IAEA Expects Deal with Iran

On the radar: Progress made; Why give Patriots to Turkey; Kerry, Hagel, Rice; Is an Iran deal possible; Disarmament and nonproliferation; Dealing with North Korea; and Advertising for weapons designers.

December 14, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Potential IAEA deal - “Talks between the U.N. atomic agency and Iran are expected to lead to a deal next month on resuming an investigation into Tehran's nuclear programme, the chief U.N. inspector said after returning from Tehran on Friday,” reports Fredrik Dahl at Reuters.

-- The IAEA and Iran are set to meet again on January 16. "We expect to finalise the structured approach and start implementing it then shortly after that," said IAEA team leader Herman Nackaerts. http://reut.rs/SoUmqr

Patriots to Turkey - NATO allies are preparing to deploy Patriot missile and air defense systems to Turkey “as a relatively simple means to demonstrate alliance solidarity and protect against remote but serious ballistic missile threats [from Syria],” write Aaron Stein and Shashank Joshi in Foreign Policy.

--Patriots are not perfect. They are capable of defending against a narrow range of air and missile threats, but the newest systems (PAC-3 missiles) have yet to be tested against Scud missiles in battlefield conditions. In the first Gulf War, PAC-2 missiles may have had a startlingly low hit rate - near-zero percent - according to independent studies. Full analysis here. http://atfp.co/Urv46n

Tweet - @glubold: Two Patriot batteries and 400 Americans headed to Turkey to defend against Syrian spillover, we learn on Panetta's plane. #Syria #NATO

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Name game - “The case for John Kerry as secretary of state” by David Ignatius of The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/Y1pQV3

--”Top five reasons Obama should pick Chuck Hagel for SecDef” by Stephen Walt at Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/Xm6CEF
--”Why I made the right call” by Amb. Susan Rice in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/SoJVDj

Article - “Is a Nuclear Deal with Iran Possible? An Analytical Framework for the Iran Nuclear Negotiations” by James Sebenius and Michael Singh in International Security.

--Abstract: Graphing a “negotiation analytic” framework, the authors argue “the Iranian regime's no-deal options, at least through the fall of 2012, appear superior to potential nuclear agreements. If so, purely tactical and process-oriented initiatives will fail. Opening space for a mutually acceptable nuclear deal—one that avoids both military conflict and a nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable Iran—requires relentlessly and creatively worsening Iran's no-deal options while enhancing the value of a deal to the Iranian regime.” (paywall) http://bit.ly/12puAn2

Launches - Russia’s commander of the Strategic Rocket Forces announced that his service will conduct 11 ballistic missile launches in 2013. That is the same number forecast for 2012, though only 4 launches took place. From Russian Forces. http://bit.ly/UrFMKa

Article - “Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation: Examining the Linkage Argument” by Jeffrey Knopf in International Security.

--Abstract: “Comparative assessment of the arguments on [whether there is a linkage between disarmament and nonproliferation] suggests that signs of commitment to nuclear disarmament by the nuclear weapon states will tend to enhance support for nonproliferation. Because of the multitude of other factors that affect state decisionmaking, however, progress on disarmament will not by itself address all of the challenges to making the nonproliferation regime effective.” (paywall) http://bit.ly/W59TNu

Interview - Three Stanford experts - David Straub, Thomas Fingar, and Nick Hansen - field questions on North Korea’s launch, and offer speculation for its future implications. Topics include: the international community response, a third underground nuclear test, the launch timing and the success’ overall impact on the global community. http://stanford.io/Th4CxC

Tweet - @chicoharlan: #DPRK state-run news agency publishes photo of Kim Jong Eun watching the rocket launch -- while smoking a cigarette. pic.twitter.com/eSsxInhl

Losing friends - “The aftermath [of North Korea’s rocket launch] can be managed through clever diplomacy that exploits the few changes that do appear to have taken place under the Kim Jong Un regime,” writes Andrea Berger, reflecting on her recent trip to Pyongyang.

--The author recommends that countries show North Korea’s behavior is losing it old friends quicker than it is making new ones, with a condemnatory Security Council resolution with Chinese and Russian support and a unified diplomatic approach from countries with missions in North Korea. http://atfp.co/SoLwcf

Moving forward - “The U.S. does not seem to have a playbook for curbing North Korea's increasingly threatening behavior,” notes Elise Labott. She offers, “in lieu of engaging North Korea...the U.S. could refocus on containment and strengthening efforts to curb its weapons program.”

--Recommendations: “In addition to tightening existing sanctions and examining further ones, the U.S. can intensify measures to curb North Korean procurement of sensitive technology, including the Proliferation Security Initiative, a U.S.-led effort to stem the illicit trafficking of weapons of mass destruction and delivery systems. Close to 100 countries are members of the program.” CNN has the story. http://bit.ly/UgW0Gw

Tweet - @FAScientists: @senatorlugar @Gottemoeller honors Sen Lugar for work on foreign policy and arms control pic.twitter.com/IreugvET

Advertising - What’s the best way to recruit nuclear weapons designers? Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data pours through Cold War magazine advertisements from Los Alamos, Sandia, and Livermore labs in attempt to answer the question.

--”Do you appeal to rad science and rad living conditions because you don’t want to turn off people who aren’t totally sold on WMDs, or do you assume that the only people who are going to apply have already made their peace with that idea?” See the ads here. http://bit.ly/VGkTus