Former Israeli Nuclear Chief Supports Diplomacy with Iran, Opposes Military Action

May 8, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Israeli perspective - “Brigadier General (res.) Uzi Eilam, who for a decade headed the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, does not believe that Tehran is even close to having a bomb, if that is even what it really aspires to,” reports Ronen Bergman for Ynetnews. “The Iranian nuclear program will only be operational in another 10 years. Even so, I am not sure that Iran wants the bomb,” said Brig. Gen. Eilam.

--“According to reports, the steps Iran has taken are most significant, the primary step being the dilution of more than half of its enriched fuel...The main issues are still ahead of us, but it is definitely possible to be optimistic. I think we should give the diplomatic process a serious chance, alongside ongoing sanctions…”

--“Besides, what good would bombing do? It would only unite the Iranian people behind its government, and provide it with an incentive to continue the project, with far more resources. Bombing would achieve the direct opposite of what we desired," said Brig. Gen. Eilam. Full story here. http://bit.ly/RqIZPA

Tweet - @rethink_media: Bombing #Iran would achieve the opposite of what we desire - Israeli Gen Eilam #LetDiplomacyWork http://t.co/FLj19e6Hpg

Site tour - “U.N. inspectors visited a uranium mine in Iran and reached agreement on how to monitor a planned reactor, part of an effort to allay fears about Tehran's nuclear program, Iranian media said on Wednesday,” write Mehrdad Balali and Fredrik Dahl in Reuters. “The United States says Iran's readiness to tackle the IAEA's questions will be central to the success of efforts to reach a long-term diplomatic accord, which Tehran and the powers aim to do by late July.” Get the full story here. http://reut.rs/1jEv9DB

Free money pile - “A U.S. House committee may use an annual defense bill to order the establishment of a separate funding stream for a new ballistic-missile submarine,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Language authorizing the establishment of a distinct fund to pay for a planned fleet of strategic vessels to replace the Ohio-class submarine was included last week in the House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee mark-up of the fiscal 2015 defense authorization legislation… The subpanel is calling for the creation of a special fund for ‘obligation and expenditure only’ for the ‘advance procurement or construction of nuclear-powered strategic ballistic missile submarines.’ Funds would be deposited in the envisioned account beginning after fiscal 2017.”

--“Subcommittee member Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) is leading the effort to create a special fund out of concern that the Ohio-class submarine replacement program would otherwise consume too much of the Navy's shipbuilding budget… The Navy intends to begin building its first new ballistic-missile submarine in 2021. A total of 12 new strategic vessels are planned. The program is estimated to cost a total of $90 billion.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1nrPAEh

Justification - “The House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday approved a Democratic measure that forces the Pentagon to justify a new cruise missile project,” reports Martin Matishak for The Hill. “Rep. John Garamendi's (D-Calif.) amendment to the 2015 National Defense Authorization Act requires Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel to brief the panel on the Long-Range Standoff Weapon. The briefing would require the Pentagon to explain ‘why such a weapon is needed, including any potential redundancies with existing weapons,’ according to the amendment.”

--“The nuclear weapons-capable system is intended to replace the Air Force’s existing Air Launched Cruise Missile around 2030. The Defense Department will also need to detail the cost of the new weapon system and what warheads the missile will carry. In addition, Garamendi offered, and withdrew, a measure that would have directed the Government Accountability Office to examine the need to maintain all three legs of the U.S. nuclear triad: bomber aircraft, nuclear-capable submarines and intercontinental ballistic missiles.” Garamendi said he would seek to reintroduce the measure once the bill had reached the House floor. Full story here. http://bit.ly/1mGbFOi

Controlling Russia’s future arsenal - “Over the next decade, all Soviet-era ICBMs will be retired and replaced with a smaller force consisting of mainly five variants of one missile: the SS-27,” writes Hans M. Kristensen in a piece for the FAS Strategic Security Blog. “After more than a decade-and-a-half of introduction, the number of SS-27s now makes up a third of the ICBM force. By 2016, SS-27s will make up more than half of the force, and by 2024 all the Soviet-era ICBMs will be gone. The new force will be smaller and carry fewer nuclear warheads than the old, but a greater portion of the remaining warheads will be on missiles carried on mobile launchers.”

--“The big unknowns are just how many SS-27s Russia plans to produce and deploy, and how many new (RS-26 and Sarmat “heavy”) ICBMs will be introduced. Without the new systems or increased production of the old, Russia’s ICBM force would probably level out just below 250 missiles by 2024. In comparison, the U.S. Air Force plans to retain 400 ICBMs. This disparity and the existence of a large U.S. reserve of extra warheads that can be ‘uploaded’ onto deployed missiles to increase the arsenal if necessary drive top-heavy ICBM planning in the Russian military which seeks to maximize the number of warheads on each missile to compensate for the disparity and keep some degree of overall parity with the United States.”

