Data Shows Growing Disparity Between US and Russian Forces

On the radar: Slow START producing US-Russia disparity; Doomsday caucus blocking Air Force decisions; Furloughing the sanctioneers; Vali Nasr on negotiations; Radioactive waste is expensive; Preventing nuclear terrorism; and If the bombs or shockwaves don’t kill you, the radiation might.

October 3, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

New START implementation - The latest data from the New START treaty shows that Russia has reduced its deployed nuclear forces while US warhead levels increased. The U.S. isn’t building up, and this uptick is likely an anomaly of treaty counting rules. It shows, however, just how slow the U.S. is implementing nuclear reductions, writes Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists.

--”Two and a half years into the New START Treaty, the United States has still not begun reducing its operational nuclear forces...For reasons that are unclear (but probably have to do with opposition in Congress), the administration has chosen to reduce its operational nuclear forces later rather than sooner,” writes Kristensen. This will lead to a disparity between reduced Russian force levels and plateaued US force levels.

--Illustrating the problem: “Unless the United States significantly reduces its ICBM force beyond the 400 or so planned under the New START Treaty, and unless Russia significantly increases deployment of new missiles beyond what it is currently doing, the United States could end up having nearly as many launchers in the ICBM-leg of its Triad as Russia will have in its entire Triad.” http://bit.ly/GAVR0k

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Save our nukes - A group of senators with ICBM bases in their states is trying to get the Pentagon to block an environmental impact statement on basing options for ICBMs. The Air Force requested the study to facilitate its decisions about the future nuclear force structure. The Senators don’t want such decisions, because nuclear weapons operations bring millions of dollars to their states’ economies. The Great Falls Tribune adds data to the old saying, all nuclear weapons are parochial. http://gftrib.com/18TI2SG

Sanctions shutdown - As part of the endless consequences of government shutdown, “the Treasury Department has furloughed approximately 90 percent of the employees in its Office of Terrorist Financing and Intelligence (TFI), which is responsible for the monitoring of illicit activities and enforcement of sanctions related to several countries, including Iran, Syria, and North Korea,” reports Josh Rogin for The Daily Beast.

--”As a result, OFAC is unable to sustain its core functions of: issuing new sanctions designations against those enabling the governments of Iran and Syria as well as terrorist organizations, WMD proliferators, narcotics cartels, and transnational organized crime groups; investigating and penalizing sanctions violations; issuing licenses to authorize humanitarian and other important activities that might otherwise be barred by sanctions; and issuing new sanctions prohibitions and guidance,” said a Treasury spokesman. http://thebea.st/1bzE0Bd

Diplomatic responsibility - "It would be diplomatic malpractice of the worst order not to examine every possibility of whether or not you can achieve that before you ask people to take military action and do what you have to do to prevent it,” said Sec. John Kerry about the importance of engaging with Iran find a diplomatic solution that keeps Iran from the bomb. Matthew Lee of AP has the story. http://apne.ws/172DqH1

Nasr on Iran talks - “Expect no grand bargain with Iran in the short run, but rather, the lifting of specific sanctions in exchange for concrete steps to slow down Iran’s nuclear program and open it to international scrutiny. That would be an important first step, which could build bilateral trust and give diplomacy the impetus it needs to succeed.,” writes Vali Nasr in The New York Times in an analysis of the context for negotiations with Iran. http://nyti.ms/1hnuDoO

Stalled waste project - Los Alamos’ project to replace its radioactive liquid waste treatment plant is $128 million over budget and a decade behind schedule. “Problems at the plant are the latest in a long series of behind-schedule, over-budget projects,” writes John Fleck for The ALbuquerque Journal. http://bit.ly/GAYi2U

Preventing nuclear terrorism - “Former top Russian and U.S. officials contend in a new report their countries should do more to counter feared nuclear-terrorism attacks by being willing to share sensitive technical data and to help other nations improve their fissile-material-protection standards,” write Rachel Oswald for Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1aOpeFQ

--Full Report: “Steps to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism: Recommendations Based on the U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment” From Harvard’s Belfer Center and the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies. (pdf) http://hvrd.me/16IqNI3

Tweet - @daxe: “American Has 20 B-2 Stealth Bombers—Guess How Many Can Fly Right Now?” http://bit.ly/GBbd47

Talking talks - ”US Experts, NKorean Officials Hold Informal Talks” from AP. http://abcn.ws/16kyFNu

Events:

--"Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century." Former Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov speaks at Georgetown. October 3 at 6:00pm. Details and RSVP. http://bit.ly/19iqOwd

--"Preventing Nuclear War in South Asia: Unprecendented Challenges, Unprecedented Solutions" Discussion with George Perkovich. October 3rd at 6:00pm in Harvard’s NYE Conference Center. Details here. http://hvrd.me/19QnKs5

--”Getting to Yes With Iran” Discussion with George Perkovich. October 4th from 9:30-11:00am at Harvard’s Belfer Center Library. Details here. http://hvrd.me/14XROUt

--50th anniversary of JFK signing the Limited Test Ban Treaty. October 7th. http://bit.ly/18FCzPa

--”Rethinking U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy” Discussion with Benjamin Friedman, Christopher Preble and Laura Odato of CATO Institute. Oct. 8th at noon in the Rayburn House Office Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1dS3evw

Dessert:

Project Pluto - Weaponeers had a heyday in the early Cold War, inventing new and terrifying machines. Perhaps one of the most creative was “the Flying Crowbar.” This project’s goal was to build a cruise missile - driven in part by an unshielded nuclear reactor - that could fly mach-3 for extended periods at tree-top level, spewing radioactive exhaust over the countryside before raining nuclear bombs on a designated target.

--This bomb ”had so many ways to kill you, it was like a death buffet: should I die in the nuclear blasts of the bombs themselves, or just let the shockwave of the overpassing missile kill me? Maybe I'll just wait for the radiation sickness as this thing circles endlessly overhead, like a colossal demonic robot vulture. It's so hard to choose!” writes Jason Torchinsky for Jalopnik. http://bit.ly/15NUWj1