Duration a Sticking Point and Possible Solution for Iran Deal

July 7, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka

Timing - “Negotiators in the ongoing talks in Vienna over Iran's nuclear program appear to be looking at one of the most contentious points of discussion as a possible route out of their impasse,” writes Paul Richter in the Los Angeles Times. “The issue is the duration of the deal. Iran and the six world powers at the negotiating table have been far apart on this ‘sunset clause,’ with Iran wanting the comprehensive deal to last only five years, and the United States and allies wanting to stretch it for two decades or longer.”

--“As talks have resumed in Vienna this week, Iranian, American and Russian negotiators have begun emphasizing in public comments that however difficult the terms of the deal appear, they will only last for a limited period. Then Iran will be free to pursue its nuclear ambitions, like any other signatory of the Nonproliferation Treaty, the accepted standard for nuclear activities, they say.”

--“What choices they make after they get to normal -- that is, after a long duration of an agreement, when they will be treated as any other nonnuclear weapons state under the [Nonproliferation Treaty] -- will, of course, be their choice," a senior U.S. official said. Full article here. http://lat.ms/Vzdjto

Reducing demands - “Iran has reduced demands for the size of its future nuclear enrichment program in talks with world powers although Western governments are urging Tehran to compromise further,” write Louis Charbonneau and Parisa Hafezi in Reuters. “Tehran's shift relates to the main sticking point in the talks - the number of uranium enrichment centrifuges Iran will maintain if a deal is reached to curb its nuclear program in exchange for a gradual end of sanctions.” Get the full story here. http://reut.rs/1jNpyYP

Tweet - @barbaraslavin1: #Iran Weighs U.S.-Trained Economist as Its New #UN Envoy. via @BloombergNews http://bloom.bg/1jX2DKJ

Deal implementation - “European Union chief diplomat Catherine Ashton met with International Atomic Energy Agency head Yukiya Amano to discuss how United Nations monitors would oversee a possible deal between world powers and Iran,” writes Jonathan Tirone in Bloomberg. Full story here. http://bloom.bg/1mAPMUa

India’s role - “India is seeking membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a 48-nation body established 40 years ago to ensure that civilian trade in nuclear materials is not diverted for military purposes, as was done by India itself. Membership would greatly enhance the acceptance of India as a nuclear weapons state and give it a say in how countries trade in nuclear-related exports.”

--“The application, which was discussed at a meeting in Buenos Aires last month, should not be granted until India proves itself willing to take a leading role in halting the spread of the world’s most lethal weapons...If India wants to be part of the nuclear suppliers group, it needs to sign the treaty that prohibits nuclear testing, stop producing fissile material, and begin talks with its rivals on nuclear weapons containment,” writes The New York Times in an editorial. http://nyti.ms/1n0pkxq

Modi’s nukes - “There is one crucial topic on which [India’s new Prime Minister Narendra Modi] has not been making much noise at all: India’s nuclear deterrent,” writes Benjamin Weiss in Foreign Policy.

--The author examines India’s nuclear posture and offers five questions for bringing India’s doctrine up to speed, including: “Is ‘credible minimum deterrent’ still an appropriate characterization of India’s nuclear posture?” and “Will India more energetically and creatively engage with multilateral arms control bodies?” Full report here. http://atfp.co/1jO9XZa

Reengaging the North - “This week, Chinese President Xi Jinping visits South Korean President Park Geun-Hye in Seoul, and next week, Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew will meet with Chinese leaders in Beijing,” writes Robert Einhorn in The National Interest. “These meetings provide an opportunity for the three countries to consider next steps on the vexing problem of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs—and in particular, to discuss whether and under what conditions to resume multilateral talks on the denuclearization of the DPRK.”

--“U.S. policy toward North Korea is dead in the water. This is not a particular criticism of the Obama administration. U.S. policy toward the DPRK for the last quarter century has essentially failed. Of course, some problems don’t have solutions, at least not at a price we are willing to pay. The North Korea nuclear issue may be one of them. Perhaps the best we can do is manage the problem—limit the damage as much as possible.”

--Einhorn offers a series of steps where the U.S. could work with China, South Korea and other regional partners to test North Korea’s willingness to return to productive talks and provide continued incentives to the North for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1vS5UQJ

Joint affirmation - “The leaders of China and South Korea sent a strong message to North Korea on Thursday, saying they were united in their opposition to the development of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula, though they fell short on how they would pursue that goal,” reports Jane Perlez in The New York Times. Full story here. http://nyti.ms/1j8CSvY

Cooperation is key - “Republicans and Democrats alike have traditionally understood that investing in nuclear security is a small price to pay compared with the devastating economic, political and social costs of nuclear terrorism,” write Nickolas Roth and Robert Gard in The National Interest. “That’s why U.S. cooperation with Russia and other countries to secure vulnerable nuclear material has enjoyed bipartisan support.”

--“Unfortunately, the House Energy and Water Appropriations Subcommittee—whose chairman, Congressman Mike Simpson (R-ID), acknowledged in April that nuclear security cooperation with Russia was ‘in our own interest, not just Russian interest and the world's interest’—recently approved a bill that would block this cooperation. Citing the situation in Ukraine, his Committee recommended stripping funding for nuclear-security cooperation between the United States and Russia...If members of Congress are serious about reducing the risk of nuclear terrorism, then they must continue supporting nuclear-security cooperation with Russia.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1iYT9n4

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: Eduard Shevardnadze, ex-USSR FM under Gorbachev who helped negotiate n-arms cuts w/U.S. and bring an end to the Cold War has passed away.

