Comprehensive Iran Nuclear Agreement Drafting to Begin Next Month

April 21, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Long-term settlement - “Iran and world powers will begin work drafting a long-term settlement of Iran's disputed nuclear program at expert-level talks in New York next month,” write Michelle Moghtader and Mehrdad Balali in Reuters. “During the May 5-9 meeting, the P5+1 world powers and Iran will start ‘writing draft of comprehensive agreements which will be a complex and difficult work,” said senior nuclear negotiator Abbas Araghchi. Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1lvoxdS

Concern addressed - “Iran will redesign its Arak heavy water reactor to greatly limit the amount of plutonium it can make, the country's vice president said Saturday, marking a major concession from the Islamic Republic in negotiations with world powers over its contested nuclear program… Iranian state television quoted Salehi, who heads the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, as saying that Iran has proposed to redesign Arak to produce one-fifth of the plutonium initially planned for it. He said that will eliminate concerns the West has that Iran could use the plutonium produced at Arak to build a nuclear weapon.”

--”Redesigning the reactor will delay its launch by about three years, Salehi said. He said instead of uranium oxide, the reactor will use low enriched uranium. Changing the fuel is part of the technical modifications that greatly reduce the amount of plutonium made by the reactor.” Read the full report from the AP here. http://n.pr/1jv0yG7

Talks in NYC - “Iran's state news agency is reporting that the next round of expert-level talks over its contested nuclear program will be held in New York.” Read the full report from the AP here. http://abcn.ws/REXOi0

Give the deal a chance - “The United States could be on the verge of securing a historic agreement over Iran’s nuclear program, one that verifiably limits it and opens the door to further cooperation between the two countries. Yet with a diplomatic victory on the horizon, the rhetoric of those who have long opposed any diplomatic resolution is reaching dizzying heights of disingenuousness,” write Tyler Cullis and Jamal Abdi for CNN. “[The] interim deal with Iran that Kerry brokered in October (which Sen. Robert Menendez in effect tried to kill by proposing a new round of sanctions) doubled the breakout timeline to two to three months. Yet even as the United States closes in on a final deal that could extend that timeline to six to twelve months (while at the same time dramatically improving our ability to detect any attempt by Iran to cheat on its nonproliferation obligations) Menendez is claiming that this is just not good enough.”

--”This begs the question: what is the alternative offered by opponents of diplomacy? After all, if the Menendez approach (sanctions, sanctions, sanctions!) brought us a mere month away from Iran being able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb, critics of negotiations should have something better up their sleeve… Opponents of diplomacy would do well to reflect on the reality that as the United States has tried to leverage sanctions against Iran, Tehran has responded by ramping up the production of centrifuges. As a result, the U.S. has long been in need of a new direction in its policy toward Iran. Tentatively, but unmistakably, the Obama Administration has pursued a new approach – one that has brought us the first freeze on Iran’s nuclear program in a decade and which reports suggests have led to significant concessions on Iran’s Arak reactor. If such a deal is not good enough for some in Congress or Israel’s government, then they must be prepared to speak up and offer viable alternatives. In the meantime, they should avoid undermining one of the most promising prospects for limiting Iran’s nuclear program in years.” Full piece here. http://cnn.it/1jZUozq

Ambassador block - “President Obama on Friday signed legislation aimed at stopping Hamid Aboutalebi, Iran's would-be U.N. ambassador, from entering the United States,” writes Justin Sink in The Hill. “The bill, offered by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and passed unanimously in both chambers of Congress, blocks admittance to the U.S. by representatives to the United Nations determined to have ‘engaged in terrorist activity’ against the U.S. or its allies.”

--”Obama, in a signed statement attached to the measure, warned the legislation curtailed his ‘constitutional discretion’ and that he planned to treat the law as ‘advisory.’ The White House announced earlier this month that the administration would not issue a visa to Aboutalebi, but stopped short of saying whether the president would sign the bill.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/QrKKeS

Tweet - @globalzero: #Fact: Over the next 10 years, world governments will spend a staggering $1 trillion on #nuclear weapons: owl.li/vVrNM

Timing adjustment - “Amid rising tensions with Russia, the U.S. defense chief said Washington and its allies may ‘adjust’ the timing for fielding antimissile systems in Europe,” writes Rachel Oswald in Global Security Newswire. “For now, ‘we are continuing with our schedule with the enhanced adaptive approach to fulfill the commitments that we've made in the interests of Poland, Romania and our NATO partners,’ Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told reporters at the Pentagon on Thursday.”

