Iran Nuclear Deal to Take Effect

Implementation - “Iran will begin eliminating its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in eight days' time, after negotiators in Geneva reached an agreement on how to implement the interim nuclear deal reached in November,” writes Paul Lewis for The Guardian. “The six-month deal, under which Iran has agreed to freeze and even curb some nuclear activities in return for an easing of sanctions, will come into force on 20 January.

--“November's agreement provides limited sanctions relief to Iran – which, according to US estimates, will provide a $7bn boost to the country's economy. In return, Iran has agreed to freeze its nuclear programme, destroy stockpiles of higher-grade uranium and commit to more rigorous inspections… world powers will also suspend some petrochemical and auto sanctions on 20 January. However, the bulk of relief will be in the shape of $4.2bn in restricted Iranian assets that will be repatriated to Tehran in regular instalments throughout the six months until the deal concludes in July.” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1j2QHKF

How it played - “Iran Nuclear Deal Takes Big Step Forward” by Anne Gearan for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/KSsGrb

Admin briefing - “Background Briefing on the Implementation Plan of the P5+1 and Iran's First Step Nuclear Agreement” from the State Department. http://1.usa.gov/1ky0qdD

Sanctions relief to start - “Iran agreed to curtail its nuclear activities starting Jan. 20 under a deal with world powers, triggering the easing of some sanctions and the start of a six-to-12 month timetable to reach a permanent accord,” writes Terry Atlas for Bloomberg. “The agreement restricts Iran’s nuclear activities and imposes more intrusive inspections. In return, Iran will benefit from sanctions relief, which the U.S. values at $6 billion to $7 billion over six months.” Full story here. http://bloom.bg/1eOchNT

First step and veto threat - “I welcome this important step forward, and we will now focus on the critical work of pursuing a comprehensive resolution that addresses our concerns over Iran’s nuclear program. I have no illusions about how hard it will be to achieve this objective, but for the sake of our national security and the peace and security of the world, now is the time to give diplomacy a chance to succeed,” said President Obama on the implementation of the interim deal with Iran.

--“Unprecedented sanctions and tough diplomacy helped to bring Iran to the negotiating table, and I’m grateful to our partners in Congress who share our goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Imposing additional sanctions now will only risk derailing our efforts to resolve this issue peacefully, and I will veto any legislation enacting new sanctions during the negotiation.” Full statement here. http://1.usa.gov/KezH4X

IAEA needs more eyes, ears - “The U.N. atomic watchdog is considering increasing its presence in Iran to better handle an extra workload in verifying Tehran is carrying out a deal with world powers to curb its nuclear program,” reports Fredrik Dahl in a piece for Reuters. “Facing an expanded role as a result of the November 24 accord, the International Atomic Energy Agency is likely to need more inspectors in Iran and is also examining whether to set up a small, temporary office there.” Full report here. http://reut.rs/1m2TOzr

About that sanctions bill - “S.1881, the ‘Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2013,’ will undercut President Obama’s efforts to obtain a comprehensive solution to Iran’s nuclear activities. To the extent that it removes the diplomatic option, moreover, it will leave the United States closer to a Hobson’s choice between going to war with Iran and accepting Iran as an eventual nuclear weapons state,” writes former Senate aide Ed Levine in an analysis of the new Iran sanctions bill in the Senate. Read the section-by-section legislative analysis from the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation. http://bit.ly/1d0ZeFM

Delicate position - “The biggest threat to the negotiations at this beginning phase is coming from the U.S. Senate, where a bill is under consideration that would undermine the negotiations before they even begin and leave the U.S. with a stark choice: military action or living with a nuclear Iran. A military strike would not eliminate Iran's nuclear capacity and could result in the very thing the U.S. hopes to prevent: Iran deciding to build nuclear weapons,” write Thomas Pickering and Jim Walsh in The Denver Post.

--Iranian leaders will likely view further sanctions “as a violation of the agreement and harden their negotiating position — or leave the table entirely. The Senate's smartest move is not to bring this bill to a vote until it is really needed.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/Kf5B1c

More talks in February - “World powers and Iran will very likely meet again on Tehran's nuclear ambitions in February, shortly after a six-month deal restricting its atomic work goes into effect,” reports Justyna Pawlak for Reuters. “The new round of talks will aim for a broad settlement in the decade-old dispute over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program that could ease the risk of mistrust leading to deeper tensions or even conflict in the Middle East.” Full report here. http://reut.rs/1lV2gnf

Spoiler alert - “In nuclear negotiations, as in medicine, the first principle is: ‘Do no harm.’ Yet a bill sponsored by about 60 senators, including Robert Menendez and Cory Booker of New Jersey and Bob Casey and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, threatens to pull the plug on the patient just as the Iran nuclear negotiations are entering their most delicate phase,” writes Greg Thielmann for The Philadelphia Inquirer.

