Iran Negotiations: Narrowing in on Enrichment Capacity

July 9, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka

SWUs a focal point - Negotiators in Vienna “are starting to change the terms they use to measure the country’s uranium industry, a move that could support a long-term deal,” writes Jonathan Tirone in Bloomberg. “Reaching an accord hinges on adopting the standard nuclear-industry measures for uranium enrichment capacity -- Separative Work Units, or, SWUs -- rather than counting centrifuge machines, Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization chief Ali Akbar Salehi said today in Tehran.”

--“The fact that he’s using the term is welcome because it introduces the standard technical measure into the debate,” said European Council on Foreign Relations fellow Ellie Geranmayeh. “Negotiators still need to be wary of ‘boxing themselves in’ by airing numbers in public.”

--“The shift follows Russia’s announcement that representatives from the state-owned Rosatom Corp. would join this week’s talks.” Iran is seeking the “ability to generate fuel for its Russian-built nuclear reactor in case supplies are disrupted,” says Tirone. “In addition to providing ready-made fuel, companies like Rosatom, Areva and Urenco sell their enrichment services.” Read the full article here. http://bloom.bg/VXLn2U

Public positioning - "Their aim is that we accept a capacity of 10,000 separative work units (SWUs), which is equivalent to 10,000 centrifuges of the older type that we already have. Our officials say we need 190,000 SWU. Perhaps this is not a need this year or in two years or five years, but this is the country's absolute need," said Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in a statement on Monday. Michelle Moghtader and Fredrik Dahl have the story for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1mzgn2q

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: How the #IranTalksVienna can meet "The Iranian Uranium-Enrichment Challenge" http://t.co/jLZOBCwRwx

Tweet - @rezamarashi: Key brief by @jabdi & @TylerCullis. - "Nuclear-Related or Not? #Sanctions Relief under a Final Nuclear Deal w/ #Iran”http://bit.ly/1rSxVdj

Fantasyland - “‘Unsustainable.’ That’s the Navy’s own official assessment of the spending rates required to keep the fleet large and modern enough to do its missions. For the service to state this in writing ratchets up not just the rhetoric but the likelihood of future budget battles in the Pentagon and on the Hill — especially over the immensely expensive program to replace aging Ohio-class nuclear missile submarines (SSBNs), which the Navy desperately wants someone else to pay for,” writes Sydney Freedberg for Breaking Defense.

--“Every year, the Navy publishes a 30-year shipbuilding plan. Every year, both partisan and neutral observers deride it as fiscally unrealistic: ‘The way you fund the shipbuilding plan is fantasyland,’” House seapower subcommittee chairman Randy Forbes once said. In particular, the new report says that “the DON can only afford the SSBN procurement costs with significant increases in our top-line or by having the SSBN funded from sources that do not result in any reductions to the DON’s resourcing level.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1rSAOej

Positive results - The U.S. has seen some significant foreign policy gains lately, with chemical weapons leaving Syria, Putin walking back tensions in eastern Ukraine and productive negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. “What do these have in common? They were achieved without a single American bomb being dropped and they relied on a combination of diplomacy, economic sanctions and the coercive threat of military force,” writes Michael Cohen for The New York Times.

--It’s too soon to declare victory here. “But the results with Syria, Russia and Iran remind us that when American foreign policy is led by painstaking diplomacy, seeks multilateral consensus and acts with an understanding of its own limitations, it can produce positive results.” Full article here. http://nyti.ms/VKF5mG

Moving on up - Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, the National Security Council’s top nuclear proliferation and defense policy official, will be nominated as Deputy Secretary for the Department of Energy.

--“If confirmed by the Senate for the No. 2 job at the Department of Energy, which has been held for five years by Daniel Poneman, Ms. Sherwood-Randall would join the department at a moment when it is remaking the nation’s nuclear weapons complex and figuring out the delicate politics of the boom in oil and gas fracking. She would oversee the nuclear complex and a multibillion-dollar program to overhaul the nation’s nuclear laboratories as well as its program to update a modestly shrunken arsenal of nuclear weapons.” Full story from David Sanger in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/VKg6Qt

Tweet - @CNASdc: "Why policy makers worry more about nuclear blackmail than political scientists do." @ColinKahl on Monkey Cage: http://bit.ly/1k5yMQm

Coming clean - “The Anglo-American role in unseating Mr. Mossadegh and reinstalling Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s dictator is the worst-kept secret of the Cold War,” writes Roham Alvandi in The New York Times. “Yet, both Britain and the United States continue to hamper efforts by historians to uncover the full story of the 1953 coup.”

