The President’s Speech: Extending Nunn-Lugar and Advancing Nuclear Security

On the radar: Obama on Nunn-Lugar; Significance of the speech; DPRK rocket trajectory; CTR’s budget payoff; NNSA exceeds dismantlement goal; Iran snags a drone; and Seasons greetings from the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission.

December 4th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Missile by missile - “We simply cannot allow the 21st century to be darkened by the worst weapons of the 20th century. And that’s why, over the past four years, we’ve continued to make critical investments in our threat reduction programs -— not just at DOD, but at Energy and at State. In fact, we’ve been increasing funding, and sustaining it. And even as we make some very tough fiscal choices, we’re going to keep investing in these programs —- because our national security depends on it,” said President Obama in a speech at the Nunn-Lugar Symposium at the National War College yesterday.

--On continuing Nunn-Lugar: “Russia has said that our current agreement hasn’t kept pace with the changing relationship between our countries. To which we say, let’s update it. Let’s work with Russia as an equal partner. Let’s continue the work that’s so important to the security of both our countries. And I’m optimistic that we can,” said President Obama.

--”Missile by missile, warhead by warhead, shell by shell, we’re putting a bygone era behind us. Inspired by Sam Nunn and Dick Lugar, we’re moving closer to the future we seek. A future where these weapons never threaten our children again. A future where we know the security and peace of a world without nuclear weapons,” said the President. Full transcript here. http://1.usa.gov/SuZ9Dt

How it played - “Obama Calls on Russia to Renew Weapons Pact” by Peter Baker of The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/TH01nr

Rachel and Joe talk nukes - Ploughshares President Joe Cirincione sat down with Rachel Maddow on MSNBC last night to discuss President Obama's speech, his policy record in his first term, and the outlook for the next four years. Video of the interview here. http://youtu.be/r8EXfvjpyxg

Speech context - The President “delivered his remarks in front of many of the most important stakeholders in the inter-agency responsible for nuclear policy and security including the Secretary of Defense, the head of US Strategic Command, and other key officials at the National Security Council and the Departments of Defense and State...This heightened the President's message that nuclear threat reduction will continue to be one of his top national security priorities in his second term,” writes Kingston Reif at Nukes of Hazard. http://bit.ly/SuVllA

Arms control forecast - "I assume the president has a more ambitious arms control agenda for his second term," said Steven Pifer of the Brookings Institution. "He needs to set out his agenda sooner rather than later...If he wants another treaty as part of his legacy, it has to be done in time for a ratification debate in 2015, not in the 2016 election year." From the LA Times. http://lat.ms/UmbxFj

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Splashdown zones - North Korea’s upcoming rocket launch is projected to follow roughly the same trajectory as the North’s previous launch, based on the splashdown zones North Korea submitted to the International Maritime Organization. The rocket’s first stage and a shroud over the upper stage are expected to splash down in the East China Sea with the second stage splashing down near the northeast coast of the Philippines. David Wright at All Things Nuclear plots the coordinates. http://bit.ly/Xme3As

--Background: North Korea’s April launch failed early into flight, with the engines burning for two minutes before the rocket broke apart and splashed down after traveling less than 400 km. Also from David Wright. http://bit.ly/Rz9MYK

One-hundredth of one percent - “Programs like Nunn-Lugar remain our most effective and efficient instrument to prevent from the outset the costly and potentially deadly prospect of WMD use. For less than one one-hundredth of one percent of the annual defense budget, we are buying down the risk of having to respond to WMD use, to perform costly consequence management activities, to treat or halt the spread of deadly or contagious diseases, and most importantly, to save countless lives,” said Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter at the CTR Symposium yesterday.

--”That is the legacy of the CTR program. And none of it would be possible without the vision, the leadership, the courage, and determination of two of our finest statesmen, Sam Nunn and Dick Lugar.” http://1.usa.gov/11Ng8VC

Promises - Has President Obama reduced the nuclear threat? Politifact scores the president’s promise on nuclear policy: four promises kept, three compromises, and one promise broken. Full rundown here. http://bit.ly/TzYShg

Tweet - @BarbaraSlavin: Iran hints direct talks with US are possible if backed by Supreme Leader Khamenei http://wapo.st/TDu8iI

Command-and-control - “The Air Force Materiel Command on Tuesday launched a procurement for new satellite terminals for the global command-and-control system that provides for management of nuclear forces by the president,” reports Nextgov. The program is expected to cost $196 million through FY2017. http://bit.ly/VjvmM9

Dismantlement - NNSA announced yesterday that it had reached 112% of its nuclear weapons dismantlement goal for FY2012. The percentage obscures the details, but NNSA says it “dismantled a number of B61 and B83-0/1 bombs and W76-0, W80-0, W84, and W78 warheads.” Oak Ridge Today has the story. http://bit.ly/SJGgfN

Report - “Nonproliferation and Disarmament Fund: State Should Better Assure the Effective Use of Program Authorities,” GAO, November 2012. http://1.usa.gov/VtrX3i

Captured Drone - Yesterday, Iran claimed to have captured a US Scan Eagle UAV. ”Iran stands to gain little from examining and even disassembling” the fairly basic, 40-pound UAV, writes David Axe at Danger Room. “Whether real or faked, however, the supposed capture is indicative of the ramp-up in U.S. robotic surveillance tied to increasing concern over Iran’s nuclear program.” http://bit.ly/Vjyms5

Tweet - @Wellerstein: Season's Greetings from the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, 1966 (on ebay) http://bit.ly/YvOqPf