How European Allies View Progress on the Iran Deal

Status of talks - The P5+1 talks with Iran are “proceeding at a slow pace,” said Amb. Peter Wittig, German envoy to the U.S., at a recent Atlantic Council event. “You need the pressure of timelines to facilitate the heavy lifting. ... There are tremendously complicated issues to clarify. Small wonder, they are not making a lot of fast progress now… I am confident we can overcome the divergence of views.” Laura Rozen at Al Monitor has the quote. http://bit.ly/1QafSY7

Sanctions if no deal - If Iran and the P5+1 fail to reach a comprehensive agreement, international sanctions against Iran will likely erode unless the failure to get an agreement were “clearly, incontrovertibly” Iran’s fault, said Amb. Peter Westmacott, U.K. envoy to the U.S., at the Atlantic Council event.

--“If diplomacy fails, then the sanctions regime might unravel,” said Amb. Wittig. “It depends on who’s to blame if there’s no deal.” Indira Lakshmanan has the full story at Bloomberg Business. http://bloom.bg/1HLcAuY

Event video - Missed yesterday’s Atlantic Council event with the Ambassadors of Britain, France and Germany on the Iran nuclear deal? Watch the video here. http://bit.ly/1HIupem

Timing - “The deadline might be extended and the talks might continue after the June 30 (deadline)...We are not bound to a specific time. We want a good deal that covers our demands,” said Iran’s nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi. Parisa Hafezi has the story for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1KopTis

Politics and positioning - Iran’s Supreme Leader praised the country’s nuclear negotiators in recent remarks to parliament, pushing back against criticism from domestic hardliners.

--Ayatollah Ali Khamenei emphasized that the negotiators’ position aligns with the regime, creating political space for a final agreement. AFP has the full story. http://yhoo.it/1RnS7y0

Snap-back - The U.S. and Russia are close to a compromise that allows for U.N. sanctions to be quickly re-imposed if Iran violates terms of a final nuclear agreement, George Jahn reports for the Associated Press.

--While senior U.S. officials see ‘snap-back’ as “the basic premise of our approach to sanctions,” Russia has used its UN Security Council veto to block attempts to introduce measures in the past, concerned about the precedent of automatic triggers. Full story here: http://abcn.ws/1JVltlp

Financial monitoring - While IAEA inspectors will monitor Iran’s nuclear facilities under a deal, “who will monitor the country for proliferation-related transactions? And exactly how will they do it? It is important to consider what role banks may play in such a monitoring and verification regime, as well as the possible challenges they face,” write Niko Passas and Aaron Arnold in The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

--The authors make recommendations for both sides of the negotiations: “Iran should… commit to joining the Financial Action Task Force, and implement measures to fix strategic deficiencies within its own financial sector… [for the U.S. and allies,] there is an urgent need for an honest broker (such as a non-profit organization or university unit) of financial and commercial data alongside open-source information and intelligence for systematic analysis.” http://bit.ly/1PKF10k

China MIRV - China’s recent declaration that it is arming its ICBMs with multiple nuclear warheads “is a decision driven by technology, not strategy,” writes Jeffrey Lewis for Foreign Policy.

--Lewis sketches how technical milestones drive China’s nuclear posture, not big deployments, and opens a discussion on what it means for stability if China (like the U.S.) is undertaking an open-ended nuclear modernization effort without much thought for preventing an arms race. http://atfp.co/1Ay6nQs

Tweet - @KingstonAReif: New US-ROK civilian nuclear cooperation ("123") agreement likely to be signed then… RT: @peterbakernyt Obama will host South Korean President Park Geun-hye at the White House on June 16, aides announce.

Congress vs Pentagon - Members of Congress pressing for a missile defense site on the East Coast are at odds with Pentagon officials, who prefer to invest in upgrading their network of sensors and kill vehicles. Brendan McGarry has the update on the ongoing missile defense debate for DoD Buzz. http://bit.ly/1IZ7Cv9

U.S.-Russia cooperation - “Given the threat from ‘loose nukes’ to our national security, the United States should take steps to jump-start U.S.-Russian nuclear security cooperation,” writes former USAID officer Josh Cohen for Reuters.

--Cohen urges Congress to restart funding on nuclear security cooperation, which was barred by Congress last year as U.S.-Russia relations deteriorated. http://reut.rs/1FDg27s

Program ended - President Obama revoked the state of emergency executive order that provided for payments to Russia under the 1993 “Megatons to Megawatts” program, under which Russia sold 500 metric tons of highly enriched uranium from nuclear warheads to the U.S. for use in power reactors.

--The last payment under the program occurred in December 2013, bringing to a close one of the most successful nonproliferation programs in history. http://usat.ly/1QacfRT

Report - “China’s Access to Uranium Resources” by Hui Zhang and Yunsheng Bai for Harvard’s Project on Managing the Atom. May 2015. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1FaM3QW

Antinuclear nun released - Sister Megan Rice, an 85 year old Catholic Nun, was recently released after two years in prison for breaking into the Y-12 National Security Complex and covering its walls with anti-war slogans. William J. Broad details Sister Rice’s remarkable life and activism for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1FOC3BJ

Tweet - @Cirincione: Map: Where almost 2,500 nuclear bombs have exploded since 1945. http://ow.ly/NrMIO

Quick Hits:

--“Iran nuclear talks resume in Vienna ahead of June deadline,” by the Associated Press. http://bit.ly/1LJ3BJg

--“Russia: No date yet for Iran’s S-300 air defense missiles,” by the Associated Press. http://wapo.st/1PNipwn

--“U.S., South Korea, Japan seek to raise pressure on North's nuclear program,” by Ju-Min Park and Jack Kim for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1FYIJz0