Mistakes were made - “Los Alamos National Laboratory says it made mistakes in packing waste that has been linked to a radiation leak at the government's underground nuclear waste dump, but it remains unclear if the violations or its use of organic cat litter to absorb moisture played a role in the accident.”

--“In a letter released by state regulators Thursday, lab officials told the New Mexico Environment Department that their internal probe of the handling of the toxic waste from decades of nuclear bomb building has uncovered several violations of its Hazardous Waste Facility Permit. The lab says it failed to follow proper procedures in making the switch from inorganic to organic litter and in its lack of follow up on waste that tests showed to be highly acidic.” Read the full report from Jeri Clausing for the AP here. http://apne.ws/1oBeTEX

Restoring habitability - “A New Mexico nuclear-waste facility is planning the next stage of its response to two accidents there in February,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The Energy Department said crews would seek to restore ‘habitability’ to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, which has remained largely off-limits to personnel since contaminants escaped there and spread to 22 workers.”

--“Once employees perform initial underground safety checks, they will begin conducting additional radiological surveys, restoring mine habitability, removing soot from the Feb. 5 truck fire, and performing ground control and monitoring," the Energy Department said in a statement. Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1kwdn2K

Still chaotic - “Two years after an 82-year-old nun was able to infiltrate a nuclear weapons site in Tennessee, the U.S. approach to securing such facilities remains ‘chaotic,’ a government report released this week suggests,” writes Douglas Guarino in Global Security Newswire.

--“GAO analysts said the agency's lack of a ‘clear vision’ since the July 2012 incident -- in which the nun and two fellow peace activists went undetected as they approached stores of bomb-grade uranium -- could prove problematic” Full article here. http://bit.ly/TNHify

Quick-hits:

--“The U.S. should seek a grand bargain with Iran” by Najmedin Meshkati in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1m8EEgg

--“North Korea’s Fear of Hollywood” by Paul Fischer in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1qbzuzi

--“Japan Joins the Amendment to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material” from the International Atomic Energy Agency. http://bit.ly/TNFVh1

--“Feds to clean site of 1976 'Atomic Man' accident” by Nicholas Geranios for the AP. http://apne.ws/1rHkMDV

Events:

--“Iran Sanctions: What the U.S. Cedes in a Nuclear Deal.” Discussion with Suzanne Maloney, Kenneth Katzman, and Elizabeth Rosenberg; moderated by Robin Wright. July 8 from 9:30 to 11:00 at the U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lTst7K

--“The Future of International Civilian Nuclear Cooperation.” House Foreign Affairs Committee Hearing with Henry Sokolski, Daniel Lipman, and Leonard Spector. July 10 at 9:45 at 2172 Rayburn House Office Building. Webcast on committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1kl9XQe

--2014 National Public Opinion Survey of Iranian Americans Findings. Briefing and discussion with Alireza Nader, Barbara Slavin, and Alex Vatanka. July 10 from 12:00-1:30 at H-137, The Capitol. RSVP by email to Adrienne Varkiani at adrienne@paaia.org or (202) 828-8370

--“Generation Prague: Innovation in International Security.” Annual Conference with Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), Sigrid Kaag, Frank Klotz, Rose Gottemoeller, Tom Countryman, Andrew Weber, and other. July 10 at the U.S. Department of State, East Auditorium, George Marshall Conference Center. More information and RSVP here. http://1.usa.gov/1nPgROR

--“Nuclear Centers of Excellence in Asia: Next Steps.” Discussion with Kazunori Hirao, Laura Holgate, and 11 other speakers. July 18 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 212-A/B Conference Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. RSVP by email to Robert Kim at rkim@csis.org

Dessert:

Soviet-era comic - “If you’re interested in military comics, this ’70s-era Soviet comic about life aboard a ballistic missile submarine is essential. Humor Northern Submarine Fleet is an outrageous comic. There’s patriotism, some remarkable illustrations—and also an acidly subversive presentation of Soviet naval life.”

--“The specific vessel in the comic appears to be a nuclear-powered (and nuclear-armed) Project 667SU submarine, known in the West by its NATO class designation Yankee. The date June 17, 1972...the bulk of the comic is a psychedelic trip into the claustrophobic, high-pressure environment of the Cold War.” Robert Beckhusen has the illustrations and analysis in Medium. http://bit.ly/1lNItm1

Cheerleader diplomacy - “North Korea said on Monday it will send cheerleaders along with its athletes to the Asian Games in the South as a gesture of peace after weeks of firing rockets and fiery rhetoric,” write Jack Kim and Nick Macfie in Reuters. “North Korea, which regularly threatens to destroy its neighbor in a sea of flames, is sending 150 athletes to the Games in the South Korean port city of Incheon which begin on Sept. 19.”

--“The North's cheerleaders have proved a huge attraction in rare appearances in the South since the war, with tightly choreographed routines and messages of peace and unification. ‘It is necessary to put an end to all kinds of calumnies and vituperation that foster misunderstanding and distrust among the fellow countrymen,’ the North said in a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency.” Full piece here. http://reut.rs/1ziPPbo