Explaining Russia’s Missile Defense Response

On the radar: Moscow’s cool reaction; $1.2-$1.4 billion for GBIs; Reading tea leaves; Sen. Ayotte vs. the missile to nowhere; Iranian perspectives on negotiations; Sequestration’s squeeze; and “The Girls of Atomic City.”

March 20, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Moscow’s view - The Pentagon’s recent missile defense changes spurred optimism that the U.S. and Russia might have political space to open arms control negotiations. It might be too soon for such optimism, given “lingering Russian technical and political concerns about the nature and direction of the revised US missile defense plans,” write Nikolai Sokov and Miles Pomper.

--Sokov and Pomper explain the Russian position and suggest, conservatively, that the announcement may offer a window of opportunity for talks, but it’s unclear if Moscow is interested. Differences over other issues, like prompt global strike, and domestic political conditions might keep the U.S. and Russia from having the political will to reach an agreement. Full article from the Center for Nonproliferation Studies. http://bit.ly/WHQrGr

How much will they cost? - The deployment of 14 additional missile defense interceptors in Alaska could cost $1.2-$1.4 billion. That is slightly more than the $1 billion figure that the Pentagon provided to the press last Friday.

--Costs include $200 million for bringing a missile field online and $70-$80 million for each interceptor. George Lewis at Mostly Missile Defense runs the calculations. http://bit.ly/16Hvxdr

Interpretations - “I think it's possible [to reduce below New START levels], based upon assessments, based upon national objectives, based upon the military tasks we would be asked to achieve [...] I think we should explore whether further reductions are possible,” said Gen. Robert Kehler, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command, at a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee last week.

--Reading tea leaves: “While Gen. Kehler would not elaborate on the guidance review process because no final decisions have been made, he did note that STRATCOM was consulted and actually conducted parts of the review. He also stated that further cuts should be pursued with Russia and that the verification of further cuts is important,” interprets Kingston Reif at Nukes of Hazard. Full post here. http://owl.li/jfr43

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Missile to nowhere - Sen. Kelly Ayotte is pushing an amendment that would zero out funding for the Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS). The amendment proposes cancelling the $380 million for MEADS included in the current continuing resolution, and transferring “$250 million of those dollars to operations and maintenance accounts [...] that defense brass says will be hardest hit by” sequestration cuts.

--”Lawmakers have tried for years to end the program [...] The system, designed to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, has been plagued by cost spikes and performance issues,” reports John Bennett of Defense News.

--Ayotte: “It’s a sad day in the United States States that you can’t get a vote on a bipartisan, germane amendment that strikes funding for a missile to nowhere. I mean, it’s germane,” Sen. Ayotte said of the debate over the amendment in a recent interview. Full article here. http://owl.li/jfnjN

Video - Sen. Ayotte on the “missile to nowhere” on the Senate floor. http://owl.li/jfl0P

Tweet - @NTI_GSN: MEADS Funds in CR Must be Used to Terminate Program, Report Says .http://t.co/yVXRO708IZ

Imbalanced, in Iran’s view - In follow-up talks to last month’s nuclear negotiations between world powers and Iran, P5+1 member states clarified their proposal to Tehran. While the meeting “provided an opportunity for both [P5+1] and Iranian experts to explore each other's positions on a number of technical subjects,” interviews with Iranian officials suggest the offer does not provide adequate concessions in exchange for its demands, reports Scott Peterson of The Christian Science Monitor.

--“From our side, [the proposed] relief of the sanctions is not proportionate with what they are asking Iran to do. They are asking Iran to suspend 20 percent enrichment, and reduce the readiness of Fordow, which from our point of view is [the same as] shutting Fordow down. We argued that there is no balance between what they are asking, and what they are offering,” said an unnamed Iranian official close to the talks. Full story here. http://owl.li/jfxrL

Budget options - Discussing approaches for reducing the defense budget by curtailing or canceling select major weapons systems, the Congressional Budget Office said that "Policymakers could also elect to divest DoD of specific, capabilities, enabling it to halt acquisitions in those area.”

--“As another example, policymakers could decide to eliminate one or two legs of the, nuclear triad—consisting of submarine-launched ballistic, missiles, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and strategic, bombers—and avoid the impending costs of developing, and procuring replacements for those systems." Full report here. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/Youyv0

Unintended consequences - The Department of Energy will be laying off 235 of its employees and furloughing 2,500 more due to budget cuts. It is likely that cleanup efforts at the contaminated Hanford Nuclear Reservation will feel the effects of spending cuts, which could delay the site’s decontamination efforts, reports The Washington Post. Full story here. http://owl.li/jfvzZ

Tweet - @carnegienpp: The arguments in favor of nuclear weapons point to growing insecurities in Seoul that should not be ignored http://ow.ly/jd1Kv

Tweet - @BBCWorld: Analysis: Would #Israel ever launch a nuclear attack on #Iran? bbc.in/XoK5rA

Nork nuclear Walmart? - Most experts agree that it’s unlikely North Korea can build a warhead small enough to deploy on a missile. “The North, however, may be able to help other countries develop nuclear expertise right now, as it is believed to have done in the past,” writes Foster Klug of AP.

--"There's a growing technical capability and confidence to sell weapons and technology abroad, without fear of reprisal, and that lack of fear comes from (their) growing nuclear capabilities," said former State Department official Joel Wit. Full story here. http://bit.ly/ZKArRN

Events:

--”What Should Obama do on North Korea?” Victor Cha, CSIS; Gen. Walter Sharp, former Commander, U.S. Forces Korea; and Joseph DeTrani, former Special Envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea. March 21 9:00-10:30 a.m. @ CSIS. Details here. http://owl.li/j9ZzX

--"2013 Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Winter Conference.” Linton Brooks, former administrator, NNSA, and 18 other speakers. March 22-23. @ Univ. of California Washington Center. Details here (pdf). http://owl.li/iVIvo

--”The Impact of Sanctions on Tehran’s Nuclear Calculations.” Bijan Khajehpour, Atieh International; Reza Marashi and Trita Parsi, National Iranian American Council. March 26, 12:00-1:30 p.m. @ Atlantic Council. Details here. http://owl.li/iWWtD

--”Nuclear Priorities 2013.” Anita Friedt, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of Arms Control Verification and Compliance, Department of State. March 27, 12:30-1:30p.m. @ The American Security Project. Details here. http://owl.li/ja0JS

Dessert:

FYI - “Here’s a Reminder Not To Tell Your Foreign Lover U.S. Nuke Secrets.” Full story from Spencer Ackerman of Danger Room. http://bit.ly/147LCsY

Installing noble gas systems - The CTBTO installed a noble gas detection system - monitoring technology that can detect byproducts of nuclear test explosions in the atmosphere - directly on the roof of the organization’s Vienna headquarters. Watch their YouTube video explaining the system and how it works. http://bit.ly/10iocOq

Behind the bomb - In a new book The Girls of Atomic City: The Untold Story of the Women Who Helped Win World War II, author Denise Kiernan “tells the story of the Oak Ridge center of the Manhattan Project, a town of 70,000 workers - primarily women - who lived in a camp-like environment of propaganda, barbed wire, checkpoints, code words, and spies, while working a thousand different jobs.” Michelle Legro of Brain Pickings offers a review of the book here. http://owl.li/jfFiZ