Iran Missile Work Lags Behind Intel Forecasts

On the radar: Iran’s missile lag; DPRK delays launch; Proliferation trends; Causes of Nork rocket failure; FSU nuclear black market; Iran condemns US test; INF turns 25; Managing US-Israeli relations; and RIP, Birger Stromsheim.

December 10, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Iran ICBM doubts - “It is increasingly uncertain whether Iran will be able to achieve an ICBM capability by 2015,” says a new report from the Congressional Research Service. This analysis casts doubt on the long-held - and highly caveated - prediction from the US intelligence community that Iran could acquire an ICBM by 2015 with sufficient foreign assistance.

--Reasons Iran’s program is lagging: 1) Iran is not getting necessary foreign support, 2) sanctions are making it harder for Iran to acquire critical materials and components, and 3) Iran has not conducted the necessary missile tests to field an ICBM. Jim Wolf at Reuters sums up the report. http://reut.rs/Z5p0Xz

Full report - “Iran’s Ballistic Missile and Space Launch Programs” by Steven Hildreth for the Congressional Research Service. December 6, 2012. (pdf) http://bit.ly/UsiaE1

Heads up, Santa - Earlier today, North Korea said “it will extend the 13-day rocket launch window by one week until Dec. 29, citing technical problems in the first-stage control engine module of the rocket.” All three stages of the rocket had been set on the launch pad last week, though the launch will be delayed until sometime between Dec. 23-29. Yonhap News has the details. http://bit.ly/122PPvu

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Global Trends - The National Intelligence Council released its latest “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Words” report, intended not to forecast but to provide a framework for possible futures and their implications.

--On nukes: “The future of nuclear proliferation hinges on the outcome of North Korean and Iranian efforts to develop nuclear weapons. Iran’s success, especially, could trigger an arms race in the Middle East, undermining the nonproliferation regime. On the other hand, if the international community prevails in its efforts to stop both of them, multilateral cooperation would be bolstered and the Non-Proliferation Treaty strengthened. Similarly, use of nuclear weapons by state or nonstate actors could either encourage or discourage proliferation depending on how events unfolded.”

--Full report from the NIC. http://1.usa.gov/VZYbzG

Welcome to the Twitters @DrJimWalshMIT

Off target - New information about North Korea’s April rocket launch hints at two possible reasons it failed early in flight. Sources suggest the rocket veered east immediately after liftoff and that the second stage did not fire.

--David Wright posits two causes for this: 1) one of the rocket’s first stage engines did not work properly, making the rocket to veer off course, or 2) a structural failure in the rocket’s upper stages could have bent the rocket, pulling it to the east. Wright leans toward the first hypothesis in his analysis at All Things Nuclear. http://bit.ly/SLzCGa

Nuclear black market -”Despite years of effort and hundreds of millions of dollars spent in the fight against the illicit sale of nuclear contraband, the black market remains active in the countries around the former Soviet Union,” reports USA Today.

--”The extent of the black market is unknown, but a steady stream of attempted sales of radioactive materials in recent years suggests smugglers have sometimes crossed borders undetected.” Full story here. http://usat.ly/TYEg2F

Future of CTR - The agreement underpinning the Cooperative Threat Reduction program with Russia set to expire in July, and Russia has only hinted that it wanted a “more modern legal framework” for continued cooperation.

--Michelle Cann looks at the recent history of CTR and notes, “The United States has publicized the value it places on continued cooperation with Russia, and now it is Russia's turn to lay out a vision -- hopefully one that provides for the future of nuclear security cooperation.” Full post at The Bulletin. http://bit.ly/WZPe8v

Event - “A Conversation with Ellen Tauscher: Missile Defense and Strategic Stability.” December 18th at American Security Project, 12:30–1:30. Moderated by Brigadier General Stephen A. Cheney. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/SRlBb6

Event - “Iran: Is a Nuclear Deal Possible?” Shaul Bakhash, Robert Litwak and Trita Parsi will debate the issue. Hosted by The Wilson Center, December 17th, 12:00-1:15. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/SRpxbV

Awkward - Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast "condemned the recent US [subcritical] nuclear test," saying it displayed "inattention to full disarmament which is a deep-seated demand of international public opinion." AFP has the story. http://bit.ly/VyNoKs

Marking 25 years with INF - December 8th marked the 25th anniversary of the INF Treaty, which eliminated US and Russian land-based missiles with ranges between 500 km and 5,500 km, among other mutually beneficial nuclear arms control limits.

--”Marking the INF Treaty’s 25th anniversary should go beyond paying homage to a past achievement. It should also suggest operating instructions for untying some of the Gordian knots we face in the present and providing hope for building a better future,” writes Greg Thielmann at Arms Control Now of the enduring lessons from the treaty. http://bit.ly/WZZYny

US-Israel relations - “Greater turbulence in [US-Israeli] relations can be expected by the middle of next year when the issues associated with Iran’s nuclear project will likely reach another crescendo,” write Graham Allison and Shai Feldman in The National Interest.

--To prevent a split over the Iran issue, the authors suggest that the US and Israel should 1) enhance cooperation in non-military measures to slow Iran’s program, 2) agree upon rules of engagement for future dialogues about Iran, 3) use defense and intelligence backchannels to avoid misunderstandings, and 4) seek a common understanding of the key issues in negotiations with Iran. http://bit.ly/W01Iy6

Not Hollywood - In February 1943, Briger Stromsheim and 5 other Norwegians parachuted into a remote region of Norway, skied for several days in subzero temperatures and infiltrated a Nazi-held heavy water facility in order to blow up critical equipment that could be used toward atomic weapons work.

--Stromsheim died recently at age 101. He is survived by his son, daughter, four grandchildren, 3 great-grandchildren, and one amazing story. From The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/TQW8i0

Tweet - @DougSaunders: RIP the guy who, dropped by parachute with skis, stopped the Nazis from getting the atom bomb. Think you've done well? http://is.gd/BkkLMh