US and South Korea Punt on Controversial Nuclear Deal

On the radar: Hung up on enrichment and reprocessing; Sen. Graham’s pork politics; Warheads before nonproliferation; B61 a strange priority; Iran’s presidential and nuclear politics; and George Bunn, 1925-2013.

April 24, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Not as easy as 123 - Unable to agree on the issue of South Korean uranium enrichment, Washington and Seoul have decided to postpone the deadline for a nuclear energy deal by two years. The major hang up - Seoul wants the U.S. to lift a ban on enriching uranium and reprocessing plutonium that was put in place as part of a trade agreement signed between the two states in 1972.

--The U.S. has raised concerns about that allowing South Korea to enrich its own nuclear fuel could increase the risk of proliferation - providing the South with a capability that could be used to build nuclear bombs. After negotiations failed to produce a deal, South Korea’s foreign minister, Yun Byung-se “said [future] negotiations will be an important test of ‘trust’ between the allies,” reports Choe Sang-Hun of The New York Times. Full article here. http://owl.li/knuiU

Moniz, MOX & Graham - Sen. Lindsey Graham is placing a procedural hold on the nomination of Ernest Moniz to the post of energy secretary according to a Congressional aide. The hold is motivated by Graham’s concerns over the future of a Mixed Oxide Fuel (MOX) program in his district - a program which is “a decade behind its scheduled 2007 opening...and also three times” over budget. Zack Colman at The Hill has the story.http://owl.li/knC4d

Tweet - @Cirincione: Lindsay Graham is pitching a fit to save this $10 Billion Plutonium Boondoggle http://bit.ly/12I2qF6

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Tweet - @StephenUCS: Graham throwing fit over MOX despite $320M proposed funding for FY14. Problem is in FY15, when all $ gone and no new plan in place.

Bombs in the budget - The Obama Administration’s latest budget proposal would cut $400 million from nonproliferation programs, while adding $560 million to programs for refurbishing nuclear warheads. This left some analysts baffled that the administration’s budget appears to prioritize maintaining nuclear weapons over efforts to stop their spread.

--The cuts are falling on programs like the Global Threat Reduction Initiative (-$79 million for FY14) that would keep nuclear weapons materials out of the hands of terrorists - a program at the core of the administration’s nuclear policy priorities. Erika Eichelberger and Dana Liebelson in Mother Jones contrast the budget proposal with the Obama administration’s Prague agenda. http://bit.ly/ZOKEuJ

Bombs without a strategy - The U.S is about to spend over $11 billion to build new tactical nuclear weapons for Europe. Many nuclear experts agree the bombs in Europe “have no military value,” while advocates for the new bomb see the bombs as having political utility for some NATO allies.

--Comments Heather Hurlburt, “It seems odd to contemplate better nuclear bombs being designed by furloughed scientists and delivered by pilots who, right now, thanks to sequester, can't get enough flight hours....When no one on either side of the debate can state clearly what strategic purpose the refitted bombs would serve, surely we could spend the money on furloughed employees, or naval vessels, or tax cuts, or education, instead?” Full article in The Guardian. http://bit.ly/12I3KYI

Tweet - @WestWingReport: On This Day. Harry Truman, President just 12 days, is told about the atomic bomb. (1945) http://owl.li/knKIX

Executive engagement - The presidential elections in Iran may in fact enhance prospects for a nuclear deal. Candidates jockeying for support could offer to make modest concessions in exchange for the promise of sanctions relief - an issue important to Iranian voters, writes Carol Williams in The Los Angeles Times. To take advantage of the opportunity in Iran, support for a nuclear deal must come from the highest levels in the U.S. - the president, finds a new report from the Iran Project.

--Luckily, “Obama is in a unique position to take the advice of the veteran policymakers of the Iran Project and offer some sanctions relief in exchange for a deal on the nuclear issues...It needs to start with the president giving a mandate to very experienced and credible people like [Amb. Thomas] Pickering and [Amb. John] Limbert...Being a second-term president, Obama can be bold - and he should be, if he wants to try to make resolving the Iranian issue his legacy.” Williams has the full story here. http://owl.li/knylX

China’s posture - A recent Chinese defense paper omitted explicit reference to China’s long-standing “no first-use” nuclear posture, leading some experts to ask if China’s post is changing. Gregory Kulacki at All Things Nuclear notes that, while that one paper wasn’t explicit, China’s recent public affirmation of its no first use posture at the Nonproliferation Treaty PrepCom should assuage concerns. http://bit.ly/YQazCT

Events:

--”Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions: Costs, Risks, and Motivations.” Ali Vaez, James Acton, Mohammad jahan-Parvar and Karim Sadjadpour discuss a new report. April 25 from noon-1:45 p.m. @ Carnegie. Details here. http://bit.ly/15zOM9I

--”The Media & Iran’s Nuclear Program: An analysis of U.S. and U.K. coverage, 2009-2012” Jonas Siegal and Saranaz Barforoush present a new study, followed by discussion with John Steinbruner, Susan Moeller, Reza Marashi and Walter Pincus. April 29th from 9:00-10:30am at the Woodrow Wilson Center. http://bit.ly/13qzY9r

--”Dealing With North Korea’s Increased Belligerence.” Gordon Flake, Paul Haenle, Jin Canrong, Zhang Chuanjie, and Zhu Feng. April 29 12:00-2:200 p.m. @ Carnegie. Details here. http://owl.li/kl29g

George Bunn - “George Bunn, one of the world’s most revered advocates for a world without nuclear weapons and a consulting professor at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) for two decades, has died.”

--“George Bunn was a national treasure...Not only did he perform a crucial service to national security in his role as a negotiator of the nonproliferation treaty and other arms control treaties, but he also imparted his wisdom to a whole generation of lawyers and political scientists trying to understand how best to reduce the danger nuclear weapons in a modern world,” said Scott Sagan, former co-director at CISAC.

--Bunn is survived by his sons Matthew and Peter and grandchildren Claire and Nina. http://bit.ly/12h3ui7