A Delicate Balance: Sanctions and the Iran Deal

On the radar: Sanctions held off; Sanctions enforced; Don’t spoil the deal; Limiting reductions; Bloody politics in North Korea; and Lessons from the Cobalt-60 theft.

December 13, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Geoff Wilson

Sanctions held at bay - “After top US officials testified Thursday on the Iran nuclear deal signed in Geneva last month, [Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD)], chair of the Senate Banking panel, appeared to speak for the majority of the body when he cautiously endorsed the Obama administration’s call that Congress hold off on new Iran sanctions for now, but warned that lawmakers would act swiftly if Iran and six world powers are unable to reach a comprehensive nuclear agreement in negotiations over the next six months.” Laura Rozen of Al-Monitor reports. http://bit.ly/1c1fb4a

Sanctions imposed - The U.S. sanctioned 19 Iranian companies and individuals involved with Iran’s nuclear program. This spurred angry remarks from Iranian officials, who stressed that imposing such sanctions violate the spirit of the breakthrough interim agreement, and brought Iran to interrupt technical talks in Geneva.

--Treasury and State Department officials said that the move did not violate the terms of the agreement and that it instead represented, “our continued efforts to expose and disrupt those supporting Iran's nuclear program or seeking to evade our sanctions.” Reuters reports. http://reut.rs/1bLrD6p

Sanctions as sabotage - “If Congress isn't careful, it will sabotage our country's best opportunity to prevent war and a nuclear-armed Iran. The campaign to establish excessive new sanctions risks blowing up the preliminary deal reached to limit Iran's nuclear program before it's even gone into effect,” writes Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ) and Kate Gould in an article for U.S. News & World Report.

--“This deal could be the beginning of the end of the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran or of another devastating U.S. war in the Middle East. That's worth taking time to consider before we start making unrealistic demands or undermining our negotiators' position.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1bBx4At

Restricting reductions - The compromise defense authorization bill, just passed by the House and headed to the Senate, includes restrictions on arms control and nuclear reductions. The bill partially restricts funding for reducing nuclear weapons in compliance with the New START treaty until the Secretary of Defense provides a detailed plan for planned nuclear reductions. The bill also limits the Administration’s ability to convert B52s into conventional-only roles or take ICBMs offline, contingent on the plan. Douglas Guarino of Global Security Newswire assesses the new bill. http://bit.ly/1cG9ZBh

Jang executed - Jang Song Thaek, powerful uncle of North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, was tried for treason and executed yesterday in one of the biggest signs of political upheaval in decades for North Korea. AP explains how Jang rose to power and the dramatic events leading to his removal and execution. http://n.pr/1eaD3Ea

Bloody politics - “The speed with which Mr. Kim — or whoever else was engineering Mr. Jang’s downfall — hurried to execute him and make it public was a sign of instability and a lack of confidence in Mr. Kim’s grip on power, the analysts said,” writes Choe Sang-Hun of The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1bLxOY5

What’s in the budget deal? - “The Murray-Ryan deal softens the decline in defense spending, likely stabilizes defense spending well above historical levels, and begins the process of one of the reforms many thought would be the toughest politically— transferring spending from personnel costs to operations and modernization. That’s a heck of a present for the defense establishment this holidays,” writes Russell Rumbaugh of Stimson. Full analysis here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1hRaRGV

Cobalt-60 - After the theft of a highly radioactive cobalt-60 in Mexico earlier this month, Mexico quickly informed the IAEA of the incident. Mexico was not required to do so, but its early alert greatly helped law enforcement respond to the incident.

--“Rather than waiting until a hazardous radioactive source escapes control in a serious way, the international community should codify the good global citizenship Mexico has shown, either by creating a new instrument or amending the current Convention on Early Notification,” write George Moore and Miles Pomper in an analysis of the cobalt-60 incident. Full post in The Bulletin. http://bit.ly/18ZwkuJ

Tweet - @wellerstein: NEW POST: Do films of nuclear detonations belong in art galleries? | Art, Destruction, Entropy. http://t.co/AyIqeUobde

Quick hits:

--”Lawmakers' Retort to Obama's 'Flexible' Nuclear Trade Policy: Potential New Limits” by Elaine Grossman of Global Security newswire. http://bit.ly/1cGbOhv

--”Missing American in Iran Was on Unapproved Mission” report Matt Apuzzo and Adam Goldman of AP. http://bit.ly/JmTaAZ

--”Why the Iran Deal is Good for U.S.” by Laicie Heeley for CNN. http://cnn.it/18q3tPQ

Event:

--”The U.S. and Iran: A Breakthrough Moment” Discussion with Bob Einhorn, Hossein Mousavian and Thomas Pickering at the Asia Society in New York. Dec. 17th from 6:00-7:30pm. RSVP and webcast here. http://bit.ly/18IYcAQ