Blocking Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program

June 17, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Leah Fae Cochran

Stymied - “There is mounting evidence to suggest that, whereas the sanctions regime has not prevented Tehran from operating an increased number of centrifuges for uranium-enrichment activities or adding to its stockpile of fissile material, it has stymied efforts to develop and produce the long-range ballistic missiles capable of striking potential targets in western Europe and beyond,” reports the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

--”If sanctions continue to disrupt Tehran's access to the key propellant ingredients and components needed to produce large solid-propellant rocket motors, Iranian attempts to develop and field long-range ballistic missiles could be significantly impeded, if not halted altogether.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/Nv9M3A

Outdated - The U.S. nuclear strategy is outdated and should be “first under the surgeon’s scalpel” when considering which programs in the defense budget can be cut in order to protect strong defense capabilities, argues Terri Lodge of the American Security Project.

--”The U.S. spends over $30 billion on nuclear weapons each year. There’s a lot of room in there for smart, strategy-based cuts. Trimming the nuclear budget could save billions of dollars – dollars that would be better spent on other defense programs,” writes Lodge in The Hill. http://bit.ly/PZ18jO

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Waltz - Hossain Mousavian, an ex-nuclear negotiator for Iran, pushed back against Kenneth Waltz’s assertion that an Iranian bomb would be a good thing for regional security.

--”Although Waltz’s arguments — particularly about the destabilizing effects of Israel’s nuclear arsenal — make sense, the main problem is that his core assumptions about Iran are simply wrong and do not correspond with Iran’s behavior and intentions,” writes Mousavian. Read his eight reasons why the Waltz theory is mistaken here. http://bit.ly/Q0hNnb

Tweet - @ChicoHarlan: North Koreaphiles, if you read one thing about Ri Yong Ho's possible purge, make it this, by @luke_herman http://bit.ly/Pd9eEb

Poll - A new public opinion poll by the Council on Foreign Relations found that while most Americans are concerned about Iran getting the bomb, the majority supports diplomacy over military action to prevent it.

--Other results: Americans favor sanctions over military action, do not favor an Israeli military strike, and can envision a nuclear deal. Full results here. http://on.cfr.org/Q16ifp

The other India deal- Australia is planning to become the latest country to sell uranium to India, despite India’s possession of nuclear weapons outside the NPT, according to the Global Security Newswire. Australian officials assure that any agreement would include safeguards to prevent diversion to India’s weapon programs. http://bit.ly/NtWA0l

Challenges to the minimum deterrent - China is modernizing its nuclear arsenal, but there is no convincing evidence that is expanding it. Rather, China is focused on maintaining its minimum deterrent. However, U.S. missile defense developments could cause China to increase its arsenal, writes Hui Zhang of Havard’s Project on Managing the Atom.

--Full article in The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: “How US Restraint can Keep China’s Nuclear Arsenal Small” (paywall) http://bit.ly/NGameI

SecState - Secretary of State Hillary Clinton affirmed that the U.S. and Israel are “on the same page” regarding Iran after her trip to Jerusalem yesterday.

--”Clinton said that while Washington would prefer a diplomatic resolution to the impasse with Tehran: ‘Our own choice is clear, we will use all elements of American power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon’." Reuters has the story. http://reut.rs/MAYHhc

Tweet - @USAirForce: Today in 1989, the ‪#USAF‬ conducted the first flight of the B-2.