Interim Nuclear Deal has Proved a “Milestone”

Iran’s unserious critics - Opponents of the nuclear negotiations get louder every day, writes Roger Cohen for The New York Times. “Walk away from an Iran nuclear deal,” they say. But of course there is a deal in place, an interim one, much derided when it emerged. “At the time, Bob Corker of the Senate Foreign Relations committee lambasted the accord as requiring ‘no sacrifice on their part whatsoever.’” Now his tune has changed. Senator Corker (R-TN), seems to think the interim agreement is “good enough to leave in place.” This should come as no surprise. “The interim agreement, respected to the letter by Iran, has proved a milestone.”

--“It has curtailed the country’s nuclear program in a way not seen in many years. Instead of steadily adding centrifuges, the pattern before Obama’s diplomacy, Iran has stopped installation, eliminated or diluted its 20-percent-enriched uranium, and permitted intensified international inspection, among other measures. It has proved Corker’s prediction of ‘no sacrifice’ dead wrong.”

--“This is instructive. It does not mean Iran is to be trusted. It does mean that hard-nosed agreements with Iran can stick and that Tehran must be taken seriously in its declared readiness to reach a fair deal with the United States and its partners. It makes nonsense of Florida Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio’s statement that the Vienna talks are a ‘diplomatic charade.’” “There’s a good deal to be had,” but that opportunity “must not be squandered.” http://nyti.ms/1gq3J6p

Tweet - @tparsi: The Cuban missile crisis ended after a 13 day-long apocalyptic standoff. The #IranTalksVienna just entered its 13th day... @ClancyReports

New stockpile numbers - The U.S. State Department has released a fact sheet with the latest nuclear numbers stockpile numbers under New START.

--The U.S. has 785 deployed ICBMs, nuclear submarines and heavy bombers, while the Russian Federation has 515. The deployed American weapons platforms carry a total of 1597 nuclear warheads, while the Russian arsenal consists of 1582. See the full fact sheet of New Start data here. http://1.usa.gov/1UEYy2e

Wise words - German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche once said, “the most common form of human stupidity is forgetting what one is trying to do.” In the case of nuclear negotiations with Iran, “what is the U.S. trying to do?” The goal is clear, to “stop Iran verifiably and interruptibly short of a nuclear bomb.”

--“The question members of Congress must answer is whether the deal the P5+1 partners have negotiated is more likely to prevent Iran’s acquiring a bomb for the lifetime of the agreement than any feasible alternative. As they do, they must contend with critics [and] should be prepared for five claims argued vigorously in opposing previous arms-control agreements…[T]hey will find that history has proved each wrong.” Read the full story from Graham Allison at The Atlantic here. http://theatln.tc/1HbKPH2

Leading by example - “If the P5+1 and Iran are able to come to a final agreement on a nuclear accord that deters Iran from developing nuclear weapons, this moment could represent a seminal achievement in the history of nuclear non-proliferation negotiations,” write Ilan Goldenberg and Anver Colov for The National Interest. “The agreement could prevent the possibility of proliferation in the Middle East while setting precedents that can be applied globally.”

-- "The international campaign prior to the agreement could become a model for how to effectively deal with violators… Beyond addressing violators, the agreement could also set new norms that apply universally to all nuclear states… The United States should take the most positive elements of the agreement with Iran and turn them into global best practices.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1IM4HVT

Failure a bad option - Failure to reach a deal with Iran over its nuclear program would likely produce one or more of the following scenarios: “an expanded Iranian nuclear program; an erosion of broad international sanctions without any benefit to regional and global security; heightened potential for military conflict; and the loss of opportunities to work on major areas of common concern to Iran and the United States.” Read more from Dalia Dassa Kaye for Foreign Affairs here. http://fam.ag/1Hgu4d1

Quick Hits:

--“Iran Nuke Talks Lurch Toward (another) Deadline,” by Matthew Lee for AP. http://abcn.ws/1gq2OTN

--Policy Brief: “The Limits of Iran’s Regional Ambitions,” by J. Dana Stuster for National Security Network. http://bit.ly/1MhOTsX

Events:

--“The Future of the U.S.-India Partnership: Ten Years After the Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative,” featuring William J. Burns, Chandrajit Banerjee, Arun Singh, Nisha Biswal, R. Nicholas Burns, David Sanger, Stephen Hadley and more. Monday, July 13 from 8:15 AM - 5:00 PM. Located the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave., Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1JRGPi6

--”The Endgame: Who Got What From the Iran Talks?,” featuring Olli Heinonen, Amb. James Dobbins, Elizabeth Rosenberg, and Joe Cirincione. Monday, July 13 from 9:30 AM - 11:00 AM. Located at the U.S. Institute for Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dt11ey

--“Can We Save the Nonproliferation Regime?,” featuring Des Browne, Nuclear Threat Initiative and six additional panelists. Tuesday, July 14 from 10:30 AM - 2:00 PM. Located at the Johnson Center, Fifth Floor, 1399 New York Ave., Washington, D.C. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1HaOiVu

--”Can the IAEA Effectively Verify an Agreement Between Iran and the P5+1?,” featuring William Green Miller, Thomas Shea, and Jim Walsh. Moderated by Barbara Slavin. Wednesday, July 15 from 9:30 AM - 11:00 AM. Located at the Atlantic Council, Twelfth Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington, D.C. RSVP here.http://bit.ly/1D2W9mY

--“State Department, ‘Generation Prague Conference’”. Wednesday- Friday, July 15 - 17. Located at the State Department, George C. Marshall Auditorium, 21st St., NW, between C St. & Virginia Ave., Washington, DC and George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E St., NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1Swamlo