--“This dilemma suggests the importance of reaching a new agreement to reduce the number deployed strategic warheads and missiles. A reduction of ‘up to one-third’ of the current force, as recently endorsed by the new U.S. nuclear employment strategy, would be a win for both Russia and the United States. It would allow both countries to trim excess nuclear capacity and save billions of dollars in the process… Trying to pursue new reductions in excessive and expensive nuclear forces and avoid counterproductive modernization programs is perhaps even more important now given the souring relations caused by the crisis in Ukraine. Don’t forget: even at the height of the Cold War it was possible – in fact essential – to reach nuclear arms control agreements.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1kOZa1v

ICBM accolade - “The Omaha Trophy is staying in Wyoming. A top military commander presented F.E. Warren Air Force Base’s 90th Missile Wing with the coveted award, which is given out annually to the top intercontinental ballistic missile wing in the country, during a ceremony Tuesday on base… The Cheyenne-based wing, which is also called the Mighty Ninety, operates and maintains 150 nuclear-tipped Minuteman III ICBMs.” F.E. Warren beat out “Montana’s Malmstrom Air Force Base and North Dakota’s Minot Air Force Base to claim the Omaha Trophy for the third consecutive year.”

--“The award, however, comes on the heels of a tumultuous year for F.E. Warren and the rest of the ICBM force. The Air Force recently fired several senior leaders at Malmstrom and ordered a review of operations at all three bases after it was discovered that 96 missileers at Malmstrom cheated on their monthly proficiency exams.” Trevor Brown has the story in the Wyoming Tribune Eagle. http://bit.ly/1gbGQgv

Nuclear exercises - “President Vladimir Putin on Thursday oversaw a military exercise involving Russia's nuclear forces amid escalating tensions over Ukraine,” AP reports. “Russian news wires said that the exercises simulated dealing a massive retaliatory nuclear strike in response to an enemy attack. The description of the exercise is unusually blunt, reflecting tensions with the West running high over Ukraine. As part of the maneuvers, a Topol intercontinental ballistic missile launched from the Plesetsk launch pad in northwestern Russia successfully hit a designated target on the Kura testing range on the far eastern Kamchatka peninsula, the military said. Two nuclear submarines of the Northern and Pacific Fleets, the Tula and the Podolsk, also fired intercontinental ballistic missiles.” Get the full story here. http://apne.ws/1oavXDv

Imminent test detection - “A U.S. military satellite recently detected signs of an ‘imminent’ test at North Korea's nuclear detonation site,” Global Security Newswire reports. An unidentified senior U.S. said that “a tarpaulin was spotted late last week covering one of the tunnel entrances at the Punggye-ri test site. Pyongyang employed a similar tactic to cloak its test preparations shortly before it carried out its most recent nuclear detonation in February 2013. South Korean officials said it is still not clear if North Korean workers have moved to begin sealing the tunnel entrance with dirt or cement, which is done to minimize the release of radioactive emissions following an underground atomic blast. That step is typically one of the last to come before a nuclear trial.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1nl8uzj

Quick-hits:

--“Seoul: North Korea Preparing for 4th Nuclear Test” by Hyung-Jin Kim for the AP. http://abcn.ws/Rux7vK

--“Moscow: U.S., NATO Missile Shield is ‘Anti-Russian’” in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1sqfcnm

--“Israel, U.S. divided over Iranian nuclear enrichment deal’ by Dan Williams in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1qifAGQ

Events:

--“Nuclear Weapons Materials Gone Missing: What Does History Teach?” Discussion with Henry Sokolski, Charles Ferguson, Edwin Lyman, and Jodi Lieberman. May 8 from 12:30-2:00 at the Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th St. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1fJSynz

--“Preventing WMD Terrorism: A Status Report.” Discussion with Andrew Semmel, Michelle Cann, and and Miles Pomper. May 8 at 3:30 in 1539 Longworth House Office Building. RSVP by email to monica.herman@mail.house.gov

--“The Countdown Begins: All You Need to Know About an Iran Nuclear Deal.” Discussion with Robert Einhorn, Alireza Nader, and Joseph Cirincione. Moderated by Colin Kahl. May 13 from 9:30 to 11:00 at the U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1o6UYwo

--“New Technologies on the Arms Control Front.” Discussion with Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller. May 13 at 5:00 at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Auditorium, second floor, 1200 New York Ave. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1juJm5O

--“The Role of Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Responding to the Crisis in Crimea.” Discussion /with Peter Doran and Kingston Reif. May 19 from 6:00 to 8:00 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1iUUxA6