Near-term Options for Nuclear Reductions with Russia

On the radar: Reciprocal actions, deeper reductions; White House supports CMRR cut; No vote for East Coast BMD; Latest sanctions proposal; US deadline on Iran; Second term challenges with Iran, missile defense, and China; RoK scrubs launch; and an Explosive report on lunar research.

November 30th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Further reductions - “The United States has reduced its nuclear arsenal without negotiating a new treaty in the past – both unilaterally and reciprocally with Russia. Similar adjustments to the nuclear force could be considered again as the United States reduces the role and number of nuclear weapons in its national security strategy,” writes the Secretary of State’s International Security Advisory Board in a memo on implementing additional nuclear reductions.

--The ISAB offers “three modest initiatives” for making further reductions with Russia: 1) Meet New START limits early and implement reductions prior to the 2015 NPT review conference; 2) Make progress on nonstrategic weapons by increasing transparency and working on verification and definitional challenges; and 3) Implement mutual reductions below New START as a matter of national policy, if Russia reciprocates.

--Advisory board members include Sec. William Perry, Charles Curtis, Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft, Amb. Robert Gallucci, Amb. James Goodby, Lt. Gen. Frank Klotz, Ellen Williams, Walt Slocombe, Bruce Blair, and Ploughshares Fund’s Joe Cirincione. Read the full report here. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/TwBDbh

Tweet - @Cirincione: WH says it will veto a DOD bill that stuffs back in the wasteful plutonium pit plant. A win for good government. http://bit.ly/V8mfOm

CMRR veto threat - “The Administration strongly objects to section 3111, which would require construction of the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research Replacement (CMRR) facility to begin in 2013. The Departments of Defense and Energy agree that, in light of today's fiscal environment, CMRR can be deferred for at least five years, and 3 funds reallocated to support higher priority nuclear weapons goals.” From the Office of Management and Budget’s Statement of Administration Policy for the FY13 National Defense Authorization Act. http://1.usa.gov/SyHFWg

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MEADS in the SAP - The White House also objected to sections of the NDAA that blocked funding for the MEADS missile defense system, arguing that cancelling the program would undercut relations with Germany and Italy while halting proof of concept activities. http://1.usa.gov/SyHFWg

East Coast BMD - A controversial amendment in the Senate seeking to build an East Coast missile defense site will not get a vote. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), the proposal’s sponsor, withdrew the amendment to the defense authorization bill before it could come to a vote. The House version of the bill contains a similar proposal, leaving the fate of the East Coast site with the House-Senate conference committee. John Bennett at Defense News has the story.

--Quoted: “This was a bad idea when the House proposed it this summer, and it’s a bad idea now,” wrote Tom Collina of the Arms Control Association. http://bit.ly/SyJYc5

Iran sanctions - The Senate will soon take up a new package of Iran sanctions “that would blacklist Iran's energy, port, shipping, and shipbuilding sectors, while also placing new restrictions on Iran's ability to get insurance for all these industries,” reports Josh Rogin. Sens. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and Mark Kirk (R-IL) introduced the sanctions proposal yesterday as an amendment to the defense authorization bill. The Cable has the story. http://bit.ly/TwxdkH

Iran deadline - “If by March Iran has not begun substantive cooperation with the IAEA, the United States will work with other Board members to pursue appropriate Board action, and would urge the Board to consider reporting this lack of progress to the U.N. Security Council,” said Amb. Robert Wood to the IAEA board of governors. Fredrik Dahl of Reuters has the story. http://reut.rs/ViTgNK

Tweet - @StateDept : #SecClinton: The US is determined to prevent #Iran from acquiring a #nuclear weapon. Diplomacy is our preferred approach.

Cutting budgets - “If Congress and the White House are serious about reducing the growing federal deficit, they must seize the opportunity to scale back costly schemes for building a new generation of strategic nuclear delivery systems and rebuilding tactical nuclear bombs.” writes Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association.

--Recommendations: Scale back the submarine force to 8 or fewer boats, delay buying a new strategic bomber, and cut the ICBM force to 300. Full post here. http://bit.ly/UukPkQ

Interview - “Learning From The Cold War, Avoiding The Next One.” NPR’s “Talk of the Nation” speaks with Graham Allison, Cheng Li and Ashley Tellis. Audio here. http://n.pr/QS8F6z

Challenges and opportunities - The Carnegie Endowment released a new book Global Ten: Challenges and Opportunities for the President in 2013, featuring experts on the most pressing issues facing President Obama in his second term. (Free pdf book) http://bit.ly/ViVuNi

On Iran - “The challenges of diplomacy with Tehran are undeniable. But the potential ramifications of a military attack on Iran are so dire that President Obama must give engagement another chance...the realistic aim of diplomacy should not be forging a comprehensive, long-term agreement. The administration should instead focus on motivating Iran to cap its nuclear development,” write Karim Sadjadpour and George Perkovich in a chapter on “The Iranian Nuclear Threat” for Global Ten. http://bit.ly/SyNOlB

On missile defense cooperation - “The Obama administration has a unique opportunity to redefine the U.S.-Russian strategic relationship by cooperating with Moscow on missile defense...technology sharing, data exchanges, and joint staff exercises could pave the way for negotiations on long-stalled issues like nonstrategic nuclear weapons,” write Amb. James Collins and Dmitri Trenin of Carnegie. Part of Global Ten. http://bit.ly/UftOEd

On US-China cooperation - ”To make progress [engaging China] in his second term, President Obama should offer a broader vision for strategic cooperation that includes reducing nuclear risks by restraining competition in the conventional realm,” writes James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment. Part of Global Ten. http://bit.ly/Tw9woV

Scrubbed launch - “South Korea on Thursday scrapped an attempt to fire its first satellite into orbit from its own soil amid speculation that North Korea was preparing to fire its own long-range rocket. Scientists in South Korea cited technical problems with the rocket's flight control system,” reports AP. http://yhoo.it/RnM9lR

Tweet - @AaronMehta: Seriously guys I cannot stress this enough: The U.S. government planned. To Nuke. The Moon. http://t.co/0zW6DTiA

--Original, innocuously titled, 1959 Air Force study of testing nuclear weapons on the moon: “A Study of Lunar Research Flights” (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/V9SqiB