A Hawk’s Guide to Sabotaging Any Agreement with Iran

June 30, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

The deal-breaker’s playbook - “Though the United States has yet to secure a final deal to restrain Iran's nuclear program, an influential pair of hawks in Washington have already devised a way for Congress to unravel any potential agreement after the ink is dry,” reports John Hudson for Foreign Policy. “The plan, obtained by Foreign Policy, calls on Congress to oppose the lifting of financial sanctions on Iran until it proves that its entire financial sector, including the Central Bank of Iran, has sworn off support for terrorism, money-laundering, and proliferation.”

--“Some of those topics haven't been part of the ongoing U.S.-led talks with Tehran, which means that linking sanctions relief to those conditions after a deal is made would likely drive the Iranians off the wall, say experts. Tehran would likely see any such measures as moving the goalposts and as evidence that the United States wasn't genuinely interested in backing up its end of the deal.”

--“The two authors of the plan -- Mark Dubowitz, the executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank, and Richard Goldberg, the former senior foreign-policy advisor to Illinois Republican Sen. Mark Kirk -- each played pivotal roles in shaping the Iran sanctions debate in the past year. Rather than blowing up an historic agreement, they both insist the paper is simply a guide for how to keep sanctions in place that will deter and punish Iran if it doesn't comply with a final deal.” Full report here. http://atfp.co/1lymJPI

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: Karen DeYoung @washingtonpost on the unprecedented international effort to remove, destroy Syria's chemical weapons http://wapo.st/1qJ9yMD

Alternatives - “The Air Force has completed a study of options for modernizing its strategic nuclear missile arsenal and will present the plan next month,” reports Global Security Newswire. “The ‘analysis of alternatives’ for maintaining a ground-based strategic deterrent is to be briefed to interested companies on July 16 at Hill Air Force Base in Utah.”

--“The assessment is understood to have looked at a number of alternatives including maintaining the existing Minuteman 3 missile arsenal through small-scale substitutions of aging components with newer ones; overhauling the Minuteman 3 with enhanced modular parts that can better respond to changing threats; and developing an entirely new class of intercontinental ballistic missile that could be placed in either a ‘super-hardened’ underground launch center or on special mobile transporters.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1pEf2ej

More to do - “The United States last week finished removing the last MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle) from its Minuteman 3 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs); these missiles will now each carry a single warhead,” writes Eryn MacDonald in All Things Nuclear. The move was a “step toward compliance with the New START treaty.”

--“De-MIRVing ICBMs is a step in the right direction, but there is more that the United States must do to reduce the risks of nuclear use. Taking these missiles off high alert would be a significant next step toward this goal.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1qqUbdW

Missile defense mistake - “On June 22, the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system successfully intercepted and destroyed a target missile in a test over the Pacific Ocean. The Obama administration has said that a successful test would trigger the addition of fourteen more long-range missile defense interceptors to thirty already in silos in Alaska and California—at an estimated cost of more than $1 billion. This would be a mistake,” write Robert Gard and Philip Coyle in The National Interest.

--“There’s an old adage, often applied to government: ‘Why is there never enough time to do it right, but always enough time to do it over?’ This describes the history over the past decade of the GMD system… The June 22 test was only the first successful GMD flight intercept test in the last five and a half years, that is, since the end of 2008.”

--“The batting average for the CE-II kill vehicle, which will sit atop the fourteen new interceptors planned for Alaska, is now one for three, or 33 percent. Not bad in baseball, but not good enough to justify putting more flawed interceptors in the ground.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1mMZq4Z

Quick turnaround - “On Sunday, North Korea again test-fired guided rockets into the sea. And again, within a mere 24 hours of the launch, the country trumpeted the success in its state media. That relatively quick turnaround is unusual for a country that sometimes waits days, or even weeks, to announce news.”

--“But the quick turnaround on the reports may have a purpose, coming just days ahead of a visit to Seoul by Chinese President Xi Jinping. North Korea is expected to figure high on the agenda during Mr. Xi’s meeting with his counterpart, South Korean President Park Geun-hye. Much has been made of the fact that Mr. Xi will break with tradition in visiting the South before its traditional ally in Pyongyang.” Full article by Jonathan Chen in The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1rPzm9B

Demands - “North Korea demanded Monday that rival South Korea cancel annual military drills with the U.S. this summer to promote reconciliation ahead of the Asian Games, which South Korea is hosting and North Korea has said it will enter,” reports the AP.

--“On Monday, the North’s defense commission said it wants South Korea-U.S. military drills planned for August to be scrapped immediately, saying they are a preparation for an attack. It didn’t say what it would do if the drills go ahead. The allies have said they have no intention of invading the North.” http://wapo.st/VzQeqF

Quick-hits:

--“Pantex handoff set for Tuesday” by Jim McBride in the Amarillo Globe-News. http://bit.ly/1nYyPj7

--“Iran Resumes Auto Exports to Russia” by Nasser Karimi for AP. http://abcn.ws/1mzJxdr

--“Pyongyang Express” by Victor Cha and Andy Lim for Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1wFyV4H

Events:

--“Iran Sanctions: What the U.S. Cedes in a Nuclear Deal.” Discussion with Suzanne Maloney, Kenneth Katzman, and Elizabeth Rosenberg; moderated by Robin Wright. July 8 from 9:30 to 11:00 at the U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lTst7K

--“Generation Prague: Innovation in International Security.” Annual Conference with Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), Sigrid Kaag, Frank Klotz, Rose Gottemoeller, Tom Countryman, Andrew Weber, and other. July 10 at the U.S. Department of State, East Auditorium, George Marshall Conference Center. More information and RSVP here. http://1.usa.gov/1nPgROR

--“Nuclear Centers of Excellence in Asia: Next Steps.” Discussion with Kazunori Hirao, Laura Holgate, and 11 other speakers. July 18 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 212-A/B Conference Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. RSVP by email to Robert Kim at rkim@csis.org