Why Russia Won’t Wreck the Iran Negotiations

March 27, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka

Russia’s interests in a deal - “As U.S.-Russian tensions mount over Moscow's annexation of Crimea, concerns have emerged about potential fall-out on areas of cooperation between the two world powers,” writes Suzanne Maloney for the Brookings Institution. “The ongoing Iran nuclear negotiations, where the two states have partnered with Europe and China to hammer out a diplomatic framework for thwarting Iran's nuclear ambitions, loom large amidst the uncertainty...Today, there are at least three important factors that suggest that it may be possible to preserve cooperation on the Iranian nuclear file, even as Washington and Moscow spar over Crimea,” Maloney says.

--Reasons: “Russia shares American interests in preventing an Iranian nuclear weapons capability...The alternatives to the diplomatic process are mostly negative for Moscow… Russia's economic relationship with Iran is too modest to subvert the sanctions regime.” Read the full analysis at Brookings. http://bit.ly/1eURj2o

Tweet - @insidedefense: Pentagon: European Missile Defense System Will Cost $20 Billion Through 2040. Inside the Pentagon: (paywall) http://t.co/q1XFc895qI

Dirty bomb cooperation - “Twenty-three nations participating in the Nuclear Security Summit in the Netherlands this week said they intend to comply with international guidelines regarding the security of so-called ‘dirty bomb’ material,” reports Douglas Guarino for Global Security Newswire. “The parties to the multilateral statement -- including the United States and countries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East -- pledged to secure all their most dangerous ‘Category I’ radiological sources under guidelines set out by the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency. Specifically, they vowed to follow the IAEA ‘Code of Conduct on the Safety and Security of Radioactive Sources.’” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1gFAKK2

Photoset - ”NSS 2014 - Italy Highly Enriched Uranium and Plutonium Removals.” http://bit.ly/1m8cpMc

Tweet - @meganegarcia: Wondering who gave "gift baskets" at the Nuclear Security Summit? See all joint statements in 1 handy place: http://t.co/AiqLuwBEtY

Seeking assistance - “Ukraine on Tuesday said it might seek foreign help to guard its atomic facilities amid the country's current turmoil,” Global Security Newswire reports. The acting foreign affairs minister described a “potential threat to many nuclear facilities and other critical infrastructure on the territory of Ukraine, including in Crimea,” saying “There is no immediate danger. However, if the situation aggravates Ukraine [we] may be in need of international assistance to protect these facilities." Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1hZENgR

Defending plutonium - “Japan on Tuesday defended its retention of a large stockpile of plutonium, which arms control advocates want to see reduced,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The International Atomic Energy Agency has concluded that all the plutonium in Japan is for peaceful purposes under its safeguards," said Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the Nuclear Security Summit. "We voluntarily have disclosed information about our management of plutonium and the information is more detailed than advised in international guidelines.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1eUxGHQ

On shaky ground - “Five years ago, President Barack Obama was preparing to deliver a speech in Prague calling for the elimination of nuclear weapons,” writes Michael Krepon in Arms Control Wonk. “Nongovernmental organizations, including the Stimson Center, helped with blueprints for getting to zero, and distinguished ‘formers’ were lending their names to the cause. Now these initiatives seem like headlines from a bygone era. The pursuit of a world without nuclear weapons remains an essential complement to nuclear non-proliferation, but this quest cannot be divorced from international relations. President Obama continues to try to reduce nuclear dangers at Nuclear Security Summits and in negotiations with Iran, but progress comes grudgingly. The need of the hour is to prevent further backsliding, not to promote sweeping plans.

