Kissinger & Shultz on the Requirements for a Deal with Iran

December 3, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Lauren Mladenka

Former secretaries - “American diplomacy now has three major tasks: to define a level of Iranian nuclear capacity limited to plausible civilian uses and to achieve safeguards to ensure that this level is not exceeded; to leave open the possibility of a genuinely constructive relationship with Iran; and to design a Middle East policy adjusted to new circumstances,” write former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and George Shultz, outlining options they see for a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran.

--”If the six-month ‘freeze’ period secured in Geneva is to be something other than a tactical pause on Iran's march toward a military nuclear capability, Iran's technical ability to construct a nuclear weapon must be meaningfully curtailed in the next stipulated negotiation through a strategically significant reduction in the number of centrifuges, restrictions on its installation of advanced centrifuges, and a foreclosure of its route toward a plutonium-production capability. Activity must be limited to a plausible civilian program subject to comprehensive monitoring as required by the Non-Proliferation Treaty.”

--”Any final deal must ensure the world's ability to detect a move toward a nuclear breakout, lengthen the world's time to react, and underscore its determination to do so. The preservation of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime and the avoidance of a Middle East nuclear-arms race hang in the balance.” Full article in The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1bdn9Ez

Spoilers - The next six months with Iran “will give ample opportunity for spoilers on all sides to undermine trust, sabotage the process, and set the final status talks up for devastating failure,” writes Marc Lynch. To keep negotiations from breaking down, Washington and Tehran should “focus on maintaining forward momentum, defanging potential spoilers, and avoiding negative spirals of mistrust and frustrated hope. Both sides need to demonstrate that they can and will deliver on the letter and spirit of their agreements.”

--”Focusing on short-term bargaining advantage or domestic political posturing will likely rapidly derail hopes of building trust through cooperation. Public diplomacy aimed at building support for the process and heading off the predictable flashpoints should be given as much attention as the negotiations themselves.” Full post in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1cjmy5m

Quote - “The hard-liners are isolated right now in Iran, and we are, frankly, going to empower them if we show up with the table in the middle of these short-term negotiations with a new round of sanctions that even though they may take place in the future,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) yesterday. “This is about building confidence with the negotiators on the Iranian side but also the Iranian people.” Ben Armbruster of Think Progress has the quote. http://bit.ly/1cWByEn

Polling - “Americans have a favorable early impression of the Obama administration’s nuclear deal with Iran and feel strong skepticism toward the prospect of military action against the Islamic state,” writes Alexander Burns on a recent survey.

--With 63 percent in favor after hearing a description of the deal, the findings ”may bolster the case President Barack Obama and his allies will make to Congress, as they ask the legislature to hold off on placing new sanctions on Iran as the administration seeks to make the Iran deal work.” Full article at Politico. http://politi.co/19eNOxs

Pyongyang politics - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is believed to have sacked his uncle Jang Song Thaek, Vice Chairman of the National Defense Commission and department head of the ruling Workers’ Party. Analysts suggest the move could help Kim Jong Un consolidate power with a younger group of aides. jack Kim and Ju-min Park of Reuters have the story. http://reut.rs/1cjklqp

On-site video - “Getting ready for the largest-ever CTBT on-site inspection simulation.” New video from the CTBTO on its upcoming simulation in Jordan. http://bit.ly/1g2StKO

Future sanctions - “Despite repeated objections from the White House, Senate Democrats and Republicans are charging ahead with plans to pass new sanctions legislation against Iran,” reports John Hudson in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1jgUd2z

The other Mid-East nuclear question - “Is there something hypocritical about the world tolerating Israel's nuclear arsenal, which the country does not officially acknowledge but has been publicly known for decades, and yet punishing Iran with severe economic sanctions just for its suspected steps toward a weapons program?” questions Max Fisher in The Washington Post.

--”The dilemma for Israel is that, should Iran ever develop a nuclear warhead, Israel will surely feel less unsafe if it has its own nuclear deterrent. But, ironically, Israel's nuclear arsenal may itself be one of the factors driving Iran's program in the first place,” Fisher argues. And “at some point, for its own security, Israel will have to take the bombs out of the basement and put them on the negotiating table," notes Joe Cirincione. See the article here. http://wapo.st/1c9ectk

Other views on B61 - Recent pitches for the $11 billion program to upgrade the B61 nuclear bomb haven’t focused enough on the bomb’s strategic contributions, argues Bob Butterworth. He suggests that the bombs’ proposed lower yield, higher accuracy, and signaling capability are important reasons the bombs will be useful in a yet undefined strategy. Full argument in Breaking Defense. http://bit.ly/IJsslH

Events:

--”The Future of America’s Strategic Nuclear Deterrent.” Discussion with Evan Montgomery at SVC-215 Capitol Visitor Center. Dec. 5 at 10:00. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/18US48R

--”Making Sense of Nuclear Negotiations with Iran: A Good Deal or a Bad Deal?” Discussion with Alireza Nader, Daryl Kimball, and Paul Piller at 2168 Rayburn House Office Building. Dec. 10 from 2:00-3:00. RSVP by calling Kurt Card at (703) 413-1100 ext. 5259 or online. http://bit.ly/18hj5jc

--”Avoiding Future Irans: A New Course for U.S. Nonproliferation Policy.” Discussion with Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Rep. Brad Sherman, Sen. Ed Markey (invited), Mark Wallace, Daryl Kimball, Kingston Reif, Christopher Paine, and Robert Zarate at B338 Rayburn House Office Building. Dec. 11 from 11:45-1:30. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1cUWprv

--”Critical Mass: Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East.” Discussion with Rep. Jim Cooper, Rep. Mac Thornberry, and Andrew Krepinevich at 2218 Rayburn House Office Building. Dec. 12 at 10:00. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1863IPJ

--”Key Policy Issues for U.S. Nuclear Cooperation.” Discussion with Rose Gottemoeller, Daniel Poneman, Thomas Moore, Mary Beth Nikitin, Miles Pomper (possible), Leonard Spector (possible), and Steve Rademaker at the Atlantic Council. Dec. 12 from 3:00-5:30pm. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1cUX6kw

--Deterrence Stability and Escalation Control in South Asia.” Discussion with Rose Gottemoeller, Robert Einhorn, Mansoor Ahmed, and Silakanta Mishra at Stimson. Dec. 13 from 11:30-2:00. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dLltq3

Dessert:

00000000 - “For 15 Years, All That Stood Between U.S. and Nuclear War Were Eight Zeros” from Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/ICmu57