Redlines & Negotiations: Aligning Views on Preventing an Iranian Nuclear Weapon

On the radar: Netanyahu aligns with Obama; New START reductions update; Uranium facility getting even bigger; Operational mishaps; Iranian posturing, Russian radars; More context on modernization costs; and 50 years after the Cuban Missile Crisis.

October 3, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Breaking - “Iran police clash with protesters over currency crisis” from BBC News. http://bbc.in/VuIuSm

Aligning views - “By literally drawing a red line to show how far he could tolerate Iran's nuclear program, [Prime Minister] Netanyahu in effect approved of the international efforts led by the Obama administration to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,” writes Joel Rubin at The Mideast Channel.

--By not saying any Iranian nuclear program is unacceptable, Netanyahu implied that - with strict safeguards and limits - Israel could live with some form of an Iranian enrichment program, argues Rubin. “This is where the international negotiations, led by the Obama administration, have been heading. And now Netanyahu has publicly signed off on this approach.”

--Rubin assesses Netanyahu’s redline, the consequences of military options, Iran’s enrichment work, and the outlook for a diplomatic solution. Read the full post here. http://bit.ly/PayVaW

New START Data - As of September 1, the U.S. had 806 deployed strategic delivery vehicles out of 1034 total, with 1722 deployed strategic nuclear warheads. This is a slight decrease from March reports, when numbers were 812, 1040, and 1737 respectively.

--Russia had 491 deployed strategic delivery vehicles out of 884 total, with 1499 deployed strategic nuclear warheads. This is a slight decrease from March reports, when numbers were 494, 881, and 1492 respectively. State Dept. has the treaty report. http://1.usa.gov/RApJLn

Back to drawing board - After $500 million spent on years of design work, the Uranium Processing Facility (UPF) is getting a redesign because current plans do not provide enough space for all of the proposed equipment. The nuclear weapons plant was already the labeled as the biggest construction project in Tennessee history, costing an estimated $4.2 to $6.5 billion. It’s not yet clear what the projected cost will be after a redesign.

--The project director for UPF told the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board that building’s roof will need to be raised 13 feet, the concrete foundation made a foot thicker, and the walls thickened from 18 to 30 inches. Frank Munger at The Knoxville News Sentinel has the story. http://bit.ly/QFs6d2

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Tweet - @AFGSC_CC Gen. Jim Kowalski: 21 yrs ago Pres Bush ended bomber nuke alert. Airmen remember B-47s,"mole holes," & Cold War. http://bit.ly/QFpETJ

Commitments - The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg compiled a chronology of President Obama’s statements committing to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. “Given the number of times he's told the American public, and the world, that he will stop Iran from going nuclear, it is hard to believe that he will suddenly change his mind and back out of his promise,” writes Goldberg. http://bit.ly/QFKYbK

CRS Report - “Iran’s Nuclear Program: Status” by Paul Kerr, Sept. 26, 2012. (pdf) http://bit.ly/SxTYne

Jitters - “The Iranian military was so apprehensive about the threat of an Israeli airstrike on its nuclear installations in 2007 and 2008 that it mistakenly fired on civilian airliners and, in one instance, on one of its own military aircraft, according to classified American intelligence reports.” Michael Gordon at The New York Times has the details.

--Pentagon report title: “Operational Mishaps by Air Defense Units.” http://nyti.ms/UFuxgV

Posturing - An Iranian MP, Mansour Haqiqatpour, suggested that if negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program fail, Iran could begin uranium enrichment up to 60 percent for fueling submarines or other ocean-going vessels. Reuters has the story.

--It should be noted that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei makes the nuclear decisions. So one MP’s remarks should not be taken at face value. Also, Iran doesn’t have any nuclear-powered naval vessels. http://reut.rs/PWxnhI

Gabala - Russia is expected to renew its arrangement with Azerbaijan that allows it to maintain an early warning radar at the Gabala site. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/RAvKaX

Modernization costs - Dana Priest’s recent Washington Post series on the U.S. nuclear arsenal highlighted the enormous costs of modernizing and maintaining the arsenal. But some of the points made require further examination and more context. Peter Stockton at the Project on Government Oversight does some fact checking. http://bit.ly/T15lA4

SSBN crews - The Navy has announced that it will start assigning female officers to Virginia-class and Ohio-class submarines as soon as next year. Mark Thompson at Battleland explains the personnel change and notes that, with women in naval aviation for 40 years and serving on surface ships for 35 years, it is certainly time for women to be assigned to submarines without the broo-ha-ha.” http://ti.me/Spn36b

Assessing Iran’s responses - New analysis from Alireza Nader of RAND: “Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz?” http://bit.ly/ODl2SI and ”Would Iran Turn to Terror?” http://bit.ly/VuEt02

History lesson - “Reconsidering the Perilous Cuban Missile Crisis 50 Years Later” by Barton Bernstein in Arms Control Today.

--The Cuban Missile Crisis scholar asks, “How close did the crisis come to going out of control and spiraling into war? What are the implications of such near-disasters for managing crises and for high-level decision-making, especially when involving nuclear weapons?” http://bit.ly/VgE6I2