Iran’s Past Sins Should Not Prevent a Nuclear Deal

Kerry: Focus on future, not past mistakes - Secretary of State John Kerry said yesterday that a public accounting of Iran’s past nuclear activities is not necessary to reaching a deal with Iran. “We know what they did... We have no doubt. We have absolute knowledge with respect to certain military activities they were engaged in. What we’re concerned about is going forward. It’s critical to us to know… those activities have been stopped and that we can account for that in a legitimate way.” Full story from the AP’s Matthew Lee here. http://wapo.st/1BiL6Lf

--Joe Cirincione of the Ploughshares Fund agrees: “It’s more important to know Tehran will have no nuclear weapons for the next 20 years than to obsess over what it did 20 years ago… Having Iranian officials publicly acknowledge their past sins might be as satisfying as having Cersei Lannister kneel in confession before the High Sparrow, but it won’t substantially improve our knowledge of Iran’s nuclear program or our national security.” Get the full story from Joe in Defense One here. http://bit.ly/1FoCFcm

Overcoming the inspections hurdle - One of the last major obstacles in the negotiations with Iran regards the access of inspectors to military sites. “It is a no-brainer that Iran should not be able to hide nuclear-weapons work at military bases. Iran, on the other hand, has a legitimate need to protect military secrets that are unrelated to illicit nuclear activity.” The solution, writes Mark Fitzpatrick, is “managed access.” “It won’t have the same ring as ‘anywhere, anytime’, but ‘access where needed, when needed’ is the answer.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1FZjiYQ

Expert analysis - In a new policy brief from the Arms Control Association, Kelsey Davenport and Daryl Kimball write that the emerging Iran deal “would verifiably block Iran’s pathways to nuclear weapons development.” A final agreement, “will be a net-plus for nonproliferation and will enhance U.S. and regional security.” http://bit.ly/1TqV1Ei

--See also: “Yes, the Iran Nuclear Deal Will Be Good for the U.S.” By Gary Samore, the President of United Against Nuclear Iran. http://ti.me/1Bq1t8L

Iran deal can open new doors - If a nuclear accord with Iran is reached, “in 10–15 years the world could see a more moderate Iran, reduced instability in the Middle East, a stronger global non-proliferation regime, and an environment in which America’s prestige and influence has increased as a result of the nuclear agreement,” writes Ilan Goldenberg in a new report the Center for a New American Security.

--“On the other hand, with poor execution and the wrong policies the United States could face a very different world in 2025: a more hostile and aggressive Iran on the verge of nuclear weapons; a Middle East still drowning in sectarian violence and civil war; a damaged non-proliferation regime; and an international perception that the nuclear agreement with Iran was a historic mistake that significantly harmed American interests.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1BfI8Hr

Slow-motion arms race - “In a sprawling park 30 miles outside Moscow, President Vladimir V. Putin welcomed the country’s first high-tech military exposition on Tuesday, announcing in his opening remarks that Russia would add 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles to its nuclear stockpile this year… Analysts see the increasing emphasis on military matters as a sign that the changes wrought by the Ukraine crisis are cementing a more confrontational relationship between Russia and the West, something of a new arms race.”

--“Yet as races go, it is a slow-motion contest, with little appetite to invest in the kind of Cold War arsenals that had assured mutual destruction. For one thing, Russia, given its economic problems, probably cannot afford even the weapons that Mr. Putin has pledged to deliver by 2020. Six months ago, he said the country would add 50 ballistic missiles to its nuclear arsenal this year, and at least one senior Russian military official has indicated publicly that the Kremlin’s appetite exceeds its wallet.” http://nyti.ms/1J5Twbs

Tweet - @CarnegieRussia: How can the world powers revive nuclear arms control? Read Alexei Arbatov's report here: http://ceip.org/1N2onEk

Issue brief - “U.S.-Russian Nuclear Security Cooperation: Rebuilding Equality, Mutual Benefit, and Respect,” by Nicolas Roth for the Deep Cuts Commission. http://bit.ly/1LhnDxi

Tweet - @ilangoldenberg: An American Strategy for Making the Iran Deal Work, via @thenatlinterest http://bit.ly/1L2zSg5

Cyber & nukes - “One of the most chilling comments I’ve ever heard was the former commander of U.S. nuclear forces telling a San Francisco audience this month that our nuclear missiles could be hacked — launched and detonated without authorization,” writes Joe Cirincione, President of the Ploughshares Fund. “If you thought this was just a fantasy from the sci-fi movie, ‘Terminator,’ think again.”

--“There are only two realities in the modern, interconnected world,” Retired Marine Gen. James Cartwright warned: “You’ve either been hacked and not admitting it, or you’re being hacked and don’t know it.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1J5RQin

Quick hits:

--“Calibrating the risk of Iran sanctions relief,” by Richard Nephew for Reuters. http://bit.ly/1HQen0W

--“Cost Estimate for MOX Plant Jumps,” by Kingston Reif for Arms Control Today. http://bit.ly/1Srt1in

--“Central Asian NWFZ Treaty Sent to Senate,” by Joseph Rodgers for Arms Control Today. http://bit.ly/1BlCvre

Events:

--Book discussion, “Nixon's Nuclear Specter: The Secret Alert of 1969, Madman Diplomacy and the Vietnam War” with authors Jeffrey Kimball and William Burr. June 18, 12 p.m. National Archives, McGowan Theater, 700 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. Webcast here. http://bit.ly/1R4FmX9

--“The Korean Peninsula Issues and U.S. National Security.” Featuring Dennis Blair, Sasakawa USA, and James Miller, former Undersecretary for Defense for Policy. On June 18 from 1:30-4:30 p.m. Located in 216 Hart Office Building, Washington. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1QBn70z

--P5+1 and Iran continue talks at the ministerial level on Iran's nuclear program. Vienna. June 20.

--“Discussion of Iranian and U.S. Public Opinion." Featuring Suzanne Maloney, Brookings Institution; Alireza Nader, RAND; and Alex Vatanka, Middle East Institute. From noon - 2:00 p.m. on June 19. Sponsored by Public Affairs Alliance of Iranian Americans. Located at HC-8 Capitol Building, Washington. Contact Hannah Volmar at hannah@paaia.org or (202) 828-8370 to RSVP for this event.

--Report release: “Project Atom: A Competitive Strategies Approach to Defining U.S. Nuclear Strategy and Posture for 2025-2050.” Featuring Elbridge Colby of the Center for a New American Security, Dr. Keith Payne the CEO and President of the National Institute for Public Policy, and Dr. Barry Blechman Co-Founder of The Stimson Center. From 9:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m. on Monday, June 22. Located on the 2nd Floor Conference Center of CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here by June 19. http://bit.ly/1Guy9wU

Dessert:

Nuclear butterfingers - Joe Posner and Estelle Caswell of Vox have created a terrifying new video chronicling America’s numerous nuclear accidents and near-catastrophes. The shocking stories in the video come from investigative reporter Eric Schlosser's book Command and Control, which chronicles the U.S. military’s "litany of errors" in its handling of nuclear weapons.

--If you don’t remember that time the U.S. nearly "destroyed a large part of the Florida coast" by accident, you might want to take a look. http://bit.ly/1G0zXuZ