Iran’s Position Shows Room for a Possible Deal

July 6, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Leah Fae Cochran

Room for a deal - MIT professor Jim Walsh reviewed Iran’s current negotiating position, as outlined in a document from Iran’s UN mission, and came away believing a deal was possible if it included curbs on 20% enrichment for sanctions relief and the right to enrich in return for fuller cooperation and monitoring from the IAEA.

--”The tricky issue would be sequencing,” reports Julian Borger. The P5+1 will want proof of Iranian goodwill up front, while Iran wants the other side to make the first concession. Full story and analysis of the Iran document at The Guardian. http://bit.ly/L5Yo2j

Tweet - @Nukes_of_hazard: New on the blog: "More News on the Nuclear Guidance Review?" http://bit.ly/NI0sZO

Evaluating sanctions - Meghan O’Sullivan analyzes whether sanctions will change Iran’s behavior and concludes that it depends on the vitality of negotiations, credibility of the military threat, Iran’s domestic calculus, and whether global oil prices rise or not.

--”The transmission belt between economic pain and political change is, of course, dynamic. As policymakers and market watchers evaluate the new sanctions, the economic barometer may not be the best predictor of whether Iran's leaders are going to make a strategic shift,” writes O’Sullivan in the L.A. Times. http://lat.ms/N0sioC

Sanctions going too far? - ”The Sanctions Aren’t Working” by Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi and Muhammad Sahimi in Foreign Policy. http://bit.ly/M7Rgii

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

Expand security cooperation - The U.S. and Russia have seen great success at cooperative initiatives to strengthen nuclear security. A new report from nuclear experts at CNS, CENESS, and VCNP (acronym decoder on report cover), argues that the U.S. and Russia should offer their joint expertise in nuclear security - material protection, control and accounting, border control, radiological source control and management, etc. - to improve security in former Soviet states and Southeast Asia.

--Full pdf report here. Anton Khlopkov and Elena Sokova editors. http://bit.ly/MaghuD

Voting on Nukes - “New Mexico Voters Must Ask The Nuclear Question” Editorial from the Albuquerque Journal. http://bit.ly/PkopfT

Poll -A poll published on an Iranian state-owned media website asked the people of Iran, "Which way do you prefer to confront the unilateral sanctions of the West against Iran?", according to the BBC.

--Results were: 63% preferred "the suspension of uranium enrichment in exchange for gradual lifting of sanctions", 19% picked "closing the Strait of Hormuz as an act of retaliation", and 18% wanted to "resist unilateral sanctions in order to safeguard nuclear rights". Of course, the website also explained that the results "by no means can reflect the views of all or even the majority of the revolutionary people of Iran". Read the full-story here. http://bbc.in/MNAsRV

Tweet - @Ali_Gharib: Iran Says BBC Hacked Online Poll Calling For Nuclear Compromise To End Sanctions via @TP_Security thkpr.gs/OAr5om

Kim’s Hymn - North Korea has released a new propaganda hymn dedicated to Kim Jong Un. The song, “Onward Toward the Final Victory,” has a fancy music video in which the North’s missile mockups make a brief cameo. Shuan Sim at The Atlantic has the story and translation. http://bit.ly/NHPYK1