House Letter Urges Allowing Iran Diplomacy to Succeed

February 4, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

House letter - More than 70 House members have “signed a new letter [to President Obama] coming out against any new sanctions measure and calling for diplomacy to be given a chance. This represents the first public statement from House Dems en masse against [new sanctions] and for diplomacy, matching what we’ve been seeing in the Senate,” writes Greg Sargent in The Washington Post.

--“We believe that Congress must give diplomacy a chance. A bill or resolution that risks fracturing our international coalition or, worse yet, undermining our credibility in future negotiations and jeopardizing hard-won progress toward a verifiable final agreement, must be avoided… we believe that robust diplomacy remains our best possible strategic option, and we commend you and your designees for the developments in Geneva,” the Members wrote to President Obama. Full article and text of the letter here. http://wapo.st/1k7Ga1q

Intel community perspective - “On Jan. 29, The Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, provided testimony to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence implicitly contradicting the arguments of those criticizing the Joint Plan of Action now being implemented by Iran and its six negotiating partners,” writes Greg Thielmann for Arms Control Now. “In presenting the intelligence community’s ‘Worldwide Threat Assessment,’ Clapper said the Joint Plan of Action, if fully implemented, will: Temporarily halt the expansion of [Iran’s uranium] enrichment program; eliminate its production and stockpile of 20-percent enriched uranium in a form suitable for further enrichment; and Provide additional transparency into its existing and planned nuclear facilities, which would provide earlier warning of a breakout using these facilities.”

--“Clapper also stood by the judgment he voiced last week that ‘new sanctions now would undermine the prospects of a successful comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran.’ He further characterized the imposition of additional sanctions right now as ‘counterproductive,’ something that ‘would jeopardize the agreement.’ Moreover, in response to a question at the hearing, he agreed with the statement of Sen. Angus King (I-ME) that new sanctions now were not needed as leverage; it was the knowledge that Congress can impose them that provided Iran the incentive to comply with the agreement.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1bZGoQ4

Within reach - “Iran's foreign minister said Monday he is confident that his country will be able to forge a final agreement with world powers on its nuclear program by July 20,” writes Frank Jordans for AP. “"We need to use the six months that we have in order to reach an agreement, because if we lose these six months the public momentum will swing to the other side," Foreign Minister Zarif said. Full article here. http://abcn.ws/1ijraK8

Tweet - @Cirincione: A little common sense from a @nytimes letter-writer on: Outdated Missile Policy http://t.co/VirZTblUKV

Broken system - “In the next few months, the Pentagon plans to conduct a test of its troubled long-range missile defense system. If this test is successful, the Defense Department says it will expand the system on the West Coast by 50 percent to counter missiles from North Korea. Yet last week, for the first time, the Pentagon’s chief weapons tester suggested that in light of recent setbacks, a key part of the system should be redesigned to make it ‘robust against failure,’” writes Tom Collina in Defense One.

--“This is yet another reminder that the U.S. missile defense system—already deployed in Alaska and California at taxpayer expense of $40 billion—is still not ready for prime time. Regardless of what happens in the next test, this system should not be expanded until it is fixed… Surely, at this time of tight budgets, there are better uses for U.S. defense dollars.” Collina says. “Fortunately, long-range missile threats from North Korea and Iran are not progressing as swiftly as many had feared… But regardless of the threat, throwing good money after bad at missile defenses that do not defend is no solution. The United States should not field additional long-range missile interceptors until the current system is redesigned and—most importantly—tested rigorously against realistic targets.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1nNMKKM

IAEA eyes polonium - “U.N. Nuclear Agency May Press Iran on Rare Isotope in Bomb Probe” by Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1euXWrK

Tweet - @McFaul: After 7 months of separation, I simply need to be with my family. A 9,000 km commute just doesn’t work. @USEmbRu http://bit.ly/1k7B3hO

Iran optimism - “Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, on a visit to Tehran, said he believes a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran is possible within six months,” reports RFERL. “I'm convinced, if there is goodwill on both sides, a deal is possible within the very ambitious time frame of six months...It's not going to be easy and it requires a genuine will for compromises on both sides. But I think the benefits that are there for both sides are so obvious that everyone should focus minds on actually achieving it,” said Bilt. Full story here. http://bit.ly/1fEeM7C

Open source intelligence - “It is possible, using open source information, to make some preliminary judgments about China’s claim, as well as North Korea’s infrastructure for producing [Transporter-Erector-Launchers]. Although it is hard to believe that the Chinese were not aware that North Korea would use the vehicle chassis for its illicit missile program, available evidence suggests that Pyongyang did indeed add the erectors at facilities known to assemble missile [Transporter-Erector-Launchers],”

--Full post: “That Ain’t My Truck: Where North Korea Assembled its Chinese Transporter-Erector-Launchers” by Jeffrey Lewis, Melissa Hanham and Amber Lee for 38 North. http://bit.ly/1aohzSE

Nuclear supply pact - “The Obama administration is pushing for a 40-year extension to its nuclear trade agreement with the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency,” Diane Barnes reports for Global Security Newswire. “A proposal submitted to Congress last week would renew for another 40 years a decades-old accord that lets Washington supply nonmilitary nuclear assets to the International Atomic Energy Agency and its member states.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/1kLzdkl

British nuclear revamp slows - “Plans to replace the British submarine-based nuclear deterrent could be losing favor among rank-and-file Labor Party lawmakers,” reports Global Security Newswire. Full story here. http://bit.ly/Mrs38E

Events:

--”Negotiations on Iran’s Nuclear Program.” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing with Wendy Sherman, David Cohen, David Albright, and Mark Dubowitz. Feb. 4 at 12:00, 419 Dirksen Senate Office Building. Webcast available here. http://1.usa.gov/LHu9RT

--"Reporting on Cheating, Burnout and Scandal in the U.S. Nuclear Force." Discussion with Robert Burns and Wendy Benjaminson, Associated Press. Feb. 5 at 2:00, Newseum, Knight TV Studio, 555 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington. Webcast on the Newseum website. http://bit.ly/MRX7zj

--“At the Table: Perspectives on Iran Negotiations from Two Former U.S. Negotiators.” Discussion with Nicholas Burns and Robert Einhorn. Sponsored by the Partnership for a Secure America. Feb. 7 from 11:00-noon at 2118 Rayburn HOB. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dah61g

--”U.S.-Russian Relations in the 21st Century.” Discussion with Angela Stent, Fiona Hill, and Peter Baker. Feb. 18 from 2:00-3:30 at Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1bqFDTe