Takeaways on the Iran Talks Extension

July 22, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka

Five things - “The recently extended nuclear negotiations with Iran have had to compete for front-page attention with acute crises elsewhere,” writes Paul Pillar in The National Interest. “The agreement to extend both the negotiations and the interim commitments associated with them for another four months has nonetheless provoked comments from the usual quarters, including those who have never wanted any agreement with Iran and continue to try to sabotage the negotiations.”

--Pillar outlines five key takeaways of the extension of the Iran talks: 1) The extension makes possible a continuation of major negotiating progress; 2) The need for an extension is not surprising; 3) Both sides are negotiating seriously; 4) Iran already has the biggest motivation to conclude the negotiations swiftly; and 5) Diplomacy remains the surest way to preclude an Iranian nuclear weapon. Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1nhtTYJ

Putting a lid on it - “This last weekend actually brought some good news on Iran,” writes Joe Cirincione in Defense One. “Negotiators from seven nations announced in Vienna that they had agreed to extend talks on limiting Iran’s nuclear program. The talks were up against a July 20 deadline. Diplomats had made substantial progress on many tricky issues but could not close the gap on the key problem of Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity.”

--“The extension is a good thing. It avoids a collapse of the negotiations – and thus avoids the prospect of yet another war in the Middle East or the emergence of another nuclear-weapon state. Talks will now continue until November 24, though many expect a deal could be reached sooner. While talks continue, Iran’s nuclear program remains frozen and will be pushed back in some key areas.”

--“In the end, negotiations only succeed when they forge a workable compromise that allows all sides to claim success. Until that compromise is crafted, Iran’s program remains more constrained than any time in the past decade. Sharply limited and rigorously inspected, it has been put in a box with a camera on it. After an August break, negotiators will return to see if they can put a lid on it.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/WB1Lqq

Step forward - “It was not an ideal outcome that the two sides had been unable during the five months they had been talking to reach an agreement,” writes the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette in an editorial. “On the other hand, throwing in the towel on efforts to reach accord would have been a very bad outcome and extending talks by four months, to seek to mend a rift that has existed for 35 years, was certainly not a bad thing to do… Continued punishment of Iran’s civilian population through American and others’ maintenance of economic sanctions without possibility of eventual relief is also certainly not a humane or desirable option.

--“In any event, for both sides to make it clear to the world and to their own populations that the talks remain worth pursuing, at least for another four months, is a step forward.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1sKJcNm

Tweet - @WinWithoutWar: Fmr Ambs Crocker, Luers, Picking, Wisner: Congress should NOT pass new #Iran sanctions. #LetDiplomacyWork http://bit.ly/1ryiGGI

Full IAEA Iran Report - “Status of Iran’s Nuclear Programme in Relation to the Joint Plan of Action” by the International Atomic Energy Agency. July 20th, 2014. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1rysd0z

NIAC report - “A full cost-benefit analysis of securing a comprehensive nuclear deal must include fleshing out the consequences – nuclear, military, economic, as well as the impact on Iran’s internal and external orientation – of failing to reach a deal. Diplomatic failure will not lead to a continuation of the current status quo. Rather, it will result in a deterioration of the situation with severe military, economic and security consequences.”

--“Clarity about these points must exist in order to not let the perfect become the enemy of the good. Rather than adhering to the mantra of ‘No deal is better than a bad deal,’ the inverse relationship must be considered: A good nuclear deal is better than war.” Read the full report, “A Good Deal is Better Than No Deal: The Consequences of No Nuclear Deal With Iran” from the National Iranian American Council here. http://bit.ly/1ywvP3N

Tweet - @FitzpatrickIISS: Tho they didn't get a deal, kudos to the P5+1 for keeping #Iran's nuclear capabilities frozen and diplomacy alive.

Creative solutions - “The progress that was made during the long bilateral meetings between Zarif and Kerry in Vienna reassured both sides that a deal is indeed possible,” writes Ellie Geranmayeh for European Council on Foreign Relations. “A comprehensive nuclear agreement is imperative for meeting Western proliferation concerns – upping sanctions or carrying out a military strike would only serve to slow rather than prevent Iran from developing a weaponised nuclear programme. The military route in particular would further destabilise an already turbulent Middle East.”