--”Three of the load-bearing walls of nuclear order – the NPT, a treaty-based process of strategic arms reduction, and the pursuit of abolition – are in need of repair. Nuclear Security Summits to set global norms for the responsible handling of dangerous material have been essential: If these stocks are not battened down, there is no basis for nuclear security. But larger gains are needed, and hard to envision anytime soon. Five short years after the Prague speech, the nuclear order has become wobbly.” Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1hxloSZ

INF politics - “Six U.S. Republican senators on Tuesday introduced a resolution voicing concern about an alleged Russian breach of a 1987 arms control treaty,” write Diane Barnes and Elaine Grossman in Global Security Newswire. “GOP lawmakers have assailed Obama administration officials for what they see as an insufficient U.S. response to suspicions that Moscow has tested missiles in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. In the accord, the United States and Russia agreed to refrain from testing or fielding ballistic or cruise missiles with ranges between 300 and 3,400 miles.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1l7axTT

Condemning North Korea - “The U.N. Security Council will hold closed-door consultations on Thursday to discuss a possible condemnation of North Korea's latest ballistic missile launches,” writes Louis Charbonneau in Reuters. Read the full article here. http://reut.rs/1loFK7I

NATO denuclearizing itself - “If NATO partners eventually cease to maintain attack aircraft capable of delivering fielded U.S. nuclear bombs, then allied jets could ‘pick up the load,’” writes Rachel Oswald in Global Security Newswire. Air Force Chief of Staff General Mark Welsh’s March 14 congressional testimony “[suggests] the Pentagon is planning for its tactical nuclear weapons role in Europe to continue, irrespective of the future air-delivery capability of NATO hosting states. Arms control advocates had previously argued that the United States should withdraw its nonstrategic weapons from the continent if NATO partners do not modernize their dual-capable aircraft.” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1dxPOcd

Dealing with Pakistan - "The time has come to offer Pakistan a nuclear cooperation deal akin to India's...Providing a formula for nuclear normalization is the most powerful tool that Western countries can wield in positively shaping Pakistan's nuclear posture," writes Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in a new book about Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. “Fitzpatrick said no solution was ideal, but he called for Western nations to offer Pakistan a deal along the lines of a 2005 accord with India, which allowed normal access to commercial nuclear markets despite its refusal to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty.” AFP previews the book here.http://bit.ly/QjtQPL

Sec. James Schlesinger, 1929-2014 - “James R. Schlesinger, CIA chief and Cabinet member, dies.” The former Secretary of Energy and Defense and long-time public servant was 85. Obituary from The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/QjGNJv

In memoriam - “Jonathan Schell, a best-selling nonfiction author whose books explored warfare in its myriad 20th-century incarnations, from a scathing indictment of United States policy in Vietnam to a sobering portrait of the world in the aftermath of a nuclear holocaust, died on Tuesday at his home in Brooklyn. He was 70.” Full piece by Margalit Fox in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1gFEkDS

Quick-hits:

--”Obama’s Manhattan Nuke Comment No Indication of Threat” by Mark Silva in Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/1jQkOlS

--”Safety Forum to Focus on UPF Nuclear Safety Culture” in Oak Ridge Today. http://bit.ly/1dvqxiB

--”India Successfully Tests Ballistic Missile Designed for Submarine” in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1m8b7kf

Events:

--“Thermonuclear Monarchy: Choosing Between Democracy and Doom.” Discussion with Elaine Scarry. March 27 from 5:00-7:00 at George Washington University, room 505, 1957 E St. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1psdNJx

--“Humanitarian Impacts of Nuclear Weapons Initiative and its Relationship to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.” Discussion with Ira Helfand and Guakhar Mukhatzhanova. March 31 from 9:30-11:30 at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/NxfOaY

--“Creating a Legacy for the Nuclear Security Summit.” Discussion with Kenneth Luongo and Sharon Squassoni. April 2 from 12:00-1:30 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2nd floor conference room A, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. RSVP by email to PPP@csis.org

Dessert:

Kim-personator - “World's First Kim Jong-un Impersonator Wows Onlookers In Hong Kong.” Video from Barcroft TV. http://bit.ly/1hdUEum

Tweet - @russianforces: Inflatable Topol-M ICBMs in Teykovo… Wouldn't it be nice if all ICBMs looked like that? http://t.co/2v1rF4hg3q