Economic Pressure May Prove Counterproductive

On the radar: Effects of sanctions; UK says no to Iran strike; Missile defense gets a B minus; Foreseeing compromise; Nukes in the NDAA; the Cuban Hostage Crisis; $25 million over budget; Iran’s cyber proxies; and Blocking Syria’s chemical buys.

October 26th, 2012 | Edited by Mary Kaszynski and Marianne Nari Fisher

Effects of sanctions - Ratcheting up already biting sanctions may be counterproductive in changing the Iranian regime’s behavior, writes Stimson's Geneive Abdo argues in Foreign Policy.

--Poll data seems to indicate that Iranians are unlikely to rise up against the regime as economic pressure builds, blaming those who impose the sanctions instead. Moreover, the author adds, the regime seems to be increasingly confident of quelling popular unrest. http://bit.ly/TkfWdC

UK bars the military option - The U.K’.s Foreign Office and Defense Ministry has determined that a pre-emptive US strike on Iran would violate international law, prompting the U.K. to bar U.S. access to British airbases and remove itself from the planning or execution processes of potential future U.S. military action on the matter.

--“The U.K. government believes that Iran does not currently meet the legal threshold for a ‘clear and present danger’ that would merit such an attack,” reports Max Fisher for the Washington Post. http://wapo.st/WO2W2J

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Quote - Thanks to extensive life extension programs, the Minuteman III “are basically new missiles except for the shell. Over the last decade we've done more than $7 billion worth of upgrades to 450 missiles.” Michael Knipp, ICBM program analyst, quoted in an Air Force press clip. http://1.usa.gov/RKOkf3

Fordow - Intelligence officials say Iran has finished installing the last of nearly 3,000 centrifuges at the Fordow enrichment facility, NYT’s David Sanger and William Broad report. http://nyti.ms/PUDNl2

80 percent effective - The Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and PATRIOT systems successfully intercepted four of out five targets yesterday in what the Pentagon calls the most complex test of its missile defense systems to date. Reuters reports. http://bit.ly/P87Lke

Could Khamenei compromise? - Supreme Leader Khamenei’s leadership style and failure to build national consensus for his nuclear policies indicate that he may be willing to compromise, argues Meir Javedanfar in Al-Monitor.

--“Khamenei could ultimately face the economic collapse of his regime. This is a price which Iran’s most powerful man would be unwilling to pay....The same challenges that are likely to force Khamenei to make nuclear compromises are also likely to deter him from making a mad dash for the bomb,” the author concludes. http://bit.ly/UHwDli

NDAA recommendations - In advance of the lame duck session, the Project on Government Oversight calls on the Armed Services Chairs to eliminate unnecessary programs in the National Defense Authorization Act.

--Included in the recommendations are several multibillion nuclear programs: the CMRR-Nuclear Facility ($5.9 billion); the Uranium Processing Facility at Y-12 ($7.5 billion); and the B61 LEP ($10 billion). http://bit.ly/VJ7ckO

Iran talks update - Wednesday’s call between EU Deputy Secretary-General Helga Schmid and Dr. Ali Bagheri, Deputy Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, will be followed by a call between EU Foreign Policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iranian negotiator Said Jalili on next steps in the nuclear negotiations, AFP reports. http://bit.ly/RN6tcl

Iraq ratifies Additional Protocol - The IAEA is heightening its role of monitoring in the Middle East, and was formally approved on Tuesday to step up regulation in Iraq. These efforts and Iraq’s ratification of the Additional Protocol are precautionary steps to ensure “Baghdad did not covertly restart its nuclear arms research effort.” NTI’s Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/TebVD2

Tweet - @wellerstein: At the time of the Missile Crisis, the Soviets had already put 158 nukes on the island | About those nukes in Cuba... http://bit.ly/RPW6o9

Lessons from Castro - Unbeknownst to the two Cold War superpowers, Fidel Castro expected Cuba to be ground zero of a nuclear conflict. “By ignoring Mr. Castro’s messianic martyrdom, both Kennedy and Khrushchev inadvertently pushed the world close to Armageddon,” James G. Blight and Janet M. Lang write in the New York Times.

--“Today we must be wary of backing the Iranians into a corner so that they feel they must choose between capitulation and martyrdom,” the authors conclude. “In 1962, the Soviets just barely stopped the Cubans; this time, there is no Khrushchev.” http://nyti.ms/WNZxB1

$213 million - “After more than seven years’ work and $213 million, the new security system at Los Alamos National Laboratory’s most important nuclear weapons manufacturing site doesn’t work.” According to an internal NNSA memo, cost overruns for the project, which has been delayed indefinitely, total between $21 and $25 million. Albuquerque Journal’s John Fleck with the story. http://bit.ly/ScG36l

Cyber proxy wars - Iranian cyber attacks in recent months against tens of thousands of private oil company computers alludes to building tensions with its Arab adversaries. The attacks signal its ability to disturb the market and potential to cripple the region’s oil economy. “Don’t underestimate Iran,” writes Bruce Riedel in The Daily Beast. http://bit.ly/PvAiBK

Halting Syria’s chemical expansion - The U.S. and allies have successfully blocked many of Assad’s attempts to enlarge Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. Still, as the conflict in Syria continues, the 500 metric ton stockpiles of nerve and mustard agents stored around 25 locations across the country are a cause of international concern. Danger Room’s Noah Shachtman investigates. http://bit.ly/SEvLcD