Kerry Offers Reality Check to Congress

Its about credibility - If Congress fails to approve the nuclear deal, “the results would be disastrous.” Secretary of State John Kerry told NPR Morning Edition host Steve Inskeep on Monday. “I'm telling you, the U.S. will have lost all credibility... And if we then decided to use military [after a deal fails], do you believe the United Nations will be with us? Do you think our European colleagues will support us? Not on your life."

--The deal's failure “will be a travesty, and Iran will begin enriching, claiming it is a right that they only gave up in the context of negotiations, but since negotiations are dead, they're going to resume their rights.” The Ayatollah will say, “I told you, you can't trust the West. I told you you can't negotiate with these guys… They have 535 secretaries of state. There's nobody to negotiate with." Full interview here. http://n.pr/1LpAEoF

--See also: “No alternative to Iran nuclear deal, Kerry says on Sunday talk shows,” by Carol Morello in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1Jbg3mg

Reality check - “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel calls it a ‘historic mistake’ that permits Iran ‘a sure path to nuclear weapons.’ A minister in his government, unable to resist outrageous hyperbole, calls it ‘one of the darkest days in world history.’ Jeb Bush, doing the tired Chamberlain-Obama number, dismisses it as ‘appeasement.’ So what do the critics, from Republican presidential hopefuls to the Israeli government, seek in place of the deal with Iran that verifiably blocks Tehran’s path to a nuclear weapon for at least the next 10 to 15 years?”

--“Presumably, they want what would have happened if negotiations had collapsed. That would be renewed war talk as an unconstrained Iran installs sophisticated centrifuges, its stockpile of enriched uranium grows, Russia and China abandon the sanctions regime, moderates in Iran like Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif are sidelined, and a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic draws closer. The Iran nuclear deal is not perfect… It must be judged on what it set out to do — stop Iran going nuclear.”

--“If implemented, the agreement constitutes the most remarkable American diplomatic achievement since the Dayton Accords put an end to the Bosnian war two decades ago. It increases the distance between Iran and a bomb as it reduces the distance between Iran and the world. It makes the Middle East less dangerous by forestalling proliferation. In a cacophonous age of short-termism, it offers a lesson of stubborn leadership in pursuit of a long-term goal.” Full piece from Richard Cohen for The New York Times here. http://nyti.ms/1OuuOAV

From those who would know - “I think it is a remarkably far-reaching and detailed agreement,” Hans Blix, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said in an interview with MSNBC on Monday. “I’ve seen how some people have said or alleged that Iran got everything – I simply don’t understand that attitude.”

--“Iran accepted that they would reduce the number of centrifuges to about five or six thousand; they will commit themselves to have no reprocessing… they commit themselves to rearrange the research reactor that they are building in Arak so that they it will be less prone or less convenient for plutonium production; they limit the stores and stocks they have of enriched uranium; and they agree not to reach to any higher level than 3.67% [enrichment].” Link to the edited interview here. http://on.msnbc.com/1TNJwpE

Cool your jets, Congress - “Secretary of State John Kerry had a blunt response Monday to U.S. lawmakers’ outcry over the United Nations Security Council’s unanimous endorsement of a resolution on the Iran deal: The rest of the world isn’t subject to the U.S. Congress.”

--“White House spokesman Josh Earnest said in response to the lawmakers’ [concerns], ‘It bears repeating that there is nothing that the United Nations Security Council can or will do to impact the sanctions that the United States has put in place, particularly those sanctions over which Congress has jurisdiction.” Read the full article from Molly O’Toole at Defense One here. http://bit.ly/1MgQmSo

Lack of alternatives - “There is no ideal world, and there are no ideal agreements,” says Ami Ayalon, a former director of Israel’s Shin Bet internal security service. The nuclear deal struck with Iran in Vienna is “the best possible alternative from Israel’s point of view, given the other available alternatives,” Ayalon said in a phone interview with J.J. Goldberg of Forward.

--“His views are worth listening to because they represent the mainstream of Israel’s security establishment.” A decorated commando and onetime commander of Israel’s navy, he’s often “staking out positions early on that other security chiefs are thinking but haven’t yet said.” He’s an excellent resource if you want to “find out what the mainstream Israeli defense professionals — in and out of uniform — are thinking right now.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1J9pa7d

Sigh of relief - “We have a deal. And many of us in the faith community are relieved,” writes Jim Wallis for Sojourners Magazine. Many of us have “called for diplomacy instead of the only plausible alternative: war with Iran. Other options simply aren’t possible.”

--“The other major world powers in the mix have made it clear they would not agree to harsher sanctions. Military strikes would only provoke more violence, terrorism, and war without solving the problem of Iran’s nuclear escalation. Iran’s nuclear weapons development would likely resume immediately without this deal, accelerated and entrenched by resulting military attacks on Iran.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1McrnQX

Long Read:

--“Tehran’s Promise: The revolution’s midlife crisis and the nuclear deal,” by Robin Wright for The New Yorker. http://nyr.kr/1I5QhuK

Quick Hits:

--“Why History Gives Obama the Benefit of the Doubt on Iran,” by James Fallows for The Atlantic. http://theatln.tc/1Igmx2J

--“Heading Off an Even Bigger Problem in Iran,” by Jeffrey Lewis for The Boston Globe. http://bit.ly/1JuBCKD

Events:

--“The Iran Nuclear Deal: Pitfalls and Promises,” featuring Olli Heinonen, Elizabeth Rosenberg, Robin Wright and Joe Cirincione. Wednesday, July 22nd from 9:00 - 10:00 AM at the Wilson Center, Reagan Building, 6th Floor, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave, NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1CNpUOg

--“Implications of the 2015 NPT Review Conference,” featuring Adam Scheinman, U.S. Ambassador to the NPT Review Conference. Thursday, July 23rd from 10:00 - 11:30 AM at National Defense University, Lincoln Hall, Room 1119, 300 5th Ave, SW, Fort McNair, Washington, DC. To RSVP email Nima Gerami at Nima.Gerami@ndu.edu.

--“Missile Defense, Arms Control and America’s Security,” featuring Frank Rose, Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification and Compliance. Friday, July 24th from 8:00 - 9:00 AM at the Capitol Hill Club, 300 1st Street, SE, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://conta.cc/1JepG3E

--“Russian Military Forum: The Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty at a Crossroads,” featuring Amy Woolf, Steven Pifer and Paul Schwartz. Monday, July 27th from 10:00 - 11:30 AM at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2nd Floor Conference Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave, NW, Washington, DC. To RSVP email rep@csis.org.