Iran Shuffling Its Negotiating Team

On the radar: Pragmatists taking over from hardliners; Syria chemical attacks; Blaming Russia; and the Longest-sought, hardest-fought arms control measure.

August 22, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Analyzing appointments - In a significant departure from tradition, Iran’s new foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, may lead the Iranian delegation in future nuclear talks. For the past “10 to 12 years, the negotiator has been the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.” American educated Zarif is different than his conservative predecessor, Saeed Jalili, who “was a personal emissary of the ayatollah’s,” reports Rick Gladstone at The New York Times. http://ow.ly/oaj8I

Comings and goings - Iranian envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to leave his post, but his replacement has not yet been announced. Full story at Reuters. http://ow.ly/oadKM

Tweet - @strobetalbott: Replacement of Iran's rep at Int'l Atomic Energy Commission is further sign that #Rohani is putting pragmatic team in place for nuke talks.

Unintended consequences - In an article last week, Sen. Mark Kirk and Rep. Eliot Engel argue “Without Stronger Sanctions, Iran Will Go Nuclear.” This assertion is misleading, argues Laicie Heeley. “Piling on further sanctions at this time is likely to have the opposite effect,” and could jeopardize the window of opportunity created by the election of Iran’s new president Hassan Rouhani.

--Now that sanctions have brought Iran to the table, its time to “capitalize on the leverage gained from these sanctions and secure a deal,” part of which must include “incentivizing good behavior,” writes Heeley in a response letter in The Wall Street Journal. http://ow.ly/oaejg

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Experts on Syria - News reports of the potential use of chemical weapons in Syria have generated deep concerns and many questions. The Bulletin is hosting an expert discussion on the situation and responses to it. Expert consensus: “A proper response will require verification of the chemical weapons used, and the people who used them.” Commentary from Larry Korb, Paul Walker, Margaret Kosal and Laura Kahn. http://bit.ly/16QOKeX

Redirecting frustrations - Russia gets a lot of blame from the American political class when it acts against U.S. interests or, more commonly, when Vladimir Putin tries to gain domestic support by poking the U.S. in the eye. This “blame Russia” reflex is partially a continued habit from the Cold War, but is also encouraged by the fact that Russia cannot impose costs on the U.S. or shape global affairs as it once could, argues Thomas Graham in The New York Times.

--Blaming Russia, while emotionally satisfying, “obscures the extent to which Americans create their own problems and shifts attention from what they can and should do to overcome them — whether it’s protecting national secrets from the likes of a Edward Snowden or developing and executing a consistent, intelligible policy toward Syria and Iran...In other words, the intensity of the criticism has less to do with Russia’s behavior than with the state of America’s progress in overcoming its own deficiencies,” writes Graham. http://nyti.ms/19LUatM

Banning tests - “Eisenhower wanted it; Kennedy almost got it; Clinton negotiated it; and now Obama can deliver it. It is the longest-sought, hardest-fought for goal in the history of nuclear arms control: a global ban on nuclear weapons tests,” writes Joe Cirincione on the history and national security benefits of the CTBT. At the Ploughshares Fund blog. http://bit.ly/1f4QwYU

System upgrades - The Pentagon is considering the expansion of the Air Force Technical Applications Center’s atomic monitoring system - technology that collects and assesses seismic, infrasonic and hydroacoustic data to detect nuclear tests. The modernization efforts are intended to “fine tune the current system”, which has produced false alarms in the past. Aliya Sternstein at Defense One has the full story. http://ow.ly/oam27

Speed read -

--”Are Boost Phase Defenses Making a Comeback at MDA?” by George Lewis at Mostly Missile Defense. http://bit.ly/185QL2j

--”Alleged Iranian Uranium Deal With Zimbabwe May Revive Sanctions Debate” by Diane Barnes of Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/15ddLyu

--”The most disingenuous argument for sanctions yet” by Jamal Abdi at The Hill. http://ow.ly/oapYO

Events:

-- “Extended Deterrence and Strategic Stability in Northeast Asia,” Brad Roberts. August 26, 9:00 AM @ Stimson Center. Details here. http://ow.ly/o3wNq

--”Guarding Against a Nuclear-Armed Iran: Proliferation Risks and Diplomatic Options.” Discussion with Amb. Thomas Pickering, David Albright, George Perkovich and Daryl Kimball. September 5th from 9:00am-10:30am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details and RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1dweZbK

--”The Path to Zero: The role of the United Nations in Nuclear Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.” September 5, 10:00 AM. Webcast here. http://webtv.un.org/

--President Obama attends the G-20 summit in St. Petersburg. September 5-6.