--“Demanding that Iran permanently halt all uranium enrichment - even for peaceful purposes - is unrealistic. Such a deal would be unsustainable politically inside Iran. It would spell the end of outreach efforts by President Hassan Rouhani, dooming prospects for a negotiated agreement and greatly increasing the chance of both war and an Iranian nuclear arsenal.” Therefore, “Senators should stop trying to reopen deals that have already been struck and demanding the impossible for deals yet to be made.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/JV7bpm

Creeping partisanship - “The completion of technical talks to implement the Joint Plan of Action negotiated by Iran and the P5+1…underscores the falsity of assertions that legislation imposing still more sanctions is somehow needed to keep the Iranians negotiating seriously,” writes Paul Pillar in a piece for The National Interest. “It should be all the more clear that the current bill introduced by Senators Mark Kirk and Robert Menendez—which, in providing for still more sanctions, also threatens war and imposes unmeetable demands for a final agreement with Iran—is all about torpedoing the negotiations, not facilitating them.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1a2r5Lo

British view - “The West should not push Iran too far in talks over the Islamic republic's nuclear ambitions because failing to get a deal could bolster hardliners in Tehran, a former British foreign minister warned on Friday.” Read the full story from Reuters here. http://yhoo.it/1gAuUpz

Danger of nukes - “There is a danger that political leaders and the public will draw the wrong lesson from the history of nuclear accidents, concluding that catastrophe can be avoided with the right arsenal structure, rigorous procedures, and clever technical solutions,” writes Pavel Podvig for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. After all, the nuclear powers managed to muddle through the very dangerous Cold War times. But these conclusions would be mistaken. It appears that the only way to make nuclear weapons safe and secure is not to have them at all.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1lVd4Sl

Fix it, don’t expand it - “Congress voted in December to drop a controversial proposal to build a new missile defense interceptor site on the U.S. East Coast, agreeing instead to spend more to fix problems with the existing system, which has failed in its last three intercept tests,” writes Tom Collina. The new measure, included in the final FY14 defense authorization bill, would authorize $190 million in attempt to fix the existing GMD system, instead of spending $140 million to expand it. Full analysis at the Arms Control Association. http://bit.ly/1eA9uHz

Nuclear crash - “The storm-driven crash of a nuclear bomber in western Maryland in 1964 made an indelible impact on the Cold War program that put the crew and public at risk,” reports the Associated Press. “The Maryland accident, after nearly three crash-free years, underscored the folly of trying to keep nuclear bombers aloft at all times, regardless of the weather.”

--“It was probably the worst crash with nuclear weapons on American soil, and it was truly an accident — a weather-caused aircraft accident,” said an expert researcher on the event. “I think it pointed out that the risks were awful high, really too high.” Moreover, the incident underscored the nation’s poor preparedness to deal with such an accident as “it took the Air Force days to recover the bombs from the remote crash site, using equipment supplied by a local quarry operator.” http://wapo.st/JVdauC

China & North Korea - ”Why Does China Coddle North Korea?” by Jonathan Pollack for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/JVlaf5

Events:

--”A Report from Inside Iran.” Discussion with Robin Wright. Jan. 13th from 2:00-3:00 at SVC 203-02 Capitol Visitor Center. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dpM635

--Joseph Cirincione, Ploughshares Fund, book discussion of Nuclear Nightmares: Securing the World Before It Is Too Late. Jan. 14th from 7:30-8:30 at Town Hall Seattle, 1119 Eighth Ave., Seattle. More information here. http://bit.ly/1kxQwsH

--”Benefit or Burden? The Future of U.S. Tactical Nuclear Weapons.” Discussion with Rep. Jim Cooper, Gen. Norton Schwartz, and Amb. Richard Burt. Jan. 16th from 1:00-2:30 at 2456 Rayburn House Office Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1eA5nez

--”What Will 2014 Bring for North Korea’s Nuclear Program?” Discussion with James Schoff, Toby Dalton, Go Myong-Hyun, Choi Kang, Park Jiyoung, and Shin Chang-Hoon. Jan. 21st from 9:00-12:00 at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1lIxXQo

--”Making Sense of Nuclear Negotiations with Iran: A Good Deal or a Bad Deal?” Discussion with Alireza Nader, Daryl Kimball and Paul Pillar. Jan. 22nd from 10:00-11:00am at 2168 Rayburn House Office Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/19Th8zR