Nonproliferation Budgets Decline as Warhead Budgets Boom

April 2, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Misaligned - “Last week, President Barack Obama claimed to be less worried about security threats from Russia than ‘the prospect of a nuclear weapon going off in Manhattan,’” writes Josh Harkinson for Mother Jones. “If that's the case, however, it isn't reflected in his latest military budget, which would boost funding for maintaining and developing atomic weapons while cutting back programs that help keep bomb-making materials out of the hands of terrorists.”

--“Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.), who sits on the House Appropriations Committee, said in a statement provided by his aides that, “It's troubling that for the third year in a row, the President's budget proposal funds nuclear weapons programs at the expense of virtually every nonproliferation effort. Maintaining our existing nuclear weapons stockpile is already unsustainable, and it makes little sense to increase investments in weapons that matter less and less for our national security.”

--“The administration’s 2015 budget proposal “reduces the National Nuclear Security Administration's $790 million in spending on nuclear nonproliferation programs by 20 percent, or $152 million. The cuts apply to NNSA programs that secure buildings containing fissile material, prevent the smuggling of radioactive material across borders, and convert nuclear reactors to use low-enriched uranium, which, unlike highly enriched uranium, cannot be used in nuclear warheads. At the same time, the Obama budget increases the NNSA's spending on nuclear weapons systems by nearly 6 percent, or $445 million. This includes a $100 million increase for the "life extension" of the B61 nuclear gravity bomb, a Cold War-era weapon stationed mostly around Europe that many arms experts call outdated and unnecessary.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1e8KKWo

Requirements for a comprehensive deal - A new paper from Robert Einhorn of Brookings, titled “Preventing a Nuclear-Armed Iran: Requirements for a Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement,” details key steps and requirements for an acceptable comprehensive agreement between the P5+1 and Iran. Read the full paper here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1lners0

Voiding the warranty - “The last thing you hear when leaving the dealership behind the wheel of your new car is the salesperson. She’s reminding you to bring it back to the dealership for repairs to ensure the proper spare parts are used to keep it running like new. You’d think the folks in charge of keeping the nation’s nuclear arsenal healthy would take the same approach. But they don’t.”

--“That’s because the “configuration management” (CM) requirements — an “exact list, by version, of the drawings, specifications, engineering authorizations, manufacturing records and any other essential documents used in the development and qualification of a nuclear-weapon system or component” — haven’t been met, according to a new report from the Department of Energy (DOE) inspector general’s office. The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) counts on those records to ensure its nuclear-warhead blueprints, and resulting upgrades, are correct. The failure to keep them that way has led to faulty parts being installed into the nation’s nuclear weapons. Compounding the problem is the fact that the nation’s nuclear-weapons blueprints are, well, falling apart.

--“NNSA has acknowledged the inspector general’s concerns and has “proposed and initiated corrective actions are responsive to our findings and recommendations,” the inspector general said. A big part of the problem is that the U.S. hasn’t built a new nuclear weapon since 1990. That’s pushing the nation to upgrade many existing ones, something that wasn’t generally considered when the weapons were built. It’s vital to have data on how those weapons were assembled, so their thousands of parts can be safely removed and upgraded. That’s also difficult to do when the blueprints are disintegrating.” Read the full story from Mark Thompson for Time here. http://ti.me/1jTGFx4

Documentation failure - “A U.S. Energy Department investigator has lashed nuclear-arms offices for failing to keep a detailed paper trail of how they build and care for each bomb,” writes Diane Barnes in Global Security Newswire. “The National Nuclear Security Administration has not consistently tracked each of the thousands of nuclear weapons under its charge with a comprehensive file of ‘drawings, specifications, engineering authorizations, manufacturing records’ and other documents from its assembly and maintenance, says a new report by the Energy Department's inspector general.”

