Study Shows Plutonium Lasts 150 Years, Costly Production Facility Unnecessary

On the radar: Pu aging well; Scaling back B-61; Difficulty easing sanctions; $28 billion in nuclear cuts; Subcritical test; Write essay, win iPad; IAEA chief at CFR; Contingencies for Syria; and Dave Brubeck’s influence on nuclear policy.

December 7th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Aging gracefully - New tests show that the plutonium in US nuclear weapons can last for at least 150 years without undercutting weapons performance - a 50-year increase above previous experiments.

--”This graceful aging of plutonium also reduces the immediate need for a modern high-capacity manufacturing facility to replace pits in the stockpile. ‘In the near term, the nation can save tens of billions of dollars that might be required to build a new production facility,’ says Allen. He notes, however, that the nation must retain a certain level of manufacturing capability to enable a speedy response should an unexpected problem arise.” Full story by Arnie Heller in Lawrence Livermore Lab’s Science & Technology Review. http://1.usa.gov/YJaI05

Fissile Cliff - As the Pentagon braces itself for falling off the fiscal cliff, a good way to save budgets would be to cut the the B-61 nuclear bomb. At a paltry $10.4 billion, “The B61 life extension program, or LEP, has become an unaffordable solution to a problem that does not appear to exist,” writes Tom Collina.

--Way to save: Scale back the program by only extending the service lives of the warheads likely to be deployed a decade from now. That could mean only upgrading the limited life components on the strategic B61-7 bomb, focusing on physical security instead of intrinsic security of the warheads, and only doing modest updates to the few B61s expected to remain in Europe. Full post at Foreign Policy. http://bit.ly/SSoQxH

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

Difficulty easing sanctions - The effectiveness of sanctions on Iran depends on a negotiating strategy that includes a plan for easing sanctions if Iran cooperates. Given how difficult it would be to roll back the complex web of US sanctions, any upcoming nuclear deal could require sanctions relief to come from Europeans easing off their oil embargo, reports Barbara Slavin at Al Monitor. http://bit.ly/SD6QYa

--ICYMI: new Iran Project report on “Weighing the Costs and Benefits of International Sanctions Against Iran,” signed by over 40 prominent experts and former officials. http://bit.ly/Vpm1Tg

Cut nukes, save $28b - “Reduce the number of deployed nuclear weapons to 1,100 by 2022 to save at least $28 billion over 10 years,” recommends a new report on making $100 billion in politically feasible defense cuts.

--Cutting to 1,100 deployed warheads over the next decade would be a “financially and strategically reasonable step,” write Lawrence Korb, Alex Rothman, and Max Hoffman in a new report for the Center for American Progress. (pdf) http://bit.ly/UiUUs4

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: Join us Monday at 2 PM for a press call on the FY 2013 National Defense Authorization Act; info here: http://t.co/3uu4X5Ym

Subcritical test - The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) conducted a subcritical experiment on plutonium as part of its efforts to enhance its computer simulations of nuclear weapons explosions. http://1.usa.gov/TJq1lp

--Incredibly underwhelming YouTube video of the experiment here. http://bit.ly/TH4FBt

Tweet - @StephenUCS: US conducts first large-scale nuclear "scaled experiment" using 1/2 size plutonium pit, 1st they've done in decades.

Essay contest - 2012-13 International Arms Control Essay Contest, sponsored by The State Department’s Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance in partnership with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) and the Center for Policy Studies (PIR) in Russia.

--Submit a 1,000-2,500 word essay on “international application of open source information and communication technologies (ICT) to arms control verification, compliance monitoring, and monitoring of sensitive facilities.” Winners get iPads. Details here. http://bit.ly/TLuWkL

--State Department press release. http://1.usa.gov/126lhIg

Amano at CFR - Yesterday, IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano spoke at the Council on Foreign Relations. Moderated discussion with George Perkovich. Video here. http://on.cfr.org/UiG6JP

Past work - To encourage Iranian cooperation, IAEA Director General Amano yesterday suggested that Iran does not need to resolve 100% of the outstanding issues, but should agree to a process that would get there. Barbara Slavin at Al Monitor has the story and quote from the CFR talk.

--On Iran’s removal of fuel from the Bushehr reactor: “Some fuel has been removed from the core but this does not pose safeguard problems...They are taking necessary [safety] measures,” said Amano. http://bit.ly/VBIwdw

How Amano’s talk played - “IAEA reports no progress on access to Iran nuclear facilities” by Shashank Bengali for the LA Times. http://lat.ms/Vo1rmm

--”U.N. nuclear chief: Alleged weapons testing site was probably sanitized by Iran” by Joby Warrick for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/Xyjexr

Qualified in Submarines - “Three Sailors assigned to USS Maine (SSBN 741) and USS Wyoming (SSBN 742) became the first female unrestricted line officers to qualify in submarines on Dec. 5,” reports Navy News. http://mnstr.me/RdHVxm

Syria contingencies - “U.S. Anxiously Shaping Contingency Options for Syrian Chemical Arsenal.”

--5 potential scenarios under discussion in the US: Chemical weapons use by Syria, imminent chemical attack, transfer of chemical weapons abroad or to violent extremists, loss of government control over a chemical site, and collapse of the central government. Full post by Elaine Grossman at Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/SD2Hng

Remembering Brubeck - Jazz great Dave Brubeck passed away this week. As we remember his music, let’s also remember how he shaped nuclear policy. From his obituary in The Washington Post: “In 1988, Mr. Brubeck and his quartet performed at a gala dinner at the U.S. ambassador’s residence in Moscow during a summit meeting between President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.”

--During “Take Five,” observers noticed that Gorbachev was tapping his fingers along with the music. “I can’t understand Russian,” Mr. Brubeck said at the time, “but I can understand body language.” A diplomatic stalemate soon dissolved, and the two leaders signed a historic treaty to dismantle nuclear weapons.

--The next day,” Mr. Brubeck’s manager Russell Gloyd recalled to The Post 20 years later, Secretary of State George P. Shultz “broke through the ranks, gave Dave a big hug and said, ‘Dave, you made the summit. No one was talking after three days. You made the breakthrough.’ ” http://wapo.st/TYbPRJ