--“Technically, there are creative solutions on the table. What we need now is a diplomatic breakthrough that far exceeds any precedent between the West and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Politicians on both sides will have to take a leap of faith in order to trust that their counterpart can deliver and make decisions that will continue to build confidence.” Read the full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1mzVcJt

Sanctions hold-off - “The European Union has agreed to keep holding off on some sanctions against Iran as negotiations continue on a comprehensive deal restricting the Islamic republic's nuclear program,” AP reports. Full article here. http://apne.ws/1jTiFdR

Oil sales - “Iran’s oil exports will remain near the highest level in two years as talks with six global powers over the Persian Gulf state’s nuclear program are extended for four more months,” reports Anthony DiPaola for Bloomberg.

--“Iran’s going to want oil exports to keep edging up, and the U.S. has been willing to allow some wiggle room,” says Robin Mills, an analyst at Manaar Energy Consulting & Project Management. “The extension is a sign they’ve made progress on nuclear talks and think they can reach a deal. The U.S. won’t let oil exports get in the way.” Full story here. http://bloom.bg/1rjg5Pb

Facility modernization - “Senate appropriators last week approved a bill that would require the Pentagon to study how to modernize facilities storing U.S. nuclear warheads,” writes Rachel Oswald in Global Security Newswire. “Language inserted by Senator Mary Landrieu (D-La.) during a committee mark-up of the fiscal 2015 defense appropriations legislation would give the Air Force three months to develop a comprehensive plan for updating its five warhead storage sites.”

--“Landrieu is particularly focused on seeing the Barksdale Air Force Base's conventional-munitions storage area upgraded to handle nuclear arms, as it once did in the past. Presently, B-52 bombers based at Barksdale, headquarters of Air Force Global Strike Command, must fly to other bases to be loaded with atomic weapons. Barksdale is second-in-line on the Air Force's list of weapon storage areas slated to receive an upgrade, according to the press release. Landrieu's amendment would require the Air Force to explain its rationale for prioritizing which storage sites get upgrades.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1ubAdX8

Radiation reward - “The private operator of a federal nuclear waste dump received a large bonus for ‘excellent’ work several days after a radiation leak shut down the site,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The $1.9 million bonus that the Energy Department awarded to contractor Nuclear Waste Partnership five days after a radiation leak occurred at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant is looking increasingly ill-advised.”

--“It is not yet apparent why Energy officials decided to go forward with handing out the bonus or what, if any, consequences will fall on the U.S. officials tasked with oversight of the underground atomic waste site, located near Carlsbad, New Mexico. The nuclear dump remains closed months after the February leak incident, which contaminated over 20 personnel.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1qygLlS

Quick-hits:

--“Putin Poised to Retaliate Against Obama by Trashing Iran Deal” by Josh Rogin in The Daily Beast. http://thebea.st/1zSyJS0

--“Even a Small Nuclear Showdown Would Mean Worldwide Disaster” by Sarah Zhang in Gizmodo. http://bit.ly/Um0UrW

Events:

--“The Future of WMD in 2030.” Off the record discussion with John Caves and Seth Carus. July 24 12:00 to 1:30 at the National Defense University, Lincoln Hall, Room 1119, Fort McNair, Washington. RSVP by email to Nima Gerami at nima.gerami@ndu.edu.

--“Nuclear Politics on the Korean Peninsula.” Discussion with seven speakers. July 28 from 3:00 to 5:15 at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1sTSpjA

--“Hiroshima Peace Commemoration.” Sponsored by the DC Hiroshima-Nagasaki Peace Committee. August 5 at 6:30 at the Martin Luther King, Jr. Memorial, 1964 Independence Ave., SW, Washington.

--“The Nuclear Zero Lawsuits: Why the Tiny Marshall Islands Took on the Nuclear Nine.” Discussion with Rick Wayman, Neisen Laukon, and Erica Fein. August 6 from 3:00 to 4:00. Registration for online webinar available here. http://bit.ly/1k8nf8p