China’s Interests in Denuclearizing North Korea

On the radar: Corker on China and DPRK; CRS on CGPS; BMD not a threat, says Rogozin; Historical context on N Korea tensions; and Richard Lugar, Knight Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire.

April 16, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Reducing risk of arms race - Chinese officials remain “nonplussed” by the prospect of a nuclearized Korean Peninsula, writes Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) in The Wall Street Journal. With the prospect of an arms race in East Asia, “Beijing's relatively blasé attitude toward Pyongyang is all the more problematic.”

--“China must understand that so long as North Korea remains a threat, the U.S. will pursue a deeper and more visible military presence in the region, and Washington will continue to showcase its military muscle in China's backyard. Moreover, Tokyo and Seoul will explore measures to strengthen their own defensive and offensive capabilities. The potential for a nuclear arms race in East Asia is real and not merely a theoretical exercise.”

--Sen. Corker’s recommendation: the U.S. and China must ”engage in an honest and frank dialogue on the future of the Korean peninsula...If the policy objective remains the denuclearization of the North, then the U.S. must get serious with China and develop a tailored strategy to persuade Beijing that the costs of its continued support for Pyongyang far outweigh any perceived benefits,” writes Sen. Corker. Full story here. http://owl.li/k6WwF

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Donilon in Moscow - National Security Advisor Tom Donilon held a series of meetings at the Russian Foreign Ministry and at the Kremlin this week, seeking Russian cooperation on nuclear weapons reductions, containing threats from Iran and North Korea, as well as stronger economic ties. “Mr. Donilon also delivered a letter to Mr. Putin from Mr. Obama that addressed many of those topics.”

--President Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin are slated to meet on the sidelines of the G8 conference this fall in Northern Ireland. David Herszenhorn at The New York Times has the story. http://nyti.ms/XP5C22

Candid - "We regret that the United States is wasting their money on missile defense and compelling us to do the same. The missile shield is nothing for us, it's a bluff. It poses no military threat, but remains a political and economic problem,” said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin on Tuesday. The Moscow Times has the quote. http://bit.ly/10a7i7Y

CRS Report - “Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues” by Amy Woolf of the Congressional Research Service. (pdf) http://bit.ly/N2vy4l

Tweet - @james_acton32: China's new defense White Paper does not repeat nuclear no-first-use pledge--though implies it. Sort of. http://t.co/sf3O6mwxaR

I don’t know, but... - Can North Korea put nuclear warheads on missiles? What missiles do they have, and can they reach the US? Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk answers all three questions with “I don’t know for sure.” But he notes that China developed a missile-deliverable weapon with only 1 more test than North Korea has attempted and the North’s successful space launch brings it much of the way to a long-range ballistic missile capability.

--Recommendations: 1) Don’t panic and call for bombing raids... 2) Don’t underestimate the threat either... 3) The U.S. government needs to provide more info on the missile threat... and 4) “it’s past time to look for ways to de-escalate the situation on the Peninsula.” http://bit.ly/11a1hC8

Perspectives on Pyongyang - “Is North Korea serious about their threats and are we on the brink of war? What influence does China exert over DPRK, and what influence is China willing to exert over the DPRK? How does the increase in tension affect South Korean President Park Guen-he’s political agenda?” Seven experts on East Asia weigh in on these questions and more at the Strategic Security Blog. Full post here. http://owl.li/k7283

Context - "I was around in the intelligence business in 1968 during the Pueblo seizure...And I was at Pacific Command headquarters in 1976 during the tree-cutting incident in the joint security area, which, of course, resulted in the murders of two American soldiers. I can recall in those two cases where I thought the tenseness, if you will, genuine tenseness, was actually greater than today. What we have today is a lot of rhetoric, a lot of belligerent rhetoric, but I think some historical context might be helpful," said Director of National Intelligence James Clapper in a House intelligence hearing.

--John Reed offers such historical context at at Foreign Policy’s “Killer Apps.” http://atfp.co/119m6Aq

Bluster and festivities - “NKorea, Marking Leader's Birthday, Shows More Ire” by Eric Talmadge of AP. http://yhoo.it/15i897j

Tweet - @ReutersIran: Iran says it test-fires new land-to-sea missile in Gulf. http://t.co/6p7HEl7DN4

Tweet - @pcdisney: Today in 1987, the Missile Technology Control Regime was adopted to control equipment/technology related to WMD.

Events:

--"Are North Korea's Threats of War Real?” Joseph DeTrani, Bonnie Glaser and David Maxwell. April 16, 6:30-8:00 p.m. @ University of California Washington Center. Details here. http://owl.li/k4D2f

-- Senate Armed Services Committee, hearing on the Defense Department budget, with Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey. April 17, 9:30 a.m. @ 216 Hart Senate Office Building. Webcast here. http://owl.li/k4Hao

--"Avoiding Armageddon: America, India, Pakistan, to the Brink and Back." Husain Haqqani and Bruce Riedel. April 17, 12:00-2:00 p.m. @ Hudson Institute. Details here. http://owl.li/k4Wro

--Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water, hearing on the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) budget, with Neile Miller, Acting Administrator, NNSA. April 17, 2:30 p.m. @ 192 Dirksen Senate Office Building. Webcast here. http://owl.li/k4EOP

--Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, hearing on nuclear forces and policies, with Madelyn Creedon, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs; Andrew Weber, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Programs; and six military officials. April 17, 2:30 p.m. @ 222 Russell Senate Office Building. Webcast here. http://owl.li/k4FDt

--”Strategic Options for Iran: Balancing Pressure With Diplomacy.” Amb. William Luers, Amb. James Dobbins, Amb. Thomas Pickering, James Walsh and Carla Hills. April 17 12:15-2:00 p.m. @ Wilson Center. Details here. http://owl.li/k4GDo

--”War With Iran,” Michael Eisenstadt, Suzanne Maloney and Geoffrey Kemp. April 18 12:00-1:45 p.m. @ Center for National Interest

Dessert:

Arms control knight - Sen. Richard Lugar, known for his “work to eliminate weapons of mass destruction,” will be knighted this evening at the British Embassy in DC.

-- While he will not hold the official title of “sir” which is reserved for subjects of the Queen, Sen. Lugar will be given the rank of a Knight Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire, joining Sens. George Mitchell, Ted Kennedy and John Warner as “senators-turned knights,” reports Kevin Robillard at Politico. Full story here. http://owl.li/k714S