The Enormous Cost and Scope of Nuclear Modernization Programs

On the radar: Dana Priest on the nuclear complex; Consider the B-61; Planning armageddon, then and now; the Next artificial Iran redline is already gone; Nonpro under the sequester; Radar announced; and a Rogue nuclear submarine attempts to hold Thursdays hostage.

September 17, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Costly overhaul - “The U.S. nuclear arsenal, the most powerful but indiscriminate class of weapons ever created, is set to undergo the costliest overhaul in its history, even as the military faces spending cuts to its conventional arms programs at a time of fiscal crisis,” writes Dana Priest for The Washington Post.

--Priest’s lengthy article looks at the exorbitant costs of operating and overhauling the nuclear arsenal and its associated production complex, giving the reader an inside view of the complex and Washington’s nuclear decision-making. Neglect, cost increases, delays, and mismanagement abound. Full article here. http://wapo.st/QwroPJ

B-61 costs and needs - The project to overhaul the B-61 nuclear bomb has been plagued with cost overruns and now could cost $10 billion. Writes Dana Priest in part II of her nuclear series, “The B61 provides a case study in the expense and innovations driving the ambitious effort to maintain the nation’s nuclear defenses at a time of fiscal constraints and a shift away from reliance on nuclear deterrence.”

--”The soaring cost has rippled through other modernization programs. To try to keep the entire stockpile overhaul within budget, the administration delayed refurbishing two other aging warheads...” Full story at The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/QTRyhE

Factchecker - Greg Mello at the Los Alamos Study Group goes point by point through Dana Priest’s articles on the nuclear complex and argues it mischaracterizes the situation. http://bit.ly/PsrJDJ

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How to fight a nuclear war - One of the most controversial Cold War planning documents has just been declassified. At the heights of the Cold War in 1980, President Carter signed a directive (PD-59) that lowered the U.S. threshold for fighting a nuclear war. Inside and outside of government at the time, many argued that the directive would aggravate U.S.-Soviet tension and “raise pressures for launch-on-warning in a crisis.” William Burr in Foreign Policy explains the newly declassified directive and provides context.

--”Perhaps even more remarkable than this guidance is the fact that, although the Obama administration is conducting a review of U.S. nuclear targeting guidance, key concepts behind PD-59 still drive U.S. policy to this day.” http://bit.ly/StQSwr

--Read PD-59 at The National Security Archive. http://bit.ly/QfZoPV

Sober analysis - Last week a new report said a U.S. attack on the Iran could delay Iran’s program a few years, but could risk engulfing the Middle East in a regional war. Writes The New York Times editorial board, “The significance of the report by The Iran Project is not just its sober analysis but the nearly three dozen respected national security experts from both political parties who signed it.” http://nyti.ms/QjLFdZ

Quote - “I like kitties and puppies and little animals,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin to NYT reporter Masha Gessen. http://nyti.ms/QTJBc9

Redlining - The public spat over where/whether the U.S. and Israel should set next redline for Iran’s nuclear program continues. Some argue the new redline for Iran should be set at “a bomb’s worth” of 20% enriched uranium.” As a post at Arms Control Wonk notes, “They’re already there.”

--Quipping about the setting of another “artificial threshold of capability,” the author does the math to show that Iran already has enough material to fulfill the breakout scenario some officials reportedly fear is coming over the coming months. http://bit.ly/QU0XFX

Timeline - “Iran is nuclear capable,” writes Joe Cirincione at Huffington Post. “But Iran does not have a bomb now. U.S. intelligence officials have high confidence that Iranian leaders have not made the decision to build a bomb.”

--Cirincione provides analysis from the recent Iran Project report showing Iran’s timeline to a weapon and the actions that could be taken to convince Iran to not pursue one. http://huff.to/O8V09T

Tweet - @MicahZenko: Netanyahu said Iran is 6 to 7 months from a nuclear weapon. 6 1/2 months from today is exactly April Fool's Day. Now I get it.

Report - “Nonstrategic nuclear weapons, 2012” by Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. (pdf) http://bit.ly/UfyGIr

Sequester - If Congress does change course from the law it passed last year mandating automatic budget cuts, nearly all Defense programs will see a 9.4% cut over the next 10 years, according to the White House Office of Management and Budget.

--”That would mean $65 million annual reductions in funding for threat reduction operations intended to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,” writes Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/RYgl60

Radar to Japan - The U.S. and Japan formally announced an agreement to deploy another X-band missile defense radar on Japanese soil. The radar is intended to help defend against North Korean missiles, but also has some view of missiles that launch from China. Thom Shanker at The New York Times has the story of the announcement. http://nyti.ms/QwDHeX

Last Resort - ABC’s new fall show “Last Resort” features a U.S. nuclear-armed submarine gone rogue after refusing an order to nuke Pakistan. Drama ensues. Watch the full episode here before the show’s premiere on Sept. 27. http://yhoo.it/Styp39