--“The missing data exposes the U.S. nuclear arsenal to an array of unnecessary costs and risks, Gregory Friedman said his team had found. In one case, officials incorrectly approved two components to be added to a variant of the W-76 nuclear warhead. The error, they said, cost between $20 million and $25 million, and held up preparation of new parts by an extra 12 months.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1ihfRRU

Israeli perspectives - “The leader of Israel’s main opposition party said on Tuesday that he supports the United States and its international partners, the so-called P5+1, in their negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program and he criticized current Israeli government officials for publicly attacking the Obama administration on the Iranian issue,” reports Ben Armbruster for ThinkProgress. “‘I think the P5+1 are on top of it,’ Israel’s Labor Party leader Yizhak Herzog said in an exclusive interview with ThinkProgress. Herzog said he did not want to preempt the talks with Iran by laying out what he believed should be part of the final deal. ‘There’s a lot of question marks,’ he said. ‘I’ll leave it open.’”

--“During a panel discussion on the Iranian nuclear program at the joint CAP-Molad event, Shlomo Brom, of the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, also said it was a ‘big mistake’ for Netanyahu to criticize the interim nuclear deal with Iran. Brom, who is a retired Israeli Defense Forces brigadier general, said that Netanyahu opposes the first step deal because it ‘indicated that the final deal [Iran] will have the right to enrich uranium with some limitations.’ But, Brom added, anyone who thinks Iran won’t be allowed some kind of civilian enrichment capability with rigorous inspections as part of the final deal is ‘deluding themselves.’ A reasonable deal, he said, will be one that extends the amount of time it takes for Iran to build a nuclear weapon should it decide to do so.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1ln6q6i

New START Data - As of April 1, under data for the New START treaty, the U.S. had 1585 nuclear warheads deployed on 778 out of a total 952 strategic delivery vehicles. Russia had 1512 nuclear warheads deployed on 498 out of a total 906 strategic delivery vehicles. The State Dept. provides the aggregate numbers. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1i22SSI

Analysis - “The data shows that Russia increased its deployed launchers by 25 from 473 to 498, and the warheads attributed to those launchers increased by 112 from 1,400 to 1,512 compared with the previous count in September 2013,” writes Hans Kristensen in for the FAS Strategic Security Blog. “The increase of the Russian count does not indicate that its in increasing its strategic nuclear forces but reflects fluctuations in the number of launchers and their attributed warheads at the time of the count.”

--“Both countries are slowly reducing their strategic nuclear weapons to meet the New START treaty limit by 2018 of no more than 1,550 strategic warheads on 700 deployed launchers. Russia has been below the treaty warhead limit since 2012 and was below the launcher limit even before the treaty was signed. The United States has yet to reduce below the treaty limit.” Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1gObhwT

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: 4700 US nukes didnt save Crimea but increasing $ for ICBM AoA, LRSO development wld deter further Russia aggression?

Dismantlement cuts - “A spending cut may jeopardize a 2022 goal to eliminate nuclear warheads now slated for dismantlement,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The Obama administration's fiscal 2015 budget request would reduce spending on nuclear-arms dismantlement from a current enacted level of $54.3 million to $30 million in the coming funding cycle, according to the Saturday report. A planning paper says Washington will revamp its current strategy to scrap atomic arms that were retired from the arsenal prior to 2009.”

--“Stephen Young, an issue expert with the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the spending plan ‘claims that they can still achieve the 2022 goal, but only if there are significant future increases in funding for dismantling warheads.’" Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1gnSjbI

Assistance review - “The U.S. Energy Department's nuclear-security arm is reviewing its assistance to Russia amid continuing tensions with Moscow over Ukraine,” writes Rachel Oswald in Global Security Newswire. Full article here. http://bit.ly/1ih2AJh

Stuck in the middle - “The U.N. atomic agency has got caught up in the diplomatic crossfire over Crimea as Russia insists its agreements with the Vienna-based watchdog now also cover the annexed Black Sea peninsula, a confidential exchange showed on Friday,” writes Fredrik Dahl in Reuters “Ukraine, for its part, urged the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) ‘to avoid any actions’ which might be construed as recognition of Russia's annexation of the region… the U.N. agency issued a cautious statement telling Russia it would ‘continue to implement safeguards in accordance with the IAEA statute and international law.’” Full piece here. http://reut.rs/1dN8zZh

