Iran’s Election and the Nuclear Issue

On the radar: Politics may change, nuclear issue might not; Sen. Alexander’s billion-dollar frustrations; Aligning nuclear strategy; and Using nukes to flatten forests.

June 3, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Elections and the nuclear issue - How Iran’s supreme leader allows the country’s presidential elections to proceed might give insight into his next move in nuclear negotiations. Laicie Heeley offers context on Iran’s candidates, how the nuclear issue is playing and how the Supreme Leader might act.

--”The supreme leader states that he continues to remain open to direct talks with the United States, but such talks will not yield results until the United States agrees to lift sanctions. A new president will have a small opportunity to capitalize on this potential opening to set his own agenda and move away from the inflammatory rhetoric and policy of the provocative Ahmadinejad.”

--”The United States and its allies should be careful not to place a disproportionate amount of hope in the outcome of Iran's upcoming elections. A new leader could provide a crucial opening for a shift in relations, but the end game will remain the same. In order to find a solution to the current nuclear impasse, the United States and Iran must work to find common ground. If the two sides are unwilling or unable to compromise, negotiations will not succeed, regardless of who comes to power in June,” writes Heeley. Full post in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/13g1eIR

Kerry on Iran’s election - “I do not have high expectations that the election is going to change the fundamental calculus of Iran...The supreme leader will ultimately make that decision,” said Sec. John Kerry during a joint appearance at the State Department with German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle.

--Sec. Kerry said that, while the Obama administration does not expect the election to change Iran’s nuclear decision-making, the administration would “continue to pursue every effort to have a peaceful resolution.” Paul Richter at The LA Times has the story. http://lat.ms/10LwXBS

Tweet - @ColinKahl: IAEA Director slams Iran. This may be headed back 2 the UN Security Council in the coming months. http://bit.ly/17iwfzX

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Lamar’s lament - Last week, Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) said he had “pretty well had it with these big Energy Department projects that start out costing a billion dollars and end up costing $6 billion.” Kingston Reif explains the senator’s frustration by listing four programs whose costs are ballooning into the billions.

--”Unending cost growth. Debilitating schedule delays. Wasted taxpayer dollars. Overzealous project designs. Outdated mission requirements. All while more and more money continues to be poured into the weapons complex. It's little wonder, then, that Sen. Alexander has fully well had it,” writes Reif at Nukes of Hazard. http://bit.ly/10TsMke

Realignment - “The more than 1,500 deployed nuclear weapons currently in our arsenal may have been historically effective in deterring a nuclear exchange with the Soviet Union, but this arsenal has done nothing to deter the ongoing proliferation of such weapons,” write Brig. Gen. Stephen Cheney and Matthew Wallin in The Hill. They suggest realigning U.S. nuclear policy to better address today’s threats.

--Recommendations: Enhance extended deterrence with partners threatened by Iran or North Korea, strengthen nonproliferation programs, develop new technologies for thwarting nuclear terrorism, have contingency plans in case a nuclear state collapses, and “continue to work with Russia and other countries in order to reduce the enormous size and expense of our nuclear arsenals, thereby allowing us to redistribute those funds to the tools and programs designed to address real and potential threats.” http://bit.ly/11d7jBr

Tweet - @NTI_GSN: U.S. Considers Deploying Patriots to Jordan http://t.co/XJKzYaOgew

CTBT - In a letter responding to a recent New York Times editorial on “Throwing Money at Nukes,” William Lambers argues the U.S. needs to reduce its spending and renew efforts on disarmament. “One quick way we can start moving the focus back to nuclear disarmament and cost-cutting is finally to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty,” writes Lambers. http://nyti.ms/15v5XGF

Speed reads -

--”U.N. nuclear chief: Iran talks 'going round in circles'” by Fredrik Dahl at Reuters. http://reut.rs/10LxROK

--”Russia Plans to Launch 16 ICBMs This Year” from Ria Novosti. http://bit.ly/11m7kqV

Events:

--House Armed Services Committee, markup of the defense authorization bill, H.R. 1960, which includes the nuclear weapons and nuclear nonproliferation programs of NNSA. June 5, 10:00 am. Webcast here. http://owl.li/lsGRO

--Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, hearing on the Missile Defense Agency budget, with Vice Adm. James Syring, Director, Missile Defense Agency. June 5, 10:00 am. Webcast here. http://owl.li/lsHgp

--"Missiles in South Asia: Deterrence Stability on the Subcontinent.” Rob Williams and Dinshaw Mistry. June 5 12:30-2:30 pm @ Stimson Center. Details here. http://owl.li/lsHBz

--”Ballistic Missile Defense- Technical, Strategic and Arms Control Challenges.” Discussion with Phil Coyle, George Lewis, Bruce MacDonald, Pierce Corden, and Charles Ferguson to moderate. June 6th from 4:45-7:00pm at AAAS, reception to follow. Details here. http://bit.ly/188gZ90

--June 10th is the 50th anniversary of President Kennedy’s commencement address at American University, where he called for banning nuclear testing. http://bit.ly/18J6Ugk

Dessert:

Nuking trees - During the Vietnam War, some Pentagon official offhandedly suggested it might be a good idea to use nuclear weapons to knock down swaths of Vietnam’s jungle. Interestingly, the U.S. has experience modeling blown-down trees, because in 1953 nuclear scientists “planted” 145 ponderosa pines in concrete holes in the Nevada desert and knocked them down with an air-burst nuclear test.

--The result is the historic video of pines being set ablaze and knocked around during a nuclear test. Ann Finkbeiner at Slate explores the strange episode in nuclear history. http://slate.me/17Rz1Ny