Poison Pill Threatens Iran Agreement

Blocking the heavy water amendment - An amendment by Senator Tom Cotton (R-AK) to the Energy and Water appropriations bill threatens to undermine the Iran nuclear agreement by blocking US purchases of heavy water from Iran. If passed, the amendment will likely be viewed by Iran as breaking the US commitment under the agreement to refrain from new nuclear sanctions. The Arms Control Association’s analysis of the Cotton amendment is here: http://bit.ly/1SvpEZI.

--Yesterday’s vote to end debate on the E&W bill failed 50 to 46, with four Democrats (Senators Joe Donnelly (D-IN), Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Robert Menendez (D-NJ)) crossing party lines and voting to move the bill forward. Another vote to end debate and move the bill forward may take place this afternoon. Presidential spokesmen have indicated the president will veto the final E&W bill, if it includes the “poison pill” amendment, to protect the Iran agreement. Seung Min Kim and Burgess Everett report the story here for Politico. http://politi.co/1QAnYbK

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard : Blocking heavy water sales only serves to undermine #IranDeal. It's a policy in search of a problem. http://bit.ly/1WRvfLC

Tweet - @jstreetdotorg: Reminder: #IranDeal blocked all four pathways for Iran to get a nuclear weapon, making the world safer.

North Korea missile test fails - “North Korea test-fired another intermediate-range ballistic missile early Thursday, South Korean military officials said, but the launch appears to have failed, for a second time in two weeks. The apparent failure would be embarrassing for Kim Jong Un’s regime ahead of next week’s much-anticipated Workers’ Party congress – if it chose to report it,” writes Anna Fifield for The Washington Post.

--“Some analysts – and the South Korean president, Park Geun-hye – say there is a reasonable chance that Kim could conduct a fifth nuclear test in the lead-up to the congress, which will open on May 6 and could be a platform for Kim to announce policy and personnel changes…. Thursday’s launch was also 'highly likely' a failure, officials said. Even so, analysts warn that even failed tests give North Korea’s rocket scientists opportunities to learn about weaknesses in their designs and iron out problems.” Full article here. http://wapo.st/1YVeCNQ

See also - “U.S. warns of 'other' options if North Korea continues nuclear, missile tests,” by Jack Kim and Lesley Wroughton for Reuters.http://reut.rs/1qOFHqJ

Understanding North Korea - “The failure of the United States to stop North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction programs has been spotlighted by a spurt of worrying developments, starting with Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test in January. Most recently, Pyongyang has successfully tested a large rocket motor… and launched a new sea-based rocket. There are even rumors that Pyongyang is preparing for a fifth nuclear test,” writes Joel Wit for Foreign Policy.

--“It would appear that Washington’s two decades of trying to stop this growing threat have been an unmitigated failure. But is that really true?... There is a comic-book version of that history — decades of appeasement and unrelenting failure — and a more sanguine view, which I hold, that there were times when U.S. policy actually worked. If Washington is ever going to figure out how to deal with this challenge in the future, it needs to understand this diplomatic history.” Full piece here. http://atfp.co/1NWBtm7

Pyongyang doubles down - “Pyongyang's insecurity has intensified even more under Kim, who, since coming to power in 2012, declared his father's bequest of a nuclear program as a crowning achievement, changed the constitution to declare North Korea a nuclear state, and declared nuclear and economic development as his twin priorities,” writes Scott Snyder for CNN.

--“The next U.S. administration is likely to see the North Korean threat as a more urgent priority because the North may indeed develop a long-range nuclear strike capability within the next four years… Such a development will enhance North Korea's leverage and demands for talks but will also generate greater pressure on the next U.S. President to consider decisive action.” Full piece here. http://cnn.it/1Tg2Byl

Video - Watch David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists explain the technology of the new nuclear arms race on Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/24mnob7

Facing new nuclear threats - “The threat of someone using a nuclear weapon is even greater now than it was during the Cold War, according to former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn and former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry…. ‘The thing I worry about a great deal is that we’re in a new era where states no longer have the monopoly on nuclear weapons or material or knowledge,’ ... The best defense against that reality is keeping nuclear materials out of their hands, Nunn said,” writes Lee Shearer for the Athens Banner-Herald.

--“It’s at least partly by luck that the Soviet Union and the United States never launched nuclear missiles at each other, said Perry, secretary of defense from 1994-97 under President Bill Clinton. The United States at least three times received false alarms when the military thought the Soviets had launched a nuclear attack, and ‘we know of at least two (false alarms) in the Soviet Union,’ he said.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1NAqe8b

Tweet - @ctbto_alerts: Leave a safer world, free of nuclear tests, to our children - #CTBT20 address by @UN #UNSG http://bit.ly/239nWyK

Quick Hits:

--“Ban the Bomb Tests,” by Des Browne, Daryl Kimball, and Kairat Umarov for Project Syndicate. http://bit.ly/1WSExqW

--“Graphic: Donald Trump’s Terrifying Views On Nuclear Weapons,” by Anna Perina for ThinkProgress. http://bit.ly/1SPU2QA

--“To Hiroshima (Cont.),” by Michael Krepon for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1VUNb9i

--“North Korea’s New Nuclear Sub Is Wickedly Unsafe,” by David Axe for The Daily Beast. http://thebea.st/1SB2VIe

--“The next Chernobyl may be intentional,” by Bennett Ramberg for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1NCOWVs

--“Feds seek dismissal of MOX lawsuit; Gov. Haley says $100M still owed to state,” by Derrek Asberry for The Post and Courier. http://bit.ly/1VV4FBU

--“UN chief urges nuclear test ban treaty ratification,” by the AP. http://wapo.st/1WsF0zw

--“Ground the blimp to nowhere,” by William Hartung for the Huffington Post. http://huff.to/245Qij1

Events:

--“Exploring a New Paradigm on the Korean Peninsula,” with 18 speakers. May 3 from 9:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Second Floor Conference Center, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. Register here. http://bit.ly/1Vu2XGa

--“U.S. Nuclear Policy Post-2016 Conference,” with 12 speakers. May 5 from 9:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1S8a4Tz

--“Chinese Nuclear Thinking: U.S. Perspectives,” with William Burns, Carnegie Endowment; Li Bin, Carnegie Endowment; Rose Gottemoeller, under secretary of state for Arms Control and International Security; Linton Brooks, CSIS; and Evan Medeiros, Carnegie Endowment. May 5 from 10:30 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. at the Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1SJl8c3

--“Dealing With — and Dissuading — Russia: Missile Defense and Arms Control in NATO and Eastern Europe,” with Rebeccah Heinrichs, Hudson Institute and Marshall Institute, and Steve Pifer, Brookings Institution. Part of the Huessy Congressional Breakfast Seminar Series. May 10 from 8:00 to 9:00 a.m. at the Capitol Hill Club, 300 First St. SE, Washington. Register online. http://conta.cc/25ULZFH

Dessert:

Beauty and the bomb - “The image of Miss Atomic Bomb is unforgettable, and it's one that has been absorbed into our pop culture lexicon, from Halloween costumes to a hit rock song to a dud of a musical. Yet there's very little known about Miss Atomic Bomb herself besides her stage name, Lee A. Merlin,” writes Matt Blitz for Popular Mechanics.

--“The iconic image of Miss Atomic Bomb dates to 1957… There was no official beauty pageant that granted her the title, though, which is one of the reasons that figuring out exactly who Merlin was and how she became the very embodiment of this weird period of Vegas history, this dichotomy between wanton destruction and carefree joy, has eluded more than one curious mind.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1QBaUCR