades, but the facilities haven’t changed much. One reason is money—according to one estimate, it would cost $352 billion over the next decade to modernize the facilities. But another reason is the security provided by old IT. Maj. Gen. Jack Weinstein, commander of ICBM forces, told Stahl that the old hardware and software, and the lack of an Internet connection, provides solid security for the missile bases. That makes sense, since it’s unlikely that a hacker today would have much experience with an 8-inch floppy.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1rOA5s8