--With nothing to lose, coming clean on the United States’ role in the coup is necessary to usher in a new chapter of American-Iranian relations, Alvandi says. If the forthcoming release of the State Department’s Foreign Relations of the United States series (FRUS) volume on the Eisenhower administration and Mr. Mossadegh “provides a thorough, accurate and reliable record of Anglo-American meddling in Iran’s internal affairs, then it may allow Mr. Obama to finally move beyond the sordid past and get on with making history.” Full article here. http://nyti.ms/1oBE5JR

Test-fire - Russia has successfully tested its new S-500 interceptor late last month, Global Security Newswire reports. The system “is designed to counter long-range ballistic missile threats and is a more capable version of the current S-400 system. The S-500 is designed to detect and counter as many as 10 ballistic threats at once, as well as cruise missiles and hostile aircraft.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1sx6J1p

Tough gig - “On both counts - the possibility of firing weapons that could kill millions, and the subterranean confinement - a missileer lives with pressures few others know,” writes Robert Burns for the AP. “It’s not active combat, although the Air Force calls them combat crew members. Yet no one can exclude the possibility, remote as it may be, that one day a president will deliver the gut-wrenching order that would compel a missileer to unleash nuclear hell.”

--“Absolutely, it weighs on your mind,” said 1st Lt. Andy Parthum, who spends his workday 60 feet below ground awaiting the order he hopes never arrives. With the enormous responsibility and the cost of mistakes potentially colossal, the Air Force has established rules, procedures and backup safety systems to minimize the chance of a major error. But with “the passing of the Cold War, the Air Force lost focus on its nuclear mission. It also lost a good deal of what remained of the allure of serving as a missileer.”

--“I think the high level of micromanagement by the leadership has contributed to the recent challenges the ICBM world has had,” said Brian Weeden, who served as a missileer at Malmstrom AFB from 2000-04. “When individuals’ slightest actions are scrutinized or controlled by others, that reduces the level of responsibility they feel and can lead to not caring.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1qjAUHY

Quick-hits:

--“The Untold Story of China’s Forgotten Underground Nuclear Reactor” by Jeffrey Lewis in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1vYbn8H

--“What new academic research can teach us about nuclear weapons” by Francis Gavin in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1xRVPX1

--“Why Washington Needs a New North Korea Strategy” by Doug Bandow in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1xRWisj

--“U.S., China Begin Strategic Talks on North Korea Nukes” in Defense One. http://bit.ly/1pZoHMI

Events:

--“The Future of International Civilian Nuclear Cooperation.” House Foreign Affairs Committee Hearing with Henry Sokolski, Daniel Lipman, and Leonard Spector. July 10 at 9:45 at 2172 Rayburn House Office Building. Webcast on committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1kl9XQe

--2014 National Public Opinion Survey of Iranian Americans Findings. Briefing and discussion with Alireza Nader, Barbara Slavin, and Alex Vatanka. July 10 from 12:00-1:30 at H-137, The Capitol. RSVP by email to Adrienne Varkiani at adrienne@paaia.org or (202) 828-8370

--“Generation Prague: Innovation in International Security.” Annual Conference with Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), Sigrid Kaag, Frank Klotz, Rose Gottemoeller, Tom Countryman, Andrew Weber, and other. July 10 at the U.S. Department of State, East Auditorium, George Marshall Conference Center. More information and RSVP here. http://1.usa.gov/1nPgROR

--“Nuclear Centers of Excellence in Asia: Next Steps.” Discussion with Kazunori Hirao, Laura Holgate, and 11 other speakers. July 18 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 212-A/B Conference Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. RSVP by email to Robert Kim at rkim@csis.org