New Stealth Bomber Cost Likely to Explode

December 9, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke, Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Strategic budget buster - “The U.S. Air Force’s new long-range bomber may cost as much as $81 billion for the 100 planes planned, 47 percent more than the $55 billion sticker price the service has listed,” reports Tony Capaccio for Bloomberg.

--“Aircraft programs, and stealth aircraft in particular, have gone far over their initial cost estimates...If you factor in historical cost growth, the total program cost could easily top $100 billion,” said analyst Todd Harrison.

--The Air Force requested $379 million for the bomber this year, ramping up quickly to spend $32.1 billion on the bomber through 2023. The program remains cloaked in secrecy and the Air Force has not provided a rationale for the budget increases. http://bloom.bg/1cwf5Qt

Unbelievably Pricy Facility - The cost of the proposed Uranium Processing Facility (UPF) in Tennessee could end up between $10 billion and $12 billion - with a potential scenario of $19 billion - according to new analysis from the Pentagon’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) office. The current official estimate puts the uranium plant at $6.5 billion for the first phase of the project.

--“We’ve already undergone severe cost escalation in the 2010, 2011 timeframe on UPF by a factor of two, and now they’re telling me it’s going to be another factor of two? Well, shut the door, we’re out of luck on uranium...We’ve got to figure out some way for that not to be the case,” said one former Administration official. Todd Jacobson at the Nuclear Weapons and Materials Monitor has the story. http://bit.ly/1bRNFGk

POTUS on Iran - “Ultimately, my goal as President of the United States -- something that I’ve said publicly and privately and shared everywhere I’ve gone -- is to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. But what I’ve also said is the best way for us to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapons is for a comprehensive, verifiable, diplomatic resolution, without taking any other options off the table if we fail to achieve that. It is important for us to test that proposition during the next six months,” said President Obama in a recent talk with Haim Saban.

--”And if at the end of six months it turns out that we can’t make a deal, we’re no worse off, and in fact we have greater leverage with the international community to continue to apply sanctions and even strengthen them. If, on the other hand, we’re able to get this deal done, then what we can achieve through a diplomatic resolution of this situation is, frankly, greater than what we could achieve with the other options that are available to us.” Haaretz has the full transcript. http://bit.ly/1ksIfAP

--Video of the Saban Forum discussion here. http://1.usa.gov/IB4usp

How it played - “Obama Says He Can Envision Nuclear Deal With Iran” by Michael Shear of The New York Times. http://reut.rs/ILVEYo

--“Obama Defends Iran Deal, Seeks to Assure Israel” by Jeff Mason of Reuters. http://reut.rs/ILVEYo

Rep. Price - “The P5+1 agreement does represent an opportunity – for negotiations toward a broader deal that decisively prevents Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and, if that is achieved, for a new era of relations between Iran and the West,” says Rep. David Price (D-NC) in an article for the Charlotte Observer.

--“There is no guarantee that the interim deal will lead to a final one... But if the negotiations succeed, it will be a diplomatic triumph on the scale of the Reagan-Gorbachev treaties, averting a deadly threat to global security without another costly war in the Middle East.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/19wfjCK

Petition - A new petition opposing new congressional sanctions against Iran is making its way around the internet. It reads, “President Obama has asked for, and deserves, the time and the political space necessary to negotiate a comprehensive, final deal with Iran… With diplomacy just beginning to work, now's not the time to ratchet up sanctions or tie the president’s hands, which will only sabotage our ability to negotiate with Iran and make war much more likely." Read the full petition here. http://bit.ly/19cexyu

Yikes - ”This Alarming Map Shows Dozens of Nuclear Materials Thefts and Losses Every Year.” By Max Fisher of The Washington Post.http://wapo.st/18ipKz1

