Russia Found in Violation of Reagan-Era Nuclear Treaty

July 29, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Ben Loehrke

Violation - “The United States has determined that the Russian Federation is in violation of its obligations under the [1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty] not to possess, produce or flight test a ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) with a range capability of 500 kilometers to 5,500 kilometers or to possess or produce launchers of such missiles,” an upcoming report from the State Department will say.

--President Obama conveyed this finding to President Putin in a letter on Monday. Secretary Kerry raised the violation with Foreign Minister Lavrov in a call on Sunday. Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller first raised the issue with Russian officials in May of 2013, however “Russian officials said that they had looked into the matter and consider the issue to be closed.”

--”In recent months, however, the issue has been taken up by top-level officials, including a meeting early this month of the Principals’ Committee, a cabinet-level body that includes Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, the defense secretary, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the secretary of state and the director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Senior officials said the president’s most senior advisers unanimously agreed that the test was a serious violation, and the allegation will be made public soon in the State Department’s annual report on international compliance with arms control agreements.” Full story from Michael Gordon of The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1uDwpOx

In perspective - "We call on Russia to immediately halt all activities that are inconsistent with the INF Treaty, verifiably dismantle any missiles that have been tested in violation of the treaty--along with their launch canisters and launchers--respond to formal requests for clarification, and announce that it will uphold all aspects of the INF Treaty in the future," said Greg Thielmann, Arms Control Association senior fellow and a former State Department official who participated in the INF negotiations.

--"Despite Russia's technical violation of the INF Treaty, there is no reason for the United States to alter its ongoing implementation of the treaty, which has served U.S. national security interests well for over 25 years. The United States has no military need to deploy ground-launched ballistic or cruise missiles capable of traveling 500 to 5,500 kilometers, which are banned by the treaty. U.S. withdrawal would only give Russia an excuse to do the same, allowing Moscow to produce and deploy INF missiles," Thielmann warned. http://bit.ly/1oGhYov

Tweet - @Cirincione: I told @CBSRadioNews late last night that Russia violation of INF treaty is a serious issue but not a serious threat.

Re-Up - “An Intercontinental Ballistic Missile by Any Other Name: Has Russia broken its pledge not to test medium-range nukes? The answer isn't as clear as you might think,” by Jeffrey Lewis in Foreign Policy. April 25, 2014. http://atfp.co/1nxcRXG

Iran hearings today - “We believe strongly that it is worth taking additional time to pursue these very complicated and technical negotiations. We wouldn’t have agreed to an extension if we did not have an honest expectation that we have a credible path forward; but we would have finished long ago if the task were simple. We still have work to do. We still have time to determine whether we can close the gap between what Iran has said it intends and what it is willing to do,” said Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman in written testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Written statement here. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1tnpMyj

--“While this four-month extension will provide additional time and space for the negotiations to proceed, it will not change the basic facts and numbers on the ground. The Iranian economy is in deep distress and an additional four months of limited sanctions relief will not change that. In the meantime, we will not let up one iota in our sanctions enforcement efforts, and we are prepared to take action against anyone, anywhere who violates, or attempts to violate, our sanctions,” said Under Secretary of the Treasury Department David Cohen in written testimony to SFRC. Written statement here. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1s1ejS8

Sanctions analysis - “A Quick Analysis of the Iran Nuclear Negotiations Act of 2014” by Ed Levine, former senior professional staff member for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. From Nukes of Hazard. http://bit.ly/1oGeG4z

John Oliver on nukes - “Today we spend less time worrying about nuclear annihilation than we do worrying about whether or not we hit reply all on an office email… but maybe we should be worrying about nuclear warheads a bit more,” said John Oliver on HBO’s Last Week Tonight. As Oliver reports, a string of ethical breakdowns in the Air Force ICBM force made the following a theoretical (satirical) possibility:

--“This means that within the last 12 months we were in a situation where, in the event of us launching a nuclear strike, the president’s command would theoretically have gone through a man gambling with fake poker chips, who would have then tried to call a drunk guy wrestling with a Russian George Harrison, who would have then needed to send someone with a bag full of burritos to wake up an officer and tell him to go grab an LP-size floppy disk and begin the solemn process of ending the world as we know it,” said Oliver.

--“At a time of budgetary cutbacks we are spending $355 billion over the next decade,” Oliver says, despite the fact that “nuclear weapons are essentially like American’s T-Rex arms. They are essentially useless, and you are already plenty scary enough without them.” Watch the full bit here. http://bit.ly/1xuCV6A

Fail safes now pass-fail - “There was a tag line that's been with missiles for 40 years that perfection is the standard...That idea that you have to be perfect no longer applies,” said Lt. Col. Barry Little of new management changing in testing and training U.S. ICBM launch officers.

