The Iran Deal: Obstacles, Opportunities, and Outside Perspectives

Congress' role - “The agreement with Iran, if one is finally reached, will not be the end, but a beginning. It must be strong and carefully framed and minutely monitored, but it need not be watertight in order for it to ultimately open the way to a permanently nonnuclear Iran,” writes Jessica Mathews in an analysis of the framework for the New York Review of Books.

--Key recommendation: “Congress should have a full opportunity to assess the agreement, which can only be done after negotiations are completed. Chairman Corker should underline the leadership position he took in not signing the Cotton letter by postponing a vote on this bill until early July and adjusting its language accordingly.”

--“If Congress takes steps to reject the nuclear deal before it is completed, or if it undermines US negotiators by raising further doubts in Tehran that Washington will ever meet its commitments to lift sanctions, it will have done significant long-term damage to US power in ways that no amount of military strength can offset.” http://bit.ly/1CovLCE

Assessing the deal - “In their final days of high-pressure, non-stop negotiations in Lausanne, the parties did more than just salvage a negotiating process teetering on the brink of failure. They produced a surprisingly complete and detailed framework that provides a promising foundation for working out the details of a comprehensive agreement.,” writes Bob Einhorn of Brookings.

--Einhorn lays out the issues that are unresolved or need clarity. He concludes, “Still, on the basis of the Lausanne outcome, the negotiators deserve to have the time and space to continue their efforts, without outside interference, to find out whether a sound agreement is achievable.” http://brook.gs/1JooTe2

Infographic - Want to know the basics of the framework agreement? Win Without War has a handy infographic available here for viewing and sharing. http://bit.ly/1ydcJ6V

Polling the deal - A new poll from Reuters/Ipsos shows Republicans evenly split on support and opposition to the recent Iran deal. Democrats support the deal 5-1. See the Reuters writeup of the poll here. http://reut.rs/1Dkd8Vc

--See the full poll here: http://bit.ly/1IsFGz3

RAND Q&A - RAND experts take on commonly asked questions on the Iran framework agreement. Key quotes:

--Alireza Nader: “I consider this to be a breakthrough, but it is not a final deal. There could be potential obstacles in the future, including opposition from Iranian conservatives and the U.S. Congress.”

--Larry Hanauer: “The only reason to pass [the Corker review bill and Kirk sanctions bill] — or even to hold these debates — before a deal is finalized is to derail the negotiations and prevent a deal from being reached.”

--Dalia Dassa Kaye: “Successive administrations, Republican and Democratic, have tried to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran through diplomatic channels, and this agreement might be the best chance yet of doing that.” http://bit.ly/1NONMjS

Europe backs the deal - “It is nearly certain that, assuming a final agreement with Iran is reached in June, Europe's backing for it will be unanimous -- or close to it -- and that it will be eager to support Obama in his battle with opponents of the deal at home,” writes former Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt.

--”The framework agreement has vindicated Europe's approach to resolving the nuclear dispute. The West has every reason to maintain that approach in the months ahead.” Full article at The Huffington Post. http://huff.to/1aKfBxL

List of demands - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is tossing up arguments to try and kill a nuclear agreement with Iran. “The new demands are unrealistic and, if pursued, would not mean a better deal but no deal at all,” writes The New York Times in an editorial.

--“Getting to a final deal won’t be easy. Mr. Obama must continue to be tough and determined in the coming months of negotiations. Israel’s demands, however, must not become an excuse to scuttle what seems to be a very serious and potentially groundbreaking deal.” Full editorial here. http://nyti.ms/1JoqikU

New Nork warhead? - After much speculation about North Korea’s ability to miniaturize nuclear warheads, Adm. William Gortney, head of U.S. Northern Command, told reports that “Our assessment is that they have the ability to put a nuclear weapon on a KN-08 and shoot it at the homeland.” Story in Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/1FlGPlN

--For technical analysis of North Korea’s missile and warhead capabilities, see here: “The Future of North Korean Nuclear Delivery Systems” by John Schilling and Henry Kan of 38 North. http://bit.ly/1CuM40p

Listen up:

--”What Would A Nuclear Deal With Iran Really Mean?” Interview with William Burns, former members of the U.S. negotiating team with Iran, and NPR’s Steve Inskeep on Morning Edition. http://n.pr/1IsGGTY

--”The Framework Nuclear Agreement with Iran.” New Arms Control Wonk Podcast with Jeffrey Lewis, Aaron Stein and Vox’s Max Fisher. http://bit.ly/1Cova3Z