Iran Redesigning Reactor to Address Plutonium Concerns

June 12, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Arak progress - “Iran is ‘busy redesigning’ a planned research reactor to sharply cut its potential output of plutonium, a senior Iranian official said in comments that seemed to address a thorny issue in negotiations with big powers. The future of the Arak plant is among several sticking points that Iran and six world powers need to resolve if they are to reach a deal by late July on limiting Iran's controversial nuclear programme in exchange for an end to sanctions… Iran says the 40-megawatt Arak reactor is intended to produce isotopes for cancer and other medical treatments.”

--“The amount of plutonium the reactor will be able to yield will be reduced to less than 1 kg (2.2 pounds) a year from 9-10 kg (20-22 pounds) in its original design... Western experts say 9-10 kg is more than enough for one nuclear bomb. ‘We are currently busy redesigning that reactor to arrange for that alteration,’” said Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran’s atomic energy organization. Michelle Moghtader and Fredrik Dahl have the story in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1oXsPI9

Tweet - @MarkHibbsCEIP: If #Iran and powers run out of time in July, they have done advance homework to extend, I told @simonstu and @AFP http://bit.ly/TNY3YM

Video - “The Days After a Deal: Iran, Its Neighbors, and U.S. Policy Following a Nuclear Agreement.” April 3 RAND discussion available here. http://bit.ly/1xOdgbV

Consider not buying failed technologies - “The Pentagon would reassess its plans to put Raytheon Co's CE-2 kill vehicle on 14 more ground-based interceptors if a key test of the system designed to protect the United States from North Korean missile attacks fails again later this month,” reports Andrea Shalal for Reuters. “Missile Defense Agency Director Vice Admiral James Syring said the agency's highest near-term priority was a successful intercept test of the ground-based missile defense system run by Boeing Co, and the latest Raytheon-built kill vehicle, which has failed both intercept tests attempted to date.”

--“Senator Richard Durbin, who heads the Senate Appropriations Committee's defense subcommittee, asked Syring during a hearing on the agency's budget whether the contractors on the program were helping foot the estimated $1.3 billion cost of redesigning the kill vehicle after repeated test failures. Syring said the government had already docked Boeing's award and incentive fees, and had structured its latest contract with the company so it could ‘go back retroactively’ and recoup earlier fees in the event of another failure. No details were provided on the extent of the fees lost by Boeing.” Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1ohjU8A

DoD forgot 2 legs of the triad - “Over the next decade, maintaining and modernizing nuclear weapon capabilities will cost $263.8 billion, according to a joint estimate by the departments of Defense and Energy. But a new report suggests that figure might fall far short of what the United States will actually spend. The Government Accountability Office noted that the estimate doesn’t include the Air Force’s plans to develop a new bomber, or modernize intercontinental ballistic missiles.”

--“But the GAO said the Pentagon should’ve supplied at least a range of possible estimates for the new bomber and ICBM modernization, rather than an assumption of no cost at all: ‘Without a range of potential estimates and fully documented assumptions and limitations, the report is an incomplete tool for congressional oversight.’” Read the full piece by Tim Starks in Roll Call. http://bit.ly/SQbZRc

Sharing the burden - “A defense bill approved by a House panel on Tuesday contains language that seeks to spotlight the costs of nuclear burden-sharing within NATO,” writes Rachel Oswald in Global Security Newswire. A measure contained in the House Appropriations Committee's annual military spending bill introduced by Rep. Mike Quigley (D-IL) “would require the Pentagon to issue a report outlining ‘the proportional contributions of NATO members to the cost of sustaining forward-deployed nuclear weapons’ as well as the impact that proportional cost-sharing would have on the U.S. military's budget.”