--”Moscow views U.S. missile defenses as a challenge to nuclear stability on the continent. Washington maintains that the interceptors are intended as protection against potential missile strikes from the Middle East and do not have the technical capacity to engage Russian strategic nuclear missiles.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1jqxqyq

Open skies - “Washington's national security leaders reportedly want to bar a new, high-tech Russian plane from conducting treaty-verification flights over U.S. nuclear arms,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Under the Open Skies Treaty, which the United States and Russia have both ratified, 34 signatory nations agree to allow overflights of their territory by other member states. Planes outfitted with special sensors and cameras gather information on a range of military resources, including troop movements, combat vehicles and nuclear-arms locations. Russia for years has used the treaty to keep tabs on the U.S. atomic arsenal, as is permitted under bilateral arms-control accords. However, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff and intelligence branches are now urging the White House to deny a Russian plane authorization to conduct overflights.”

--”The recommendation reportedly is due to concerns that Russia's recently upgraded sensor capabilities would give Moscow too many explicit details about U.S. nuclear weapons. The State Department has the final say on certifying foreign aircraft to conduct overflights and is understood to support granting authorization to the Russian spy plane.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1mvxsvp

Shared perspective - “A Chinese diplomat on Thursday said he was getting closer to a shared perspective with the United States regarding the North Korean nuclear impasse,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Beijing supports an early resumption of the long-frozen, six-party talks, which have been aimed at achieving a permanent shutdown of North Korea's nuclear weapons program.”

--”We've narrowed the differences” through “in-depth discussions about the situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula and the [possible] resumption of the six-nation talks," said the Chinese special envoy for Korean Peninsula affairs.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1h5cv6Z

Sworn in - “Retired Lt. Gen. Frank Klotz has formally assumed leadership of the National Nuclear Security Administration,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Klotz, a former head of Air Force Global Strike Command, took the oath to serve as NNSA administrator at a closed-door gathering on Thursday. The development followed his confirmation by the Senate last week, and his nomination by the White House in August… Klotz's swearing-in made him the first permanent administrator of the atomic agency since former NNSA Administrator Thomas D'Agostino stepped down early last year. The semi-autonomous Energy Department branch has faced years of criticism over cost overruns and security lapses in nuclear-arms operations under its purview.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1eWSMI4

Lessons learned - “The commander of the nation's land-based nuclear arsenal said lessons can be learned in the wake of a test-cheating scandal that has shaken the confidence of the embattled intercontinental ballistic missile force,” writes Trevor Brown in the Wyoming Tribune Eagle. “If you can look in the mirror after you had a crisis to realize you can get better, it can become a good thing,” said Maj. Gen. Jack Weinstein, who leads the Cheyenne-headquartered 20th Air Force. “It may be a tough pill to swallow, but I really believe that with everything that has happened, good is going to come out of this and make us stronger… You don’t have to be perfect in testing, and you don’t have to be perfect in training. But you do have to be perfect when you are doing the mission.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/QzNFBS

Events:

--“Crisis in Ukraine, the Budapest Memorandum and Extended Deterrence.” Discussion with Steven Pifer. April 22 from 12:30 to 2:00 at National Defense University, 408 Fourth Ave., Fort McNair, Washington. RSVP by email to Nima.Gerami@ndu.edu

--“Garwin: Witness to History.” Film screening and panel discussion with Richard Garwin, Richard Breyer, Anand Kamalakar, and Charles Ferguson. April 22 from 5:00-8:00 at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, auditorium, 1200 New York Ave. NW. RSVP by email to rsvp@fas.org.

--“Making a Difference: Faith Communities Speak to the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons.” Discussion with Andrew Kanter, Daryl Kimball, and eight other speakers. April 24 from 9:30-4:00 at the U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW, Washington. http://conta.cc/1ssfg70

--“Preparing for Deep Cuts: Options for Enhancing Euro-Atlantic and International Security.” Discussion with Ulrich Kuehn, Götz Neuneck, Eugene Miasnikov, and Greg Thielmann; moderated by Steven Pifer. April 28 from 10:00-11:30 at The Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1hOGcd1

--“The United States and Iran: Can Diplomacy Prevent an Iranian Bomb?” Discussion with former Amb. Thomas Pickering and Shaul Bakhash. April 28 from 6:00-7:15 at American University, Abramson Family Founders Room, 4400 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington. RSVP here. http://conta.cc/1eEMAyC