Nuclear Restraint and Achieving Lower Numbers

On the radar: Less is Better; Iran’s model graph; iTreaties; Eran and Guzansky; Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative; Last Resort sunk; and Using less plutonium in space.

November 28th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Report - “Less is Better: Nuclear Restraint at Low Numbers” by Malcolm Chalmers of RUSI.

--From the abstract: “While restraint at low numbers goes with the grain of thinking in most nuclear states, correct sequencing will be vital. Using the New START framework, attention could initially be focused on incremental decreases in US and Russian stocks of the most dangerous weapons. Thereafter, the other nuclear powers would need to take steps to limit the size and capabilities of their own arsenals in a process of mutual reductions.“ http://bit.ly/10VPN8g

Model graph - Researchers in Iran have electronically modeled a nuclear weapon, according a chart provided to the Associated Press by officials from a country concerned with Iran’s nuclear program. “The document, which plots power output along a timeline measured in microseconds, was one of several documents described in 2011 by the International Atomic Energy Agency as showing the ‘nuclear explosive yield’ of atomic armaments, according to one high-level envoy,” writes Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/V2JTMh

How it played - Headline: “Graph suggests Iran working on bomb” from AP. http://yhoo.it/RiHUrM

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More centrifuges, more conversion - Iran intends to expand its uranium enrichment capacity, said Iran’s nuclear chief Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani. In a possible move to help ease concerns, Abbasi also said Iran could raise its production of reactor fuel using converted 20% enriched uranium. Reuters has the details. http://reut.rs/TlmHt3

Tweet - @IISS_org: Sudden bump in #Iran #nuclear stockpile may be nothing but a technical issue, say analysts incl @FitzpatrickIISS http://reut.rs/UZHYKy

iPad App - Arms Treaties: “an indispensable quick reference guide on the nuclear weapons and missile arsenals and the treaties and agreements created to control them.”

--The app developer teamed up with the Arms Control Association to provide up-to-date factsheets on the world’s major arms control treaties and the countries that have WMD and missile capabilities. $4.99 from the App Store. lihttp://bit.ly/SdNVTHnk

Quote - “Israel should support the negotiations between Washington and Tehran. A belated Iranian compliance with the requirements of the international community is preferable to a premature war,” write former Israeli officials Oded Eran and Yoel Guzansky for Maariv. Translated article at Al Monitor. http://bit.ly/UZBX0s

Tweet - @Wellerstein: Fun fact: during the Trinity test, there was a military force of 160 men specifically to evacuate people from nearby towns if necessary.

Reducing roles - Ten diverse countries recently banded together under the name Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative to press other states to further diminish the roles and significance of nuclear weapons in security strategies. “At a time when the global nuclear order appears in flux and no single state or leader can reinvigorate it, the ten states of the NPDI [Australia, Canada, Chile, Germany, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Poland, Turkey and the UAE] have much to offer,” writes George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment.

--Recommendation: The NPDI “could accomplish much by pressing states to clarify the roles they assign to nuclear weapons today and exploring whether a common standard should be applied based on international law. The NPDI could diminish the status associated with nuclear weapons by mobilizing public opinion against irresponsible nuclear saber-rattling.” http://bit.ly/Stavrf

The next Israeli government - “Dan Meridor and Benny Begin, two of eight cabinet ministers who form Netanyahu's inner council, were trounced in an internal election by more hawkish members of the ruling Likud party,” reports Reuters. Both were known to oppose unilaterally attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities.

--Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “ is seen winning January's election, and his government is likely to move further to the right even if he puts together a new coalition with the left-leaning opposition.” Full article here. http://reut.rs/UrZg4t

IAEA hacked - A group of hackers posted stolen information from a former IAEA server on a hacker website yesterday. The information is not believed to include information related to confidential work the IAEA carries out. Reuters has the details. http://reut.rs/U2yiMr

Pakistan missile test - Pakistan successfully tested its Hatf-V, a medium-range nuclear-capable ballistic missile able of reaching targets up to 1,300 km away. Reuters has the story. http://reut.rs/Wv6wdB

Last of Last Resort - ABC’s nuclear drama “Last Resort,” a story about a rogue US ballistic missile sub, is getting cancelled. The show will finish out the season with a likely series finale. Navy Times has the story. http://bit.ly/VdQQQt

Space reactor - Scientists at NASA and Los Alamos are testing a prototype nuclear reactor engine that could one day power deep space exploration. The new engine would use uranium instead of the usual plutonium-238, helping space programs move away from using the fissile material. http://bit.ly/11b4L9w