--“In the wake of a major cheating scandal among missile officers, the Air Force is changing the way it grades [missileers on launch proficiency exams]. From here on out, all tests are pass-fail, and individual scores are not recorded.” Geoff Brumfiel of NPR’s All Things Considered has the story. http://n.pr/1o9cTzZ

Ethics - “The Air Force's top-ranking officer says he is ‘very happy’ with the service's ‘ethical fabric,’ regardless of recent scandals involving the nuclear-missileer corps,” Global Security Newswire reports.

--“Do we have incidents? Absolutely," Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Welsh said. "Any organization with almost 700,000 people is going to have incidents. But we do not have an epidemic of bad ethical behavior by people across the Air Force." Full article here. http://bit.ly/1uDDdvM

Save the pork - South Carolina lawmakers after a tour of the Savannah River Site said they had secured enough money to keep the Mixed Oxide Fuel facility from being suspended. The Obama administration slated the project for cold standby after program cost estimates hit $20 billion. Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz said construction at the site will continue until at least the fall. Meg Kinnard of AP has the story. http://abcn.ws/1kkRSrr

Wanting pork, not nuclear waste in their backyard - “U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz on Monday defended his agency's controversial move to consider processing spent nuclear fuel from Germany at South Carolina's Savannah River Site nuclear facility,” reports Harriet McLeod for Reuters.

--"What we don't want is for this site to remain a dumping ground...Do we take on now German waste when there is no end game?" said South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Full story here. http://reut.rs/1qgIkLD

Mirroring - “A measure submitted by Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani would expand the body's supervisory role in Tehran's negotiations with the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany,” reports Global Security Newswire. “The announcement came days after a group of U.S. lawmakers moved to require congressional approval of any long-term nuclear agreement with Iran.” http://bit.ly/WLAstt

China’s BMD perspective - “Chinese perceptions of the U.S. national missile defense program are changing,” writes Gregory Kulacki in All Things Nuclear. “Initial concerns about a technological arms race China could not win are gradually giving way to less alarming Chinese assessments. Most Chinese observers do not view the capabilities of existing U.S. missile defense technology as an immediate military challenge. But Chinese observers do see continued U.S investments in missile defense, particularly those that involve cooperation with nations on China’s periphery, as a cause for concern over the long term.” Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1oGg9YO

Tweet - @OswaldRachel: Wow RT @frankmunger After employee outcry, ORNL cancels training course to help Southerners reduce their accents. http://t.co/f4uwkc2PHJ

Scotland’s nuclear price tag - “Scotland may pay $1.7 billion over the next decade to care for the United Kingdom's fleet of nuclear-armed submarines,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The locally governing Scottish National Party floated the figure weeks before a planned vote on whether Scotland will secede from the United Kingdom. The party has pledged to have all British nuclear warheads, ballistic missiles and strategic submarines withdrawn from Scotland by 2020 following a potential ‘pro-independence’ vote in September.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1xuvk85

Violations remedied - “An underground nuclear waste dump in New Mexico that leaked radiation in February was cited by federal mine safety inspectors for dozens of workplace violations, almost all of which have been remedied,” writes Laura Zuckerman in Reuters. “Operations at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in the southeastern New Mexico desert have been indefinitely suspended as a team of investigators seek the cause for a radiation release.” Full story here. http://reut.rs/1k5A8jl

Quick Hits

--“House Passes Bill to Toughen North Korea Sanctions” by Cristina Marcos in The Hill. http://bit.ly/UIwKyN

--“Team Malmstrom completes codes change for ICBM fleet” from 3KRTV. http://bit.ly/1qgIQt9

--“India's Quest for Atomic Trade Group Membership Faces Hurdles: Expert” from Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/WLzihC

--“2 USAF missileers to work with Navy in morale-improvement exercise” by Brian Everstein in the Military Times. http://bit.ly/1qIH4py

Events:

--“Protecting the Homeland from Nuclear and Radiological Threats.” Hearing from House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection and Security Technologies. Testimony from Huban Gowadia and David Trimble. July 29 at 2:00 at 311 Cannon House Office Building. Webcast available on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/UgkoOw

--“Iran Nuclear Negotiations: From Extension to Final Agreement?” Hearing of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. Testimony from Wendy Sherman and David Cohen. July 29 at 2:00 at 2172 Rayburn House Office Building. Webcast available on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1nC8jyk

--“Nuclear Security Cuts: Why Now, What’s at Stake, and What’s Next?” Lunch briefing with Matthew Bunn and William Tobey. July 31 from 12:30 to 1:30 at 1747 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 7th floor. RSVP by email to osh_burek@hks.harvard.edu

--“Hiroshima Peace Commemoration.” Sponsored by the DC Hiroshima-Nagasaki Peace Committee. August 5 at 6:30 at the Martin Luther King, Jr. Memorial, 1964 Independence Ave., SW, Washington.

--“The Nuclear Zero Lawsuits: Why the Tiny Marshall Islands Took on the Nuclear Nine.” Discussion with Rick Wayman, Neisen Laukon, and Erica Fein. August 6 from 3:00 to 4:00. Registration for online webinar available here. http://bit.ly/1k8nf8p