BMD sale - The United States is set to sell missile defense equipment to members of the Gulf Cooperation Council in an effort to reassure allies around the Persian Gulf. “It isn't clear whether the Gulf Cooperation Council will be willing to purchase the missile defense sensors as a group under the deal being outlined Saturday by [Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel].” Julian Barnes reports for The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1iPTecb

Speed reads:

--”Exclusive: Iran’s Foreign Minister Says Sanctions Would Kill Nuclear Deal Read more: Exclusive: Iran’s Foreign Minister Says Sanctions Would Kill Nuclear Deal” by Robin Wright for TIME. http://ti.me/1bROSgP

--“With Iran, Obama Can End America’s Long War for the Middle East” by Andrew Bacevich in The Washington Post.http://wapo.st/1ksCwLi

--“Reasons for Optimism in Iran” By Jeffrey Goldberg of Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/IBatO9

--”The Case for Giving Iran's Scholar-Diplomats a Chance” by Moesés Naím for The Atlantic. http://bit.ly/1hIgGGJ

Arguing for the status quo - “The Future of America's Nuclear Deterrent” by Evan Braden Montgomery in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/J6A0zk

--Full report of the same title from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. http://bit.ly/1ckSK4Q

Events:

--”The Iranian Nuclear Deal: A New Direction for Tehran and the West?” Discussion with Bob Schieffer, Thomas Friedman, Robert Einhorn, and Zbigniew Brzezinski at Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dec. 9 from 5:30 to 6:30. RSVP details here. http://bit.ly/1ckYBXS

--”The Iran Nuclear Deal: Does It Further U.S. National Security?” Hearing with Sec. John Kerry before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. Dec. 10 @ 1:00pm. http://1.usa.gov/189IhgI

--”Making Sense of Nuclear Negotiations with Iran: A Good Deal or a Bad Deal?” Discussion with Alireza Nader, Daryl Kimball, and Paul Pillar at 2168 Rayburn House Office Building. Dec. 10 from 2:00-3:00. RSVP details here. http://bit.ly/18hj5jc

--”Avoiding Future Irans: A New Course for U.S. Nonproliferation Policy.” Discussion with Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Rep. Brad Sherman, Sen. Ed Markey (invited), Mark Wallace, Daryl Kimball, Kingston Reif, Christopher Paine, and Robert Zarate at B338 Rayburn House Office Building. Dec. 11 from 11:45-1:30. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1cUWprv

--”Understanding the Iran Nuclear Deal.” Online webinar with Reza Marashi. Dec. 11 from 3:30 to 4:30. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1bs2g8L

--”Critical Mass: Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East.” Discussion with Rep. Jim Cooper, Rep. Mac Thornberry, and Andrew Krepinevich at 2218 Rayburn House Office Building. Dec. 12 at 10:00. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1863IPJ

--”Key Policy Issues for U.S. Nuclear Cooperation.” Discussion with Rose Gottemoeller, Daniel Poneman, Thomas Moore, Mary Beth Nikitin, Miles Pomper (possible), Leonard Spector (possible), and Steve Rademaker at the Atlantic Council. Dec. 12 from 3:00-5:30pm. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1cUX6kw

--”New Nuclear Suppliers.” Discussion with Chris Gadomski and Gretchen Hund at Center for Strategic and International Studies, room 212-A/B, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Dec. 13 from 9:00 to 11:30. RSVP details here. link

--Deterrence Stability and Escalation Control in South Asia.” Discussion with Rose Gottemoeller, Robert Einhorn, Mansoor Ahmed, and Silakanta Mishra at Stimson. Dec. 13 from 11:30-2:00. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dLltq3

Dessert:

Physics lesson - The physics of airburst nuclear weapons are complicated when exact yield and blast height of the bomb are not known. For the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, planners sought to achieve a blast overpressure of 5 psi over the target area. However, the planners might have been much more conservative about the bombs’ yields. This resulted in significantly greater blast overpressure and radiation effects at ground zero for both cities. Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data has the (tedious) calculations. http://bit.ly/1jEacrR