--“The United States presently shoulders the vast majority of the expense -- about $100 million annually -- for the operational deployment of less than 200 B-61 gravity bombs in Europe. The nonstrategic weapons are broadly understood to be fielded in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. Those five nations in turn are supposed to maintain the aircraft capability necessary to deliver the nuclear bombs in an attack. The host states additionally pay for facility and security costs at the military installations where the weapons are stored. However, none of the other 22 member countries of NATO are understood to contribute directly to the tactical-arms mission, according to Hans Kristensen, who directs the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1pMyF0A

Tweet - @IranPrimer: Key takeaways from panel on US-#Iran tensions over timetables and terms of potential #nuclear deal @TheWilsonCenter http://bit.ly/1qA93ns

Chinese nuclear force adjustments - “The Pentagon’s latest annual report to Congress on the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China describes continued broad modernization and growing reach of Chinese military forces and strategy,” writes Hans M. Kristensen in a piece for the Federation of American Scientists. “There is little new on the nuclear weapons front in the 2014 update, however, which describes slow development of previously reported weapons programs. This includes construction of a handful of ballistic missile submarines; the first of which the DOD predicts will begin to sail on deterrent patrols later this year.”

--“Like all the other nuclear-armed states, China is modernizing its nuclear forces. China earns the dubious medal (although not in the DOD report) of being the only nuclear weapons state party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that is increasing it nuclear arsenal. Far from a build-up, however, the modernization is a modest increase focused on ensuring the survivability of a secure retaliatory strike capability.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1liXyjO

Explosive waste - “Chemicals tied to a burst nuclear-waste drum suggest five barrels in Texas face an elevated risk of exploding,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The drums held in Andrews, Texas, are known to contain acid levels matching those found in escaped contaminants at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico, according to Tuesday remarks from Ryan Flynn, the state's top environment official. Radioactive materials spread through the facility's underground corridors in February, spreading contamination to nearly two dozen workers and bringing normal site operations to a halt.”

--“Authorities previously suggested that over 100 waste containers at the Texas facility are in danger of bursting. The site's private operator has said the drums have been moved into additional packaging and placed under around-the-clock surveillance… In Washington, the House Energy and Water Appropriations Subcommittee on Tuesday signed off on $120 million in supplementary funds for recovery operations at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/SCD0qV

Unimaginable disaster - “While only two nuclear weapons have been used in war so far – at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II – and nuclear stockpiles are down from the peak they reached in the Cold War, it is a mistake to think that nuclear war is impossible. In fact, it might not be improbable,” writes Anders Sandberg in The Washington Post. “A full-scale nuclear war between major powers would kill hundreds of millions of people directly or through the near aftermath – an unimaginable disaster. But that is not enough to make it an existential risk.”

--“The real threat is nuclear winter – that is, soot lofted into the stratosphere causing a multi-year cooling and drying of the world. Modern climate simulations show that it could preclude agriculture across much of the world for years. If this scenario occurs, billions would starve, leaving only scattered survivors that might be picked off by other threats such as disease. The main uncertainty is how the soot would behave: depending on the kind of soot the outcomes may be very different, and we currently have no good way of estimating this.” Full article here. http://wapo.st/1pnUg1u

Quick-hits:

--“South Korea, U.S. Plan New Atomic-Trade Meeting” in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1oXnOQ4

--“Q&A: Dutch Official Doubtful of New Plutonium Agreement at 2016 Summit” by Douglas Guarino in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1v3IxVU

--“Federal auditors say Obama administration underestimates nuclear weapon costs” by Jeffrey Smith for The Center for Public Integrity. http://bit.ly/1oShWJB

Events:

--“War With Iran? Should the United States Use Military Force Against Iran if Nuclear Diplomacy Fails?” Debate with Georgetown University and University of Michigan students; comments by Colin Kahl. June 13 from 9:00-12:00 at the Willard Intercontinental Hotel, The Willard Room, 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1gXWlOJ

--“Ukraine, Deterrence in the 21st Century, and the Nuclear Weapons Budget.” Discussion with Mieke Eoyang, Benjamin Friedman, and Pete Sepp. June 16 at 10:00am at 340 Cannon House Office Building. RSVP by email to erosenkranz@pogo.org

--“India’s Nuclear Policy and Regional Stability.” Discussion with Michael Krepon, Lt. Gen. Vinay Shankar (ret.), Vice Adm. A.K. Singh (ret.), Joshua White, Vikram Singh, and Jayant Prasad. June 16 from 12:30 to 3:00 at the Stimson Center, 1111 19th St. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1s0k0Db

--“How to Unwind Iran Nuclear Sanctions.” Discussion with Kenneth Katzman and Cornelius Adebahr; moderated by Barbara Slavin. June 16 at 2:00 at The Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor (West Tower). RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1h9DpN2