Evolving Threat Assessments on Iran and North Korea

On the radar: DNI Clapper testimony; Uncertainty on future missile interceptor; Radionuclides not picked up from N. Korea test; Senate knowledge on arms control; New center at Brookings; and American life according to Kim.

March 13, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Testimony - Yesterday, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, testified on the newly released 2013 Worldwide Threat Assessment report. Nuclear highlights below.

--”We believe North Korea has already taken initial steps towards fielding [road-mobile ICBMs], although it remains untested. It also used its Taepodong-2 launch vehicle to put a satellite in orbit in December, thus demonstrating its long-range missile technology. These developments have been accompanied with extremely aggressive public rhetoric toward the United States and the Republic of Korea.”

--”Iran continues to develop technical expertise in a number of areas, including uranium enrichment, nuclear reactors and ballistic missiles, from which it could draw if it decided to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons.”

--”These technical advancements strengthen our assessment that Tehran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity to produce nuclear weapons. This makes the central issue its political will to do so. Such a decision will reside with the supreme leader, and at this point we don't know if he'll eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.” Full testimony here. http://owl.li/iRYs

Side-by-side - When compared to last year’s Worldwide Threat Assessment, “this year’s edition borrowed liberally from the language used last year, [however] there were some interesting changes.” Greg Thielmann of Arms Control Now offers a side-by-side analysis of the two reports.

--Iran: Both reports “determine that Iran has the capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so.” New report says Iran is in a “better position to produce weapon-grade uranium using its declared facilities and uranium stockpiles,” and there is “increasing concern” with the regime’s “means and motivation to develop an…intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).”

--North Korea: Despite the North’s recent test and provocations, the new report “mostly uses the same language as the 2012 assessment.” New report uses softer language to describe the intel community’s understanding of the circumstances under which DPRK would resort to a nuclear attack on the US and confidence in the North’s pursuit of a road-mobile ICBM. Full analysis from here. http://owl.li/iRSof

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SM-3 block maybe? - “The reality is that with the underfunding of our [budget] requests from Congress for FY 2012 and the continuing resolution, our ability to deploy the [SM-3 2B interceptor] has slipped at least two years,” said Undersecretary of Defense for Policy James Miller at a missile defense conference organized by the Atlantic Council. He said that DoD is looking at whether to move forward with the advanced interceptor, which is envisioned as part of a plan to defend the US and Europe from ICBMs launched from the Middle East.

--Independent and governmental analyses have raised doubts about the interceptor’s technical feasibility, affordability, and desirability. Rachel Oswald at Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/WaCTTG

Tweet - @camanpour: #Iran Supreme Leader Advisor tells me there IS a route to direct talks with the USA: on.cnn.com/YZb8vW

Without a trace - A Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization spokesperson said the agency’s monitoring system has not yet detected radioactive traces from last month’s North Korean nuclear test. Without the traces, it will be “impossible” to know whether the device tested used enriched uranium or plutonium as the fissile core.

--While other sensors picked up the test blast, the failure to detect radionuclide particles could be a result of North Korean efforts to prevent their release. Fredrik Dahl of Reuters has the story. http://owl.li/iRPb3

Report - “Nuclear Weapons and U.S.-China Relations: A Way Forward,” a Report of the PONI Working Group on U.S.-China Nuclear Dynamics. Elbridge Colby and Abraham Denmark, Co-chairs. John Warden, Executive Director. http://bit.ly/ZmCN9c

Institutional knowledge - Last week, the Senate defeated a bill intended to eliminate the Senate’s National Security Working Group (NSWG), a “bipartisan mechanism intended to create an official role for senators to serve as observers to official U.S. delegations negotiating on issues relating to nuclear security, missile defense cooperation, and controls on the spread of [WMD] technologies.”

--The group, which “provides an institutional means of preserving the Senate’s institutional knowledge about nuclear and other security issues,” is particularly important now, given the number of senior legislators with expertise in nuclear issues that recently left the Senate. Op-ed from Nickolas Roth and Janne Nolan in The Hill. http://owl.li/iS1pY

Tweet - @IranPrimer: Timeline: Sporadic and Sometimes Hostile U.S.-#Iran Encounters. @TheWilsonCenter http://bit.ly/ZJVx4J

Brookings - The Brookings Institution announced today unveiled its Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence. “The new center will be unique in addressing defense, cybersecurity, arms control and intelligence challenges in a comprehensive manner, seeking not just to explore key emerging security issues, but also how they cross traditional fields and domains.”

--Starting roster for the Center includes: Director Peter Singer, Defense Policy team lead by Michael O’Hanlon, Intelligence Project lead by Bruce Riedel with Paul Pillar and John McLaughlin, Arms Control Initiative led by Steven Pifer with Robert Einhorn, and a new Cybersecurity project with Ian Wallace, Noah Shachtman and more. Announcement here. http://bit.ly/ZKk9dA

Tweet - @CarnegieEndow: Register to attend the 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. April 8 & 9 in Washington, DC: http://bit.ly/W0NdKn

Events:

--”Strategic Stability: The Solution, the Problem, or the Cause of Confusion?” James Acton, Matthew Rojansky and Christopher Ford. March 14th 9:30-11:00 a.m. @ Carnegie Endowment. RSVP here. http://owl.li/iKw2U

--”Strategy, Not Math: The Emerging Consensus on National Security in an Era of Austerity.” Barry Blechman, Steve Ellis, and Nora Bensahel. March 14th 12:00 p.m. @ Cato Institute. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/izRKO

--”Stability and Deterrence in South Asia.” Paul Kapur, Naval Postgraduate School. March 14, 12:30-2:00 p.m. @ National Defense University, 300 Fifth Ave., Lincoln Hall, Room 1107, Fort McNair. Register by email: Nima.Gerami@ndu.edu.

--”Sustaining U.S. Nuclear Forces on a Tight Budget.” Barry Blechman, Russell Rumbaugh, Tom Collina, and Daryl Kimball. March 19th from 9:30-11:00 a.m. @ Carnegie. Details and RSVP. http://bit.ly/XUNrVs

--P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom and United States) technical experts continue talks with Iran on its nuclear program. Istanbul. March 18-19.

Dessert:

Pyongyang’s propagandist projections - A newly released propaganda video from the hermit kingdom, offers its people a glimpse into American life.

--”According to the video: there are no more birds in the U.S., as they’ve all been eaten by the starving masses...Most Americans are entitled to a single cup of coffee daily, made from snow. [There’s an] epidemic of Americans ‘buying guns to kill each other, especially children.” Perhaps the video is a projection of the North’s own societal ills, or maybe its based on a depiction of American life through the eyes of recent visitor, Dennis Rodman. Spencer Ackerman at Danger Room has the story. http://owl.li/iS4qn