Nonproliferation verification - “The U.S. Energy Department has awarded a multimillion-dollar research grant to explore new technologies for verifying foreign nonproliferation commitments,” reports Rachel Oswald in Global Security Newswire. “A consortium of universities will use the $25 million grant by the department's National Nuclear Security Administration over the next half-decade to investigate, among other things, geophysical models for aiding in the confirmation of underground atomic explosions. Research will also look into methods for verifying that nations are not illicitly diverting nuclear materials toward weapons programs, according to an NNSA news release.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1jAwkDF

Increased spending - “The U.S. missile defense system could see additional costs and delays after several test failures and technical challenges in 2013,” according to a report by the Government Accountability Office. “The U.S. government has already spent $98 billion since 2002 to develop a complex, layered system to defend against enemy ballistic missile attacks, with an additional $38 billion to be spent through fiscal 2018.”

--“[Continued] problems with key aspects of the program, including the ground-based midcourse defense managed by Boeing Co, could drive the costs of U.S. missile defense system even higher in coming years, the GAO said. The report also faulted the U.S. Missile Defense Agency for what it called "unreliable" and incomplete cost estimates, and recommended steps to improve the agency's schedule baselines.” Andrea Shalal has the story in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1s7zqD9

--Full report: “MISSILE DEFENSE: Mixed Progress in Achieving Acquisition Goals and Improving Accountability” by the Government Accountability Office. April 2014. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1jAvkQ4

Clean-up demands - “Washington state accused the federal government Monday of missing crucial legal deadlines to clean up 56 million gallons of highly radioactive waste at the former Hanford nuclear weapons site in southeastern Washington, demanding a new set of schedules by April 15,” writes Ralph Vartabedian in the Los Angeles Times. “Gov. Jay Inslee and state Atty. Gen. Bob Ferguson sent a letter to Energy Secretary Ernest J. Moniz demanding that eight new double-shelled storage tanks be built to hold waste that is in leaky underground tanks with single steel walls. A state attorney said the eight tanks would cost $640 million, based on federal estimates. The aging tanks contain plutonium, cesium and other toxic material, the byproduct of decades of nuclear weapons production that represents a dangerous environmental threat.” Full article here. http://lat.ms/1fsOc1R

Leadership needed - “[Bolder] action and dedicated U.S. leadership in both the White House and Congress is needed to address the roots of [nuclear] security challenges that still remain,” write George Buskirk and Alexandra Toma in Roll Call. “Most problematically, there are no globally agreed-upon standards for securing weapons-usable nuclear material. Instead countries are left to their own devices and varying levels of initiative. Like a chain restaurant without a health code, this creates a self-policing scenario where quality and care varies and health risks abound. A legally binding agreement that defines effective standards and closes existing gaps would be a major step forward.”

--“Closer to home, Congress should support several key nonproliferation initiatives. Critically, Congress should promptly approve the 2005 Amendment to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials and the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism. These treaties expand legal protections against the loss or theft of these dangerous materials and their approval would be a notable step forward in efforts to guard against an act of nuclear terrorism,” Buskirk and Toma say. Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1dNcMfy

Quick-hits:

--“MOX Contractor Tells Employees Construction Work Not Changed” by Meg Mirshak in The Augusta Chronicle. http://bit.ly/1i23ZSt

--“China Sees ‘Imbalance’ in Japan’s Plutonium Plans, Despite Upcoming Cuts” by Sebastian Sprenger in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/OdjfEd

--“Red Team Reaches ‘Strong Consensus’ on Alternative Strategy for UPF” by Frank Munger in Atomic City Underground. http://bit.ly/1ec96hZ

Events:

--“Creating a Legacy for the Nuclear Security Summit.” Discussion with Kenneth Luongo and Sharon Squassoni. April 2 from 12:00-1:30 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2nd floor conference room A, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. RSVP by email to PPP@csis.org

--“Hearing on Ballistic Missile Defense Policies and Programs.” Hearing from the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces with Elaine Bunn, Michael Gilmore, Vice Adm. James Syring, and Cristina Chaplain. April 2 at 2:30. Webcast